Tonight will be cloudy and wet with outbreaks of rain moving in from the west, which will be heavy at times. It will be a breezy night.

I won't hold my breath, though. Very dry again here, with the soil dusty.

London ensembles show quite a big spike for tomorrow while here is little so i hope to miss out the unwanted rain here, but hope the south that needed the rain to get it.   Those channel runner rains are always very heavy rain never light from my experience living in Epsom before.

Yes indeed, my Windows app is saying 1cm.   Not a great deal, but enough to green up the grass a bit more

How far north did it get in the end? Did it make Cambridge, Suffolk and Norfolk?

I think it went as far as Manchester yesterday while here was light to moderate rain.  Most forecast show rain south of M4 but went much further north.  So very likely those areas also get rain because Manchester is further north than here but got rain so once it move east it will reach all areas over the East.   Time to put this thread to bed now as the wonderful 2 months dry spell that we only get in a year out of 12 months like what SunnyG pointed out on other side.   Stubb lake already full quickly after interesting low levels in August which I took pictures of it.  Next time i visit the lake when it more interesting is being iced over.  Last time was very thick ice was in Jan 2025 and little this year but was not cold enough at night.   

Christchurch,used to go there a lot when I was courting ,used to go out rowing on the river,visit Tucktonia,a really naff but funny amusement park and have a meal at the Copper Skillet which is now sadly gone. Late 70,s a whole different world to now.

In accordance with last week's warnings, four areas in Scotland which include NE Fife, parts of Tayside and even extending into the south of Aberdeenshire have had their water scarcity status upgraded all the way up to significant water scarcity status with water extraction restrictions being imposed in those areas as a result.

However, that has actually ended up being the only blot on the landscape this week in what is otherwise, a much better week overall due to some further recent rainfall.

As a result, those parts of the Borders which were at significant water scarcity status last week have now had their status downgraded to moderate water scarcity status with all water extraction restrictions also being lifted in those areas. Furthermore and unlike in other recent weeks, there are no fresh warnings this week about any other areas possibly having their status upgraded all the way up to significant water status in the next week.

In addition to that, Edinburgh has now finally had its status downgraded from moderate water scarcity status to alert status along with the Loch Earn catchment area and a small part of SW Scotland. These areas have now joined Morayshire, the north of Aberdeenshire and the city of Aberdeen itself at alert status.

Finally, two more areas in the west of Scotland have now completely returned to normal status although the Shetland Islands continue to remain at early warning status along with the far SW of Scotland, parts of Galloway and a large part of central Scotland.

Meanwhile, East Lothian along with the Borders, the rest of Fife, Tayside and most of the south of Aberdeenshire continue to remain at moderate water scarcity status whilst all areas which haven't been mentioned so far are at normal status.

Whilst these developments are very welcome, much more in the way of persistent rain will be needed in order for the recovery to continue. River levels are still very low in the east of Scotland, especially in those areas which are currently at significant water scarcity status.

Groundwater levels also remain very low in the east of Scotland, but normal or above normal elsewhere.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cqvgy1lejp7ro 

In comparison with last week's report, very little has actually changed this week. There has been some recent rainfall which has allowed three areas in SW Scotland to have their status downgraded from alert status to early warning status with one area in central Scotland returning to normal status.

However, rainfall amounts are still continuing to be very limited, especially in the east of Scotland which is still very much needing some additional rainfall in order to allow any sustained recovery to occur.

As a result, NE Fife along with parts of Tayside and the town of Stonehaven in Aberdeenshire remain at significant water scarcity status with water extraction restrictions still in force in those areas as a result. In addition to that, SEPA have also warned that unless there is some sustained rainfall within the next week, four more areas including East Lothian along with parts of Tayside and even extending into Aberdeenshire, are likely to also have their status upgraded to significant water scarcity status within the next week with water extraction restrictions also being introduced in those areas as well.

At the moment, large parts of eastern and SE Scotland remain at moderate water scarcity status including East Lothian, the Borders, most of Fife away from its NE corner, and also parts of Tayside and Aberdeenshire. 

For now, Edinburgh is still clinging onto its alert status along with the north of Aberdeenshire and one area in central Scotland.

Meanwhile, the Shetland Islands remain at early warning status along with northern parts of central Scotland and parts of central Scotland.

Finally, all areas which haven't been mentioned so far on this post are at normal status.

River levels are still continuing to be low to very low across quite a large part of eastern Scotland and that also applies to groundwater levels as well.

For those areas which are threatened with an upgrade to significant water scarcity status within the next week, the omens do not look good because although the next few days might still look relatively unsettled according to the latest model output, there is some model output pointing towards another build of high pressure next week which would only serve to make it much drier yet again at a time when those areas which I've just mentioned, desperately need some more rain to help with the overall recovery.

I know that a lot of you are probably now clamoring for an end to this particular thread which has been ongoing for quite a long time now. Given everything which I have brought up in this particular post though, I fear that this thread is still going to have quite a lot of life left in it yet.

Lake Mead plunges to historic low as water levels continue to fall

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/lake-mead-water-levels-dropping-kalshi 

I used to read and watch on Youtube before that show a old road and bridge appearing.  That what we called it proper drought but here is over now is been extremely wet and well above average rainfall here.   Ground had not dried up fully siince August so hope this coming week to dry out completely before it become wet permanently until March.

Go south, young man (to copy Mark Twain). Ground still really dry here despite a couple of wet days.

Quite. Its deceiving here because we've had just enough moisture for surface level seed germination which has resulted in a lush green carpet across the lawns, flower beds and fields, but its superficial. 

I guess if you're not particularly observant, or lack any critical thought abilities, you'll deduce that the drought down here is over...

In last week's report, four areas were threatened with a possible upgrade to significant water scarcity status unless there was significant rainfall during the week which has just passed. Those areas included East Lothian but I can happily report that thanks to some useful rainfall in the last week, East Lothian has been spared from that and won't have its status upgraded after all.

Nevertheless, there are still three other areas in Tayside and the NE Borders which were on that list, and which have now had their status upgraded to significant water scarcity status. In those areas, water extraction restrictions have also been introduced and those areas also join NE Fife and parts of Tayside and the south of Aberdeenshire which are still at significant water scarcity status with water extraction restrictions already in place as a result.

In general though, there has been some welcome rainfall which has brought some further recovery in many areas. In order to get that recovery, what we really need is sustained and persistent rainfall over a period of time rather than quite a lot of rain in a short period of time such as what we got with yesterday morning's thunderstorms in this part of the world.

Nevertheless, what rainfall we have had has helped the city of Aberdeen to have its status downgraded from moderate water scarcity status to alert status. This means that most of NE Scotland along with Edinburgh is now at alert status although most of the rest of SE Scotland including East Lothian, the rest of the Borders and parts of Tayside still remain at moderate water scarcity status.

The Loch Earn catchment area has had its status downgraded from alert status to early warning status whilst the Shetland Islands in addition to parts of SW Scotland have had their status downgraded back to normal from early warning status.

There is a large part of central Scotland to the north of the Central Belt which is still at early warning status but away from eastern, central and SW Scotland, the rest of Scotland is now completely back to normal in terms of its water scarcity status.

River and groundwater levels are normal to fairly high across a large part of Scotland, especially towards the west but remain low to very low across a large part of eastern Scotland where a lot more rain is still going to be needed in order for any recovery to take hold here.

No measurable rain to speak of (2 x 2mm) for two weeks now. Total for last 6 months (24th March - 24th Sept)  132mm with over half of that at the start of June. 39mm total for last 3 months.

Yes, another very dry period for the region(s) according to the EA's latest weekly report https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6ab5001efceb6fb3a6501141/Rainfall_and_river_flow_summary_16_to_22_September_2026.pdf 

As with all data, the devil is in the detail and open for misinterpretation - For example E & SE England showing 92/98% long term average rainfall over the past 12 months.

That's what I was thinking. When we began the long dry spell, it was sometimes windy, with desiccating winds that I assume sped up the removal of water from the soil through transpiration. Which makes the long-term average misleading, if that makes sense.

We need significant rain (200 mm+)  before we begin to reach field capacity, at least here in the South. 

For here no drought as it been over long time ago now and moved on so taking any dry breaks are much welcome which now almost a week without rain here but still wet the grass and soil due to morning heavy dews and slower rate of drying up.  The drying up stage in summer take a 1 a day or 2 while in Spring and Autumn take 5-7 days depending on the weather if very windy might be a bit lower.  Winter never but does dried up during the freeze which you can see from dark brown wet soil to dry alike brown dry soil, once thaw back to dark again. 

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Rather than looking at our expectations in terms of rainfall amounts, we should be looking at how much rain we’re actually getting compared to the long term averages because it is those averages which determine how much rain we should expect to be getting.

Here in Scotland, it is true that the west is wetter than the east on average for the reasons which you have mentioned and I’m sure every sensible person on here including myself will fully accept that but that isn’t the actual issue here.

Even with those much lower averages here in the east of Scotland, our actual totals have still consistently fallen short of those averages with this month going down as only our first wetter than average month of this year.

That is where the issues regarding water scarcity has come from and so, the solution to that problem is not for us to suddenly be getting as much rain as the west of Scotland, but is simply for us to be getting totals for a while which are consistently above our own averages as that is our only way of recovering from that situation in the end.

Never understood why people not in a drought area keep whining about people who are in one, demonstrating with data, that they are!