Indeed. When you have to endure relatively write-off summers every year, you can't help but be excited by returning to interesting weather in winter and even autumn.

When it was -13.3C before 3am, it was -21.2C.  Then on 3rd Feb 2009 after getting a foot of powdery snow on 2nd, the clouds refused to clear off as forecasted and only cleared just before dawn, the air temps was -8.5C and the snow surface temps recorded -18.2C so that 9.7C colder that time.  It so disappointing that I never had a chance to record full clear night under the fresh snow cover since 1991.  Was -12C that time but the snow cover was less and not fresh on the last day of the truly best cold spelll.

Now if you said -19C until dawn, I would had work out around -27C to -28C or even -30C?  During frosty weather I get around 3-4C colder on the grass temps than air temps.

Now as we are exiting ths terrible summer here I am wondering when we will ever get a first wall to wall sunshine being recorded here since May here.  Will September deliver it?

 Dec 2010.It was an amazing and memorable month.I'm only sorry  that I didn't stir my stumps and go up north to  see first hand  the magic combination of blue skies and deep powder snow which is so rare in trhe UK.As far as next winter is concerned I'd like to see widespread heavy snow ,preferably accompanied by blizzard conditions-strong winds and deep drifting snow.I'd settle for a couple of weeks of that even if the rest of the winter is mild.

Are you sure?  I'm not exactly a million miles from your location and December was a terrific month and freezing cold with a good amount of snow.

Is West Ewell affected by the London UHI?

Yikes. Sadly I doubt -19C lasted for very long in Topcliffe, probably occurred just before dawn, but the snow surface temperature would still be very low. I'll have to remember this next winter (assuming we get a cold one).

And yeah, we've had no wall to wall sunshine here either, plenty of partly cloudy days but the cloud, even if it's just a bit, always appears eventually, last time I saw wall to wall sunshine would have to be March or April. 

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Brize_Norton/01-1963/36490.htm

Let's hope for a January like this. 

Would love to experience something like it.. mean max -0.3c.. blimey

I recollect from a post by a TWO member in the Penrith area that December 2010 was colder than January 1963 in that region. This was not the case for the majority of Britain of course.

I can see many members here been rather dissapointed this winter if CFS is right,

Percipiataion is either normal below normal for everywhere from October to February except for Scotland during Janurary, November is looking very dry for England and Wales and Northern Ireland.



As for temperatures well firstly just look at how warm Eastern Europe is during September, whilst the UK is below average. It appears November will be cold as per 2010, December could be below normal, but then as per 2011 Janurary 2012 looks like been above normal for the UK and Ireland then February looks been above normal nationwide.



Now if we take a look at the 3 month values a dry Autum and Winter is looking likely again,



And if we take a look at the temperatures we can see that were above normal from Janurary right throught to May

The snow and cold fans won't be happy.

The CFS charts have a generally dry winter.This is hardly suggests a strong zonal flow with continual depressions and heavy rainfall of a  strongly  positive NAO.

It looks like a weak NAO with HP to the SW/S/Or SE of the UK.

The exact position of HP will have a bearing on tgemeratures but strong northern blocking is not indicated.

Could be a Bartlett / Eurotrash dominated winter? 1988 came after a run of mostly colder winters too.

And after an equally dire summer if I recall correctly

I do hope so because it been awful to see run of 5 poor summers so at some point it going to end and return to normal winters, and normal summers with occasional nationwide settled/heatwaves and thunderstorms to return. Also sunny days regardless of the temps as it doesn't have to be hot to be sunny, it can be sunny at 20C or 25C.  I always known that UK had good thunderstorms in my childhood days and during my 20's days so I miss that.    I love snow and deep cold but I rather lose this in trade for better summers and allow more outdoor stuff than being stuck indoors most of this summer.  Look at the recent 5 wash out days in a space of 8 days this month and that is bad enough to be stuck indoors that early.

That's where we differ the most, I would happily trade good summers for colder winters. 

I'm not bothered if February turns out to be the mildest one ever, just as long as we get some snow and aslong as at least one winter month is cold, it doesn't have to be 10 feet of the stuff or -20c, just no zonal muck please!

Reading between the lines Brian, are you starting to hint towards what your winter LRF will be this year?

Along with your recent comments on your Buzz, are you slanting towards a mild, mobile winter?

Probably early days, but you do seem to be hinting at something a lot different to the last three winters.

Slightly confused as to what some people read in these charts.
It will always change but if you base on these charts.
There is no suggestion of mobile wet and windy.
Rainfal looks at best average but mainly below even for scotland.
Like last year the coldest weather is before the new year and did we complain about that this year.
In fact the blue is very strong in regards to below temps and opposite after the new year.
Seems to be interesting before xmas.
However it does sort of look like a mid euro high or just to the south east of us jan on wards.

It looks like a weak NAO with HP to the SW/S/Or SE of the UK.

Originally Posted by: Snow Wolf 

Could be a Bartlett / Eurotrash dominated winter? 1988 came after a run of mostly colder winters too.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Reading between the lines Brian, are you starting to hint towards what your winter LRF will be this year?

Along with your recent comments on your Buzz, are you slanting towards a mild, mobile winter?

Probably early days, but you do seem to be hinting at something a lot different to the last three winters.

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

So will the Tabloid headlines soon scream "Gazey calls a mild 'un" this year?

Originally Posted by: roger63 

Yes but whats a "mild un"
2-3 weeks severe cold and 3 months of mild.
I would take that any year.

My thoughts exactly. The charts are showing pretty much a repeat of last year, and most of us were pretty happy with that.

It's too early to tell. It's easy to generate some good publicity by issuing an early winter lrf, but as I've always said, I like to see how the weather patterns evolve during autumn. A couple of things I'll be looking out for are:

1) Anomalous warmth in north western Europe during September
2) NWP repeatedly suggesting cold spinning south at about 75 deg, north / north east of the UK from mid-October onwards

Well on those charts NW Europe looks warm in Sept, apart from the Uk which is shroaded in bright blue, lol!!

Wow, a wetter than average spring possible next year!

My gut feelings have been for a lot of dry weather this Autumn and Winter, though September looks like it could be quite wet.

Even presuming the CFS is correct at that range (a foolhardy venture), I reckon that a transition from colder than average to milder than average could actually take long enough that January would end up near average overall. I have a suspicion that CFS overcooks the temperatures from high pressure dominated weather in winter.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbz700Mon.gif

I'm staggered by the strength of the predicted pressure anomalies for Jan and Feb, given the range. February could be, ehem, pleasant...

I'd happily trade poor summers like '95, '03 and '06 for colder winters       At least in good summers like we've had this year it's possible to go out most days instead of being stuck indoors because of the heat