I've done a round-up of sorts if it's of any use to you? You can download PDF with summaries from what was available at the time...

http://www.iontas.net/

Joe

Nice summary Chalkie.

Indeed. ******i is one of the less nauseating long range forecasters, but his forecast last winter was rather poor. Not that you can hold that against him. He made a guess, it didn't quite work out

Cold end December?

Chilly November too

Issued: Saturday 8th October 2011

Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

*November*

It looks as if low pressure will at first be anchored to the west or southwest High pressure sitting over the UK, at this time of year is a recipe for typical autumnal weather; we will be chasing areas of cloud, determining the exact characteristics of the daily weather from area to area, a broad overview being essentially dry, settled and for the most part cool, offset by pleasant mid-autumn sunshine.

The Atlantic takes over through the middle period, so milder and more unsettled conditions sweeping eastward later with a generally westerly for a time, high pressure builds back again, so settled weather establishing once more.

As high pressure edges westward towards the end of the month it is possible that the first plunge of 'true' Arctic air could push south, some snow showers for a time over northern hills and mountain tops.

A colder and frosty end to the month is anticipated as this colder air becomes trapped beneath a developing area of high pressure.

*December*

Cold air and settled weather may character the opening few days of the month, this however looks as if it'll be shunted out-of-the-way by low pressure and milder Atlantic conditions, rain and strong winds for all areas and perhaps preceded by some temporary wintry mixture across the north of the UK.

The Atlantic may rule the roost for the first 10 days, thereafter winter is indicated to unfold in perhaps quite a dramatic fashion. Low pressure looks as if it'll be halted over the UK as pressure builds to the east and north of the UK, a southerly flow swinging into the southeast and east, much colder continental air being drawn into the country, wintry precipitation perhaps widespread.

Too early to say whether this cold weather will extend into the Christmas period just yet, winter 2011-12 may see some 'chopping and changing', but essential the prognosis is 'rather cold and lengthy'?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=206&FILE=sea&DAY=20111008 

Interesting outlook from the guys at Weatheronline.

"Britain was not as cold as the previous winter?"

It was for a time  here in the south .....colder and more snow than we have seen in  many a year.

I do a probability-based winter forecast every year with the main forecast posted here at the beginning of December. In previous years I have posted an early forecast at the beginning of November but this year I'm posting a very early one now. This early forecast is not as detailed as the main forecast which I'll post here at the beginning of December. I hesitate to post this forecast because it is the most striking one I've come up with in the five years that I've been doing them. No doubt this will change as we get closer to winter.

Probability for temperature anomalies in central England for winter 2011/12

Above average: 34%

Below average: 66%

Monthly probabilities of temperature anomalies (deviation from long-term average)

Dec: Below average - 62%

Jan: Below average - 69%

Feb: Below average - 67%

Thanks Justin.

The odds staked for a cold winter in your view, then?

Hi Gavin,

At the moment, yes. What I didn't post that there is currently a one in three likelihood that January and early February will be very cold to severe. 

Oh no, they've got to you too, Justin

LOL! I'm should say that I'm completely dispassionate about this and my gut feeling has always been that this winter will be on the mild side. That's why I hesistated posting this so early. What a laugh, eh? 

Is it the warm/dry October whats done it?

Sod's Law says it has to be

Crickey! If I remember right, your forecast is based on statistical relationships between monthly CET values leading up to the winter months? 

I think it's worth watching the developing la nina as it looks like it could be moderate rather than weak - based on the latest sub surface anomalies anyway.

Yes, absolutely. Plus ENSO state (since 1901), North Atlantic SSTs and multiple indice solar output (since 1996).

Not a nice day.

Met Office are saying on Twitter that no Snow is forecast at low levels for at least the next month and reports of -20c in just weeks are wrong, just the typical British media over doing things.

Someone asked this,

@metoffice I saw a headline yesterday suggesting -20 degree temps on the way; is this true?

@catakinja Not according to our forecasts, no sign of unusually cold temperatures

whatsoever.. Probably just the media...Thanks, ^JVS

And this was Asked

@metoffice is there going to be snow anytime soon?

@homez78 Maybe over the Scottish mountains, but otherwise none forecast in the foreseeable future! Regards, ^JVS

So anyone expecting snow at low levels within at least the next month away from the Scottish mountains will be disappointed.

Latest update from GP over at Netweather

It's interesting to note that the upward trend in AAM happend before the current MJO wave began to develop, possibly the two facets of the atmosphere-ocean dynamical process responding to the same lead ? We have had three strong +MT events now, all driving the GWO into a high angular momentum base state.

Not sure we can confidently count on AAM crashing anytime soon. October's GLAAM value should be unprecedented in the 53 yr time series in terms of going from a negative value in September through to a positive value in October.

Our closest analogue in this respect is 1995 with a disconnect between ENSO and the atmospheric circulation, which may well last until December. The QBO is also interesting. Lastest daily values actually have it weakening at 30 hPa (less easterly), with the lower stratospheric levels still showing a westerly wind.

All of which means that ENSO forecasts for the winter mean squat right now

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-technical-model-discussion/page__view__findpost__p__2142275

They also said 2009/10 was going to be a mild winter and also said summer 2009 would be a bbq summer. Did they ever predict the record heatwave, at the end of the last month? Do you take it for gospel?

It is October for goodness sake! Do we really need to take there word on it, too? I doubt we will get snow, only in Scotland, but it is not 100 percent.

Do you ever look at what the MetO say, or do you just believe the media

The MetO have done pretty well in recent years.  Based on their actual forecasts and not media (mis)interpretation of them

The Met Office's short term forecasts are very accurate but their long term ones are notoriously rubbish, after all they don't publish their winter and summer outlook anymore because of this.

ie Stating the obvious

Sad state of affairs when they have to say that something which won't happen won't happen .....

One could put a number of weather events that were "supposed" to happen down to misinterpretation or misrepresentation of what the Met Office said, but not the "BBQ summer" episode. That phrase was used by at least one BBC forecaster during a TV forecast (think it was Darren Bett) in the spring of 2009, so in that case there was no way they could turn round and claim that what they said was taken out of context. The BBQ summer phrase was entirely the creation of the Met Office themselves, not The Sun or any other newspaper or media outlet.