The Weather Outlook

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Hungry Tiger
17 September 2026 16:48:21
I'll start it. Heatwave No7 , No6 if we exclude the smallish one in I think mid to late August. However,  models are giving a pretty good indication that next week will deliver a very good warm or hot spell even. 🙂🙂🙂
Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



+2
Jiries
17 September 2026 20:07:58
Really excited about the much warmer and more welcome drier weather as it normal for September to get a week or so of settled weather that failed to deliver so far this month.  I think AIFS was the one that brought this idea among with GFS but a tad lower 850's is now slowly catching up to AIFS levels.  
The Beast from the East
18 September 2026 01:29:36
Not sure if this passes the definition of a heatwave!  But we'll see
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Hungry Tiger
18 September 2026 03:11:41

Not sure if this passes the definition of a heatwave!  But we'll see

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

25C and over at this time of year. I think next week we should clear those sort of temperatures.  🙂🙂🙂

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Crepuscular Ray
18 September 2026 07:31:12
Just like the previous 6 heatwaves, it's looking increasingly like an England and Wales warm spell. 

Pressure doesn't rise enough over Scotland to stop the relentless Atlantic coming over the top.

Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Jiries
18 September 2026 07:31:56

25C and over at this time of year. I think next week we should clear those sort of temperatures.  🙂🙂🙂

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

After September 15th to 31st October, 25C is a heatwave threshold and same for April while May 28c, June to August 30C.

Today the last day of the cool airmass and slowly going up next week with the peak around 25th had been firmly.   Hope GFS is on the money for continuing dry and warm to October, there some support for continuing.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 September 2026 07:36:32
Not nailed on. GFS op & control very bullish about this, other GFS runs less so, and ECM doesn't want to know.
I can calculate the movements of stars, but not the madness of men - Isaac Newton

Chichester 12m asl

scillydave
18 September 2026 08:05:49
Well the 0z GFS is definitely a scorcher - the second half would have been a decent spell in high Sumner during my youth. Max above 28c for a good week and widespread highs above 25c across the Southern half of the UK

A few date records to come if it's on the money. (22nd, 23rd and 29th are the ones to watch).

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

The Beast from the East
18 September 2026 08:40:00

Well the 0z GFS is definitely a scorcher - the second half would have been a decent spell in high Sumner during my youth. Max above 28c for a good week and widespread highs above 25c across the Southern half of the UK

A few date records to come if it's on the money. (22nd, 23rd and 29th are the ones to watch).

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

Control is very good as well.

Shame about ECM, though it has been poor all summer

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Jiries
18 September 2026 09:06:52

Control is very good as well.

Shame about ECM, though it has been poor all summer

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I don't use them I just use GFS and AIFS for ensembles and some charts so ignore it Beast.  We need the warm and more welcome drier weather to dry out properly for the last time until the permanently wet ground start next month.  

The Beast from the East
18 September 2026 10:31:39
latest GFS keeps it hot like the 00z.   Though of course its mainly a southern affair, a pattern we have seen all summer

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

+1
Saint Snow
18 September 2026 11:38:09

latest GFS keeps it hot like the 00z.   Though of course its mainly a southern affair, a pattern we have seen all summer

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Define 'southern' 

UserPostedImage

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

tierradelfuego
18 September 2026 19:47:16
Think it's beginning to look a lot like... a very pleasant warm spell but not exactly a heatwave, maybe a day or two of around 25 for small pockets of England. No complaints, will enjoy my day off on Monday up to my nicky nacky noos in a river in Salisbury and maybe a final bbq or two of the summer-ish period.
Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

Jiries
18 September 2026 20:16:32

Think it's beginning to look a lot like... a very pleasant warm spell but not exactly a heatwave, maybe a day or two of around 25 for small pockets of England. No complaints, will enjoy my day off on Monday up to my nicky nacky noos in a river in Salisbury and maybe a final bbq or two of the summer-ish period.

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 

25-26c also to be reach in here with 10-11C 850s or 12c on AIFS.   Hope today unwanted rain is the final last rain for this month.

The Beast from the East
19 September 2026 02:06:03
UserPostedImage

pub run should break some records.

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Jiries
19 September 2026 19:08:38
Still looking very good with 25th the peak of the warm while rest of the week sunny, warm and dry. so can't wait.  I been viewing the 9 day charts on GFS, ECM and GEM and all looking superb this coming week.  I am viewing those since other side hoping to see temperatures charts but instead I just read about complaints posts against this poster W.F123 from Depreston kept putting misleading charts which upset the new member that made complaint today.  I googled where is Depreston but does not exist in the UK only closest is Preston in the far NW UK.  Preston also will get some share of nice weather next week.
The Beast from the East
20 September 2026 02:18:33
Long range ECM would break records for October but we have been led up the garden path before.  Every time we see a plume, its get squashed by the jet nearer reality

UserPostedImage

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
20 September 2026 03:15:53

Still looking very good with 25th the peak of the warm while rest of the week sunny, warm and dry. so can't wait.  I been viewing the 9 day charts on GFS, ECM and GEM and all looking superb this coming week.  I am viewing those since other side hoping to see temperatures charts but instead I just read about complaints posts against this poster W.F123 from Depreston kept putting misleading charts which upset the new member that made complaint today.  I googled where is Depreston but does not exist in the UK only closest is Preston in the far NW UK.  Preston also will get some share of nice weather next week.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Preston is not in the *far* NW of the UK!!

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

+1
johncs2016
20 September 2026 10:56:28

Preston is not in the *far* NW of the UK!!

Originally Posted by: Col 

It's not even as far north as Scotland which a lot of southerners don't seem to realise.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

doctormog
20 September 2026 11:01:59
Arguably, by several metrics, Preston is in the southern half of the U.K.
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

+1
The Beast from the East
20 September 2026 11:31:54
Still a hot signal for the end of the month, but lets see if it gets pushed away

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Jiries
20 September 2026 13:40:36
21.8C outside now so the start of the warm to very warm spell.  Mostly sunny and the conservatory hit 35c despite some hazy and some clouds this morning.  I wonder if 38-40C can be reached this coming week if very sunny and 25-26c outside making the latest high temperatures just before October.
Ally Pally Snowman
21 September 2026 15:07:39
A few places have hit 24c , so not heatwave levels but very pleasant.  Feels very warm in the sun.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
21 September 2026 17:24:15
26C here for garden and 11C last night while the conservatory was 36.3C and 15.6c this morning.   Very nice drying day and tomorrow expected the same levels as today.
The Beast from the East
22 September 2026 01:31:10
Oh dear.  A few days ago we were looking at record temps, now potentially damaging storms.  Perhaps the El Nino effect already. 

UserPostedImage

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

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