GFS Op 0z - the W/NW-lies continue until Sun 11th as the HP stays offshore to the SW; then it moves in to form a ridge over Britain. That ridge resolves into HP over Scotland Thu 15th, and then as it declines LP moves up from the south 1010mb N France Sun 18th. Again followed by HP, a 'toppler' from the Atlantic Wed 21st.

ECM - additionally to GFS has LP 990mb crossing N Scotland in the westerlies Tue 13th before the HP gets established

AIFS - London, maxima dropping to 15-18C to Fri 16th then 12-14C to Mon 19th, small amounts of rain on several days but heavy on Thu 15th. Edinburgh, maxima 10-12C to Fri 16th then 9-10C, Moderate to heavy rain Fri 9th, Sun 11th, Tue 13th, Fri 16th

GEFS briefly - I have to go out - a couple of dips in temp with rain Wed 7th (in S) and Fri 9th (generally) after which mean temp stays near norm but a spread of ens members develops, op rather cold at times. Chances of rain increase everywhere after Tue 13th but especially in N & W

GFS Op 00z- after Friday, pressure builds  across Britain for the weekend, but LP near Iceland is active and SW-lies return for next week from Sun 11th. Separate areas of LP then detach from the parent LP near Iceland to keep Britain unsettled, 985mb Sun 18th off E Scotland then 985mb S Norway Thu 22nd, both bringing cooler weather from the NW.

ECM - less good over the coming weekend than GFS; HP fails to develop and LP over the N Sea brings in NW-lies. This model agrees on the SW-lies at the start of next week albeit with disturbances in the flow near NW Scotland, but at the end (Fri  16th) produces a large blocking high W of Ireland.

AIFS - London, maxima mostly 15-18C then dropping away after Mon 19th; rain Wed 7th and Mon 19th with occasional splashes in between. Edinburgh, maxima 13-15C again with a drop after 19th (to 8C), rain at intervals Fri 9th, Tue 13th, Thu 15th & Tue 20th. This model was suggesting extra warmth on Fri 9th but has dropped the idea today.

GFES - two brief cold spells Thu 8th and Sun 11th, else mean temp near norm which is agreed by ens members to Thu 15th, after which mean stays near norm but a spread develops with e.g. op going cold  and control mild (+/-5C from mean). Rain Wed 7th (for England), Fri 9th (generally), then most likely around Wed 14th and after Sat 17th for England but could occur any time from the 14h in Scotland. 

Just watched the Met Office video forecast for tomorrow. Saying rain is going to pep up and have forecast up to 50mm for exactly here tomorrow! That's a bit like forecasting 2 foot of snow for Torquay this winter! I'll believe it when I see it but I would be quite happy with 20mm. 😊

Are we going to get those wonderful colours of Autumn again 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_aifs.php?ech=6&mode=0&carte=0&&aifs=2 

Just a snapshot of current temperatures over Siberia, and as you can see plenty of cold already 

AIFS had done well with this first 6 days of warm nice weather here and was true warm temps that gone higher than the fake ones last month.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=aifs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1

 Almost like 1995 October and really want this to come off the warmer, drier and mostly settled weather is much needed to reduce the Autumal rubbish and to dive into winter with snow and cold prospects. 

Since those three clusters only account for a third of the ensemble output, there must be all manner of other options?

GFS Op - by Tue 13th the last LP shown on FAX scoots northwards leaving Britain sandwiched between it and HP 1030mb Norway with very mild SW-lies (turn the Central Heating off again!) and probably dry for the east coast. Another HP cell then moves across Britain from the SW so the chart for Fri 16th is a re-load of Tuesday's chart. The LP resident near Iceland than projects a broad trough southwards; at its maximum extent there is a local LP 1005mb Wed 21st off East Anglia. After that, back to the westerlies though another HP cell is forming off to the SW by Fri 23rd.

ECM - agrees with GFS to Tue 13th but the next HP cell does not move across Britain but on Fri 16th has stopped and formed a block off SW Ireland with light N-lies for Britain.

AIFS - London, maxima not far from 15C, some warmer days in week 1, some cooler ones in week 2; rain in small amounts today, Mon 12th and Fri 16th. Edinburgh, maxima around 13C, likewise occasionally warmer week 1 and cooler week 2; rain Fri 9th, Wed 14th and Fri 16th (note; does not agree with GFS)

GEFS - a couple of colder dips (to 5C below norm) Thu 8th and Sat 10th before mean temp closely supported by ens members returns to norm Mon 12th. A modest spread of ens members  then develops, mean staying near norm, op and control sometimes cooler. Rain today for the SE, more widely Fri 9th; then for the south  at intervals with low confidence Tue 13th, Fri 16th and more certainly after Mon 19th but for Scotland and NW England more continuous and more likely after 13th.

GFS Op 0z - picks up the idea of limited progression of fronts on Monday 12th as HP rises over Norway and winds turn SW-ly, strong in NW Britain. That HP stays around the Baltic and with a separate HP to the SW of Ireland, Britain is in a shallow col from Wed 14th to Sun 18th; then the two areas of HP link up across N Scotland and shallow LP 1020mb moves into S England from France.

ECM - like GFS but with some northerly air feeding into the col so cooler; and the HP areas link across C Britain

AIFS - London, week 1 maxima mostly 15-17C then week 2 from Sat 17th mostly 13-15C; some rain, not heavy, Fridays 9th and 16th, Mondays 12th and 19th. Edinburgh, maxima mostly 12-14C but with a few warmer days near 15C from Tue 13th; rain, Fri 9th, Tue 13th, Thu 15th and Sun 18th, again not heavy.

GEFS - down to 5C below norm today and Sun 11th, else mean and ens support a little above norm to Thu 15th, then a general scramble with mean remaining near norm. Rain Fri 9th and Tue 13th (not much of the latter in the south), then several runs have some rain at almost any time as the above scramble develops, highest chance 15th-17th and in the north,

GFS Op 00z - keeps the westerlies (NW-ly at first, SW-ly later) as in FAX going until next weekend; then the westerlies are blocked by HP cells (1025mb Dover Sat 17th and 24th ) and an intervening trough (985mb, Tyne, Thu 22nd) and winds switch between S-ly and N-ly

ECM - agrees with GFS until Sat 17th, when the HP doesn't last and a weak trough moves across on Mon 19th.

AIFS - London, maxima 15-18C through to Fri 23rd, occasional very light rain in week 1, just traces in week 2. Edinburgh, maxima 12-15C to the 23rd (at the lower end at first), significant rain now, Tue 13th and Fri 16th. The trough on the 22nd shown in GFS doesn't feature here.

GEFS - after cool on Sun 11th and mild on Tue 13th, mean temp stays near norm from then until Sun 25th but with little agreement from ens members for the last ten days of that period. Rain now and Tue 13th, after that in the south chances but little certainty, more probable in north especially northwest.

GFS Op 0z - the SWlies above pump up some HP for next weekend 17th/18th, but that moves on and allows LP from Iceland to move southwards 955mb Faeroes Wed 21st with cold N-lies on its western flank, as it moves south and re-arranges itself 970mb N Ireland Fri 23rd. Although this fills there is (in FI, of course) an interesting 'dartboard ]' storm 955mb Ireland (count the isobars!) Sun 25th

ECM - agrees with GFS to 17th but then keeps the HP as a feature over Scotland, no sign of any weather from the north

AIFS - London, mostly 14-15C but warmer Tue 13th - Thu 15th (to 18C), rain Sat 17th and splashes at other times. Edinburgh, again a consistent spell 12-13C with warmer interlude to 15C on same dates as London, but rain Tue 13th and Thu 15th

GEFS -mean temp below norm 11th and 17th, above norm 13th and 16th, with ens support, then near norm in the middle of an ens spread with op (cool) and control (mild) going different ways. Rain 13th, 16th and probably after 20th

Note; I'm away next week to Thu and will only have smartphone with me, so expect only one-liners instead of a full review (the small screen and small keypad make it too much of an effort compared to the usual laptop). Don't be afraid to step in!

GFS Op - the above followed by HP moving north across Britain next weekend, only to be replaced by LP 990mb covering the country and filled with cold air, Thu 22nd, slowly filling over the SE. Yesterday's dartboard has unsurprisingly been written out.

ECM - differs from GFS as it dis yesterday, keeping the weekend HP in place, no LP from the north

AIFS - London, quite warm at first (20C next Tue), sliding down to 12C Sun 25th, almost no rain. Edinburgh, 15C to Thu, then quickly down to 10C and staying there, some rain Tue & Thu this week