Every LRF is a hopecast. The fact is they are scientifically impossible with any accuracy and consistency. I'll never cease to be amazed that people even bother to read them let alone discuss the merits of them. Flip a coin in the air and play heads or tails. It's probably more fun

 

I'm sure our Brian and his polar bears will love you for saying that Matty.

Every LRF is a hopecast. The fact is they are scientifically impossible with any accuracy and consistency. I'll never cease to be amazed that people even bother to read them let alone discuss the merits of them. Flip a coin in the air and play heads or tails. It's probably more fun

Obviously all LRFs are hopecasts but I as YD said already the trend is pretty clear (so obviously people are going to go with the flow and forecast a cold winter, so their chances of being right are higher). A winter of 88/89 would be very unusual and milder than any winter I saw over the past 10 years.. and mild winters in this country usually mean zonal dross with days, weeks, months of rain and mist.. yuck

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Every LRF is a hopecast. The fact is they are scientifically impossible with any accuracy and consistency. I'll never cease to be amazed that people even bother to read them let alone discuss the merits of them. Flip a coin in the air and play heads or tails. It's probably more fun

 Hopecast or Guesscast?

I tend to agree with your overall critique of LRF's - but whilst some LRF'ers try to be impartial, others seem very influenced by what they hope will happen. Usually it's pretty obvious to discerne between the two

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Every LRF is a hopecast. The fact is they are scientifically impossible with any accuracy and consistency. I'll never cease to be amazed that people even bother to read them let alone discuss the merits of them. Flip a coin in the air and play heads or tails. It's probably more fun

Obviously all LRFs are hopecasts but I as YD said already the trend is pretty clear (so obviously people are going to go with the flow and forecast a cold winter, so their chances of being right are higher). A winter of 88/89 would be very unusual and milder than any winter I saw over the past 10 years.. and mild winters in this country usually mean zonal dross with days, weeks, months of rain and mist.. yuck

They are awful yes but I would trade that in as they often give us near to decent summers and sometimes very hot summers like in 1994/1995 winter was very mild but followed by scorching summer.

Every LRF is a hopecast. The fact is they are scientifically impossible with any accuracy and consistency. I'll never cease to be amazed that people even bother to read them let alone discuss the merits of them. Flip a coin in the air and play heads or tails. It's probably more fun

Obviously all LRFs are hopecasts but I as YD said already the trend is pretty clear (so obviously people are going to go with the flow and forecast a cold winter, so their chances of being right are higher). A winter of 88/89 would be very unusual and milder than any winter I saw over the past 10 years.. and mild winters in this country usually mean zonal dross with days, weeks, months of rain and mist.. yuck

They are awful yes but I would trade that in as they often give us near to decent summers and sometimes very hot summers like in 1994/1995 winter was very mild but followed by scorching summer.

Each to their own I suppose. I myself would happily trade good summers for severe winters, but I'm weird like that. 

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No, the trend isn't clear at all. I've seen entire ens suites flip overnight more times than I care to mention. Trends are only relevant at the time you look at them. They are not an indicator to be taking with any assurance. The history of this forum alone shows you how quickly things can change. LRFs are there for amusement only, although I find them about as amusing as being sick, especially when you get people banging on about their correct guess as if they've stumbled on some miracle technique and we should all listen and be amazed.

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Each to their own I suppose. I myself would happily trade good summers for severe winters, but I'm weird like that. 

Nothing weird about that and that my love about Continental climate that you can get hot summers and cold winters to your doorstep guaranteed.   When we had a cold Dec spell I thought we may have a hotter summer which did proved well in April which was just barely 4 months after the Dec freeze and manage to get many days of 25C easily which was a good effort for a temperate island zone. It was down to coward AZ being a main culprit that refused to move east entirely since May for no reason and sent lows over us like a tennis ball after being served by AZ racket.

Each to their own I suppose. I myself would happily trade good summers for severe winters, but I'm weird like that. 

Nothing weird about that and that my love about Continental climate that you can get hot summers and cold winters to your doorstep guaranteed.   When we had a cold Dec spell I thought we may have a hotter summer which did proved well in April which was just barely 4 months after the Dec freeze and manage to get many days of 25C easily which was a good effort for a temperate island zone. It was down to coward AZ being a main culprit that refused to move east entirely since May for no reason and sent lows over us like a tennis ball after being served by AZ racket.

Agree with both those points. With cold winters we should see hotter summers, even sub-polar Yellowknife in northern Canada sees hotter weather than we do, and while I am not the biggest fan of summer I would like to enjoy it while it is here, which is why I am looking forward to winter, so we can get some real weather for a change as summers in UK recently have been dull and boring. 

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although I find them about as amusing as being sick,

Many years back on a school trip we went up to the top of Rochester Castle. While leaning over the railings, one of my friends was unfortunately sick (he'd been on about how quesy he felt as we were climbing the stairs). His puke landed on some unlucky Chinese tourists far below, who started exlaiming loudly once the unexpected shower landed.

It was one of those things that you know shouldn't be amusing (after all, who'd like random sick on themselves) yet pretty much everyone cracked up.

So yes, being sick can be funny.

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mild winters in this country usually mean zonal dross with days, weeks, months of rain and mist.. yuck

And wind-storms, which bring their own interest. Although I'll freely admit they're probably just as disruptive to the general population as snow.

As posted in the Climate Forum:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/images3/nino34SSTMon.gif

2010?

mild winters in this country usually mean zonal dross with days, weeks, months of rain and mist.. yuck

And wind-storms, which bring their own interest. Although I'll freely admit they're probably just as disruptive to the general population as snow.

Why I don't like mild winters

http://bubl.ac.uk/org/tacit/tac/tac48/talesfro.htm

A foot of rain fell on me - and my ice axe, crampons and severe cold weather gear - that night

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If sunspots were at a record high, right now, and we were experiencing a record breaking hot summer then surely a LRF suggesting a milder winter would have some credence. Like wise a run of colder winters, low sunspot activity, and cool summers would suggest a very mild winter would be less likely. To me this kind of thinking does allow you to make an educated guess at future weather, be it summer or winter.

Now I really don't pay any attention to the detailed LRFs but a general theme based on the above type of thinking gives some credit to those attempting a general winter forecast.

Hope you're right, Chris. A mild winter would be a dream. I'd relish the whinging of a certain unnamed few on here if it were to happen  After the last few winters containing noteworthy cold spells, hopefully this winter will be a traditionally mild one  And for those who choose to whinge, I give you your own argument back about summer: If you want cold winters all winter then move to another country

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Hope you're right, Chris. A mild winter would be a dream. I'd relish the whinging of a certain unnamed few on here if it were to happen  After the last few winters containing noteworthy cold spells, hopefully this winter will be a traditionally mild one  And for those who choose to whinge, I give you your own argument back about summer: If you want cold winters all winter then move to another country

 

I didn't say we'd have a mild winter  just general thoughts on LRFs in general, and that I think they can have some relevence in a very broad sense.

Anyway Tom P predicted 2012 to be "the" winter years ago so it looks like your going to have to get your scarf, hat and gloves out come December

I was playing the role of YD: Picking out personally favourable words and scenarios and using them to my advantage and preference

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If sunspots were at a record high, right now, and we were experiencing a record breaking hot summer then surely a LRF suggesting a milder winter would have some credence. Like wise a run of colder winters, low sunspot activity, and cool summers would suggest a very mild winter would be less likely. To me this kind of thinking does allow you to make an educated guess at future weather, be it summer or winter.

Now I really don't pay any attention to the detailed LRFs but a general theme based on the above type of thinking gives some credit to those attempting a general winter forecast.

Not sure why it allowing N America getting all the hot weather despite the low sunspot activity, because if that the case then cool poor summer should occur everywnere, not just the UK.

Dont have a clue what this winter will be like and dont care..hate it...if i could live down under when we get winter id be gone quicker than the postman seen leaving my house on several occasions with a red face and his name aint pat

http://youtu.be/yiKGF14Dahc

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mild winters in this country usually mean zonal dross with days, weeks, months of rain and mist.. yuck

And wind-storms, which bring their own interest. Although I'll freely admit they're probably just as disruptive to the general population as snow.

Why I don't like mild winters

http://bubl.ac.uk/org/tacit/tac/tac48/talesfro.htm

A foot of rain fell on me - and my ice axe, crampons and severe cold weather gear - that night

Yes, I've been in a similar situation in the Cuillin. We set off from Slig in about 20cms of level snow that had fallen overnight to meet up with some mates at the bothy at Coruisk for a birthday party. This was early November, so the snow at sea level was quite early. Everything was iced up under the snow, it was a nightmare hike. In the end we had to turn back and decided to console ourselves with a few drams by the fire at the slig hotel (the nice bit). My boot laces were iced up when we got to the hotel, had to thaw them out to get them undone.

So, headed off home and woke up the next day to wet, wet, wet. It had rained all night, and a very rapid thaw took place. When my mates finally got out of Coruisk they told us of the nightmare journey, and basically got soaked with all their ice gear. How the weather changed from frozen to mild!

Ah, the West Highlands weather......fond memories of very changeable weather day. No harm was done in the end though 

To keep on thread, no idea about this winter.....time will tell.