The Weather Outlook

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lanky
01 September 2026 20:48:06
Here is a London version of Kevin's Manchester Summer Index using the same formula that Kevin designed

2026 comes out 1st in my list going back over 100 years just pipping 1976 at the post. Although there were a lot more rain days in 2026 compared to 1976 and the sun hours was almost exactly the same, the huge difference in maximum temperature swung it in favour of 2026

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Martin

Richmond, Surrey

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
01 September 2026 21:21:14

Here is a London version of Kevin's Manchester Summer Index using the same formula that Kevin designed

2026 comes out 1st in my list going back over 100 years just pipping 1976 at the post. Although there were a lot more rain days in 2026 compared to 1976 and the sun hours was almost exactly the same, the huge difference in maximum temperature swung it in favour of 2026

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Originally Posted by: lanky 

I'd expected to see 1989 and 1990 figuring in that list - they were certainly dry and hot in mid-Kent with grass shrivelled up.

Or perhaps 55 BC, when Julius Caesar recorded that his invading troops had been unsuccessful in foraging for food (sc. terrorising the locals) 'propter siccitates', 'on account of the dryness'.


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

lanky
02 September 2026 07:03:50

I'd expected to see 1989 and 1990 figuring in that list - they were certainly dry and hot in mid-Kent with grass shrivelled up.

Or perhaps 55 BC, when Julius Caesar recorded that his invading troops had been unsuccessful in foraging for food (sc. terrorising the locals) 'propter siccitates', 'on account of the dryness'.

Originally Posted by: DEW 

I have Summer Index  values of 328 and 303 for 1989 and 1990 resp. making them 6th and 18th in the SI table from 1900 to 2026


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Rob K
02 September 2026 10:09:39

My garden, on the other hand? Here's how it looks as of the 1st September, after the hottest summer on record here and after a completely dry July and first week of August. The visitors I've had over the past week have all remarked on how green it looks, or at least the bits that my pup didn't churn up in winter!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I think I only cut my grass about twice all year. I have to say that in this area, with out sandy soil, it made no difference whether you cut the grass or not, it had basically turned to dust by the end of June. After the rain of this week there are a few green tufts starting to emerge but basically it still looks like straw.

Walking down the alley to the churchyard, most of the trees are completely brown. The oaks are hanging on but the birches are totally bare now, and the horse chestnuts mostly brown too, even big 50ft+ trees that must be decades old. It will be interesting to see to what extent they come back in the spring or whether we've lost a lot of them.

BTW yesterday was day 86 to reach 25C this year. Could we make 100? Probably not quite, but 90+ seems very achievable.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Saint Snow
02 September 2026 12:06:28

It's certainly a summer that's up there with the true classics (1976, 1995 and 2018). It probably hasn't set in how remarkable it's been so far, but it probably will do in a few years time. 35°C+ in all three summer months, plus May is truly astounding, and we might even add September to that yet...

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

I described it in the summer CET thread as a summer of a succession of multiple heatwaves.

The main difference between the south and north has been that the weather in gaps between heatwaves has been a little more pronounced and less warm the further north you went.

In parts of the S & SE, the gaps between were less noticeable as temps only fell back to 'warm' or 'fairly hot', and any rain was negligible.

It's been a very good summer here, with periods of 1-3 weeks of hot, dry and sunny, but interspersed with anything from a few days to over a week of temps back closer to the norm, increased cloud and sometimes a little rain. 1995 was better as it was more one bloc of warm/hot and sunny and dry lasting a couple of months.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Jiries
04 September 2026 05:58:11
I notice why the hate hater club still active and despite I don’t see any heatwave this month?  I read few and they need to seek medical help as they complain about current 20C plus temperatures? They are not hot and is room temperatures level  that we live in?  I understand if don’t like 30C plus temps but in low 20s?  With the gas bills going up next month we need to have 20C plus to keep going as much as we can into October.  
doctormog
04 September 2026 06:07:07
Well the summer here was drier, a bit summer and cloudier than average so not overly memorable. Never mind gaps between heatwaves we didn’t actually reach the heatwave threshold for here at all at any point.

It wasn’t a bad summer at all and quite pleasant at times but a bit more sunshine would have been nice, and as ever, autumn seemed to start at some point in August.


KDB1
04 September 2026 07:55:18

I described it in the summer CET thread as a summer of a succession of multiple heatwaves.

The main difference between the south and north has been that the weather in gaps between heatwaves has been a little more pronounced and less warm the further north you went.

In parts of the S & SE, the gaps between were less noticeable as temps only fell back to 'warm' or 'fairly hot', and any rain was negligible.

It's been a very good summer here, with periods of 1-3 weeks of hot, dry and sunny, but interspersed with anything from a few days to over a week of temps back closer to the norm, increased cloud and sometimes a little rain. 1995 was better as it was more one bloc of warm/hot and sunny and dry lasting a couple of months.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I think 2018 was superior to me, not because the index suggests so, but it felt sunnier despite August being the weakest of the three summer months. From about the solstice to the 2nd week of July, it was basically wall to wall sunshine with occasional fair weather cloud. It was outstanding.  May-July 2018 was truly exceptional, it had a "summer" index of 296, up there with summer 1976 and 1995.

Summer 1995 was still the outstanding for me around this area and the outstanding year for weather of my lifetime.  2018 has been the closest since, shame August-December let it down. 

Saint Snow
04 September 2026 10:31:14
The Met Office maps now fully available for both August and the summer.

Here's the mean temperature map:

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You can see that the Merseyside-Manchester conurbation & Cheshire, along with much of S/W/E Yorks are in the same 'band' of temp as the bulk of the southern half of England/ Astomishing that London/some of the Home Counties/Thames Estuary/part of the South Coast had a mean summer temp in excess of 20c.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Bertwhistle
04 September 2026 16:53:45
I don't rate the UK temperature record anywhere near as important as the CET ( not because I'm in England- after all I am south coast- certainly not central England). The CET is a long, long standing record and in my opinion should never be shelved for a UK temperature which has always been meaningless to me and even more so now that it's increasingly a divided climate over the UK. We've never grouped W Europe as a key statistical indicator- Portugal, France, Ireland, England, Scotland? No evidential link that I can see apart from general warming over time. Similarly, England's climate is closer to that of central western France 30 or so years ago, but the lag in warming in  Scotland is noted.

2025 just pipped 1976 and it was a nail-biting close thing. But 2026 has sky-balled the hottest summer record so significantly in the CET that I think it will be a long time in the beating. Add in the warmest spring build up and it's no surprise that some posters are harping on about the hottest year going.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Ally Pally Snowman
06 September 2026 17:53:14
28.6c the high today in Northolt,  probably the last 28c of the year. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
06 September 2026 22:38:54

28.6c the high today in Northolt,  probably the last 28c of the year. 

Ally Pally Snowman wrote:

Was 26C today and last 40.2 in the conservatory which I bid farewell to it.  Been a great summer just only disappointed it been rudely cut off short from mid August until now we never had proper settled much needed dry weather yet.  When a good summer should end gradually not like this cut off.  1995 was the best for dryness then 2018 while this year failed as both June and August turned out very wet months only July being rainless.  

Ally Pally Snowman
07 September 2026 05:42:00

Was 26C today and last 40.2 in the conservatory which I bid farewell to it.  Been a great summer just only disappointed it been rudely cut off short from mid August until now we never had proper settled much needed dry weather yet.  When a good summer should end gradually not like this cut off.  1995 was the best for dryness then 2018 while this year failed as both June and August turned out very wet months only July being rainless.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

The outlook is pretty good still, think 25c is on the cards over the next couple of weeks.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
07 September 2026 08:51:02

The outlook is pretty good still, think 25c is on the cards over the next couple of weeks.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yes, today should reach 25C (day 89 at least) and GFS reckons another 3 or 4 to come in the next fortnight with a plume around the 18th-20th.

As for the hottest CET year record, I can't see it not being broken this year. We would need to have an almost four month period with an average temperature 0.1C below the long-term mean in order to fail to break it. Hardly likely in this day and age.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Jiries
07 September 2026 09:45:31

The outlook is pretty good still, think 25c is on the cards over the next couple of weeks.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

00z ensembles looking good and warmer days to average after this week below average but looking welcome dry weather, badly needed in this area.  Hope the rain tomorrow will miss it here as it moving along the south to make those who need the rain.

Saint Snow
07 September 2026 11:00:10

looking welcome dry weather, badly needed in this area.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

🤔

You sure on that?


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Jiries
07 September 2026 11:40:18

🤔

You sure on that?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

After many days of stinky rain showers so need a good dry break now 3rd day being dry so much needed, it still very wet soil here.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 September 2026 10:18:17
Nicholas Watts of Vine House Farm in his monthly newsletter comments that 

- the harvest was completed earlier than ever before

- instead of using forced air circulation to dry the grain in store, this year , he's had to use it to cool the grain to minimise insect spoilage

- yields are down but the price compensates as other parts of the world have had poor harvests, and the Ukraine-Russia conflict has cut the amount harvested there.


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

Ally Pally Snowman
08 September 2026 12:47:15
Definitely a chance the UK doesn't hit 20c today. Been awhile, must be over 4 months?
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
08 September 2026 13:16:28

Definitely a chance the UK doesn't hit 20c today. Been awhile, must be over 4 months?

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I thoiught I'd try and check.

It may be that I'm not wording the search right, but I can't find a site that lists the min & max temps across the UK for every single day. I know numerous plaes publish the max/mins of the previous day, so surely there's a simple datasheet log kept of these. 

Anyone know where to find such a list?


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Retron
08 September 2026 13:29:00

Anyone know where to find such a list?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

19.9 on the 11th June was the last time, I think:

https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/IO_c1fe4096-6980-4923-b77f-8b8a26fa3516/  (p84)

You can see the other months here:

https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/SO_e9c5c20f-4856-439d-b642-84324766b7a3/ 


Leysdown, north Kent
Saint Snow
08 September 2026 13:46:35

19.9 on the 11th June was the last time, I think:

https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/IO_c1fe4096-6980-4923-b77f-8b8a26fa3516/  (p84)

You can see the other months here:

https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/SO_e9c5c20f-4856-439d-b642-84324766b7a3/ 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Thanks, Darren. Why do the Met Office 'hide' stuff like this away in little pockets of their site. I find it so tricky to navigate the Met Office website for the info I want to find.


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Saint Snow
08 September 2026 13:54:10

 Thanks, Darren. Why do the Met Office 'hide' stuff like this away in little pockets of their site. I find it so tricky to navigate the Met Office website for the info I want to find.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Darren - did you go through each individual day to find that??

Unless I'm being dim, there doesn't seem to be a table showing each day's max & min (ideally a highest & lowest max and highest & lowest min, with locations. They could do that in a very simple spreadsheet table)


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Retron
09 September 2026 03:37:01

Darren - did you go through each individual day to find that??

Unless I'm being dim, there doesn't seem to be a table showing each day's max & min (ideally a highest & lowest max and highest & lowest min, with locations. They could do that in a very simple spreadsheet table)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

I cheated a bit - I found another link (which I didn't save) which had temperature anomaly maps for each day, and the last one with widespread blues was the 11th. Similarly, my own records here had the 11th as being the last day below 20C, so it was a quick check of the 11th, 12th and 13th... 

FWIW yesterday's high was 20.4 Pershore, so the run of 20s nationally continues.


Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
09 September 2026 04:56:35

I cheated a bit - I found another link (which I didn't save) which had temperature anomaly maps for each day, and the last one with widespread blues was the 11th. Similarly, my own records here had the 11th as being the last day below 20C, so it was a quick check of the 11th, 12th and 13th... 

FWIW yesterday's high was 20.4 Pershore, so the run of 20s nationally continues.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yes we crept over it in the end. Looks like the next couple of weeks should get to 20c fairly comfortably. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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