The Weather Outlook

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Lionel Hutz
27 August 2026 14:54:35

This week's water scarcity report has just been released by SEPA and can be viewed here .

Generally, this has been a much drier week here than it was originally forecast to be but in spite of that, this week's report isn't actually as bad as expected under these circumstances due to the fact that this month's rainfall hasn't actually been all that far below average here.

The town of Hawick in the Scottish Borders, along with the city of Aberdeen and parts of Aberdeenshire have had their status downgraded from significant water scarcity status to moderate water scarcity status and as a result, the water extraction restrictions which were in place in those areas have also now been lifted. The means that the whole of eastern Scotland away from the far north of Scotland (that includes Edinburgh and now includes the whole of the Borders) is now at moderate water scarcity status.

However, there are still two areas in SW Scotland which are at significant water scarcity status with water extraction restrictions still in place in those areas and SEPA have warned that there are a couple of areas within the Borders which could have their status upgraded to significant water scarcity status within the next week if there isn't any sustained rainfall in that time.

Meanwhile, there are still two areas within the Inverness area and the Dumfries and Galloway region which are at alert status for water scarcity.

However, Speyside has had its status downgraded from alert status to early warning status. This means that central Scotland along with most of SW Scotland away from those above mentioned areas which are at significant water scarcity status, are at early warning status.

Finally, the rest of Scotland which has not been mentioned so far are at normal status.

Whilst these downgrades are welcome, more sustained rainfall is needed if there is to be any continued recovery in the overall situation.

River levels continue to be low to very low in eastern Scotland but much higher further west whereas groundwater levels are particularly very low in central Fife, and generally low to very low across eastern Scotland in particular.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

Interesting map when I clicked on the link, John. For the most part, it's what you'd expect with a marked worsening of drought conditions as you move West to East. However, what's going on in Galloway? The rest of South West Scotland seems to be relatively ok in a green, early warning situation. Yet in the middle of that, we have parts of Galloway which is the only part of the country coloured red. Why is that area the worst affected by drought in all of Scotland, yet the areas surrounding it aren't too badly affected? 


Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



fairweather
27 August 2026 20:16:26

Indeed ..very disappointing …about 10 minutes  of rain at about 5 am and 5 mins of drizzle around 9.30am…and that was it….drought in these parts continues unabated….

Originally Posted by: Chichesterweatherfan2 

You will overtake me at this rate. I'm up to 8.5mm for the month although that would include all of July as well!


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Retron
28 August 2026 03:26:22
No surprise to see yesterday evening's rain fizzled to nothing... despite being under two overlapping thunderstorm warnings there were about 6 drops of rain last night, no heavy showers anywhere near either. 

It really does feel like the sort of thing you get in winter with snow!


Leysdown, north Kent
KDB1
28 August 2026 04:28:59
Drought well and truely distant memory, here.  90mm so far this August

Shows how remarkable summer 1995 was, this summer is not even going to be that close to it, rainfall total wise, and we still got the rest of August yet.

EWP driest summers (mm)

1995: 66.9

1976: 74.0

1800: 91.5

1869: 98.9

2026: ~ 101.4 (25th Aug)

1818: 102.6

1983: 110.8

2022: 111.0

Lionel Hutz
28 August 2026 08:44:08

Drought well and truely distant memory, here.  90mm so far this August

Shows how remarkable summer 1995 was, this summer is not even going to be that close to it, rainfall total wise, and we still got the rest of August yet.

EWP driest summers (mm)

1995: 66.9

1976: 74.0

1800: 91.5

1869: 98.9

2026: ~ 101.4 (25th Aug)

1818: 102.6

1983: 110.8

2022: 111.0

Originally Posted by: KDB1 

Where is "here"?

Drought now ended for me too, 35mm since the beginning of the week and more to come this weekend.

One interesting thing is that drought conditions can be self fulfilling. Bone dry ground weakens convection since there is little or no moisture to be taken from the ground or vegetation. I wonder whether this was a factor in the relative failure of the rain to arrive in Southern England this week? Hopefully, those parts might see decent rainfall this weekend.


Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



KDB1
28 August 2026 10:08:19

Where is "here"?

Drought now ended for me too, 35mm since the beginning of the week and more to come this weekend.

One interesting this is that drought conditions can be self fulfilling. Bone dry ground weakens convection since there is little or no moisture to be taken from the ground or vegetation. I wonder whether this was a factor in the relative failure of the rain to arrive in Southern England this week? Hopefully, those parts might see decent rainfall this weekend.

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 

Here is Irlam, between Manchester and Warrington.

lanky
28 August 2026 10:13:42

Here is Irlam, between Manchester and Warrington.

Originally Posted by: KDB1 

I'm having deja vu 


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Saint Snow
28 August 2026 11:31:24

Here is Irlam, between Manchester and Warrington.

Originally Posted by: KDB1 

Hi, Kev 👍👍👍

glad to see you back posting.

What's the Manchester Summer Index table looking like (if you still compile it)


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

fairweather
28 August 2026 11:35:44

Where is "here"?

Drought now ended for me too, 35mm since the beginning of the week and more to come this weekend.

One interesting this is that drought conditions can be self fulfilling. Bone dry ground weakens convection since there is little or no moisture to be taken from the ground or vegetation. I wonder whether this was a factor in the relative failure of the rain to arrive in Southern England this week? Hopefully, those parts might see decent rainfall this weekend.

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 

Thanks, yes we hope so. I'm up to 8.9mm now but bear in mind that is for all of July and August combined. To me, it looks like the heavy rain will be fragmented into lighter stuff after it moves East of London but between now and SUnday might catch some heavy thundery showers especially as I am playing golf this afternoon! 


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
28 August 2026 11:40:36

No surprise to see yesterday evening's rain fizzled to nothing... despite being under two overlapping thunderstorm warnings there were about 6 drops of rain last night, no heavy showers anywhere near either. 

It really does feel like the sort of thing you get in winter with snow!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yes, I posted same about snow yesterday. I did get some yesterday morning bringing me up to 8.9mm total for July and August. I wouldn't hold your breath for Saturday either. The Met Office forecasts always stop at London and don't mention anywhere East where we know the weather, if not climate, is completely different. The graphic looked like quite a bit of fragmentation for us.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
KDB1
28 August 2026 11:46:43

Hi, Kev 👍👍👍

glad to see you back posting.

What's the Manchester Summer Index table looking like (if you still compile it)

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Thanks Saint

Manchester Summer Indices ranked with the top the best

1976 301

1995 298

1983 278

1955 277

2026 276 ( up to 26th Aug)

2018 272

1984 271

1959 269

1975 268

1949 267

1989 262

2022 261

28 August 2026 11:50:38

Yes, I posted same about snow yesterday. I did get some yesterday morning bringing me up to 8.9mm total for July and August. I wouldn't hold your breath for Saturday either. The Met Office forecasts always stop at London and don't mention anywhere East where we know the weather, if not climate, is completely different. The graphic looked like quite a bit of fragmentation for us.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Wrong on all accounts. How is the UK drought telethon coming on, postponed?  

28 August 2026 11:52:50

Thanks Saint

Manchester Summer Indices ranked with the top the best

1976 301

1995 298

1983 278

1955 277

2026 276 ( up to 26th Aug)

2018 272

1984 271

1959 269

1975 268

1949 267

1989 262

2022 261

Originally Posted by: KDB1 

Interesting to see 1995 was a better summer for Manchester too, clearly a better summer than this year here In Cumberland.

bledur
28 August 2026 13:12:04
Still very little rain here and I many parts of the south,Dorset,Somerset East Devon,South Wiltshire, Hampshire,just a few scattered showers, hopefully some steady prolonged rain tomorrow.Today is blowing a half gale with showers being driven inland into lines
johncs2016
28 August 2026 13:26:03

Interesting map when I clicked on the link, John. For the most part, it's what you'd expect with a marked worsening of drought conditions as you move West to East. However, what's going on in Galloway? The rest of South West Scotland seems to be relatively ok in a green, early warning situation. Yet in the middle of that, we have parts of Galloway which is the only part of the country coloured red. Why is that area the worst affected by drought in all of Scotland, yet the areas surrounding it aren't too badly affected? 

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 

Since I don't know the answer to that myself, I have asked around other forums to see if anyone else has that answer. On one such forum, I got a reply from someone who lives in that area and who is probably far more knowledgable on that subject than me but even they weren't able to come up with a very definitive answer to that and merely agreed with me that the significant water scarcity status in those areas aren't consistent in any way with the actual rainfall patterns in those areas or the status in the surrounding areas.

The best answer which I was able to get was just a theory that either that significant water scarcity status is merely an error, or that is due to a possible issue with the source of a couple of rivers which flow into there from the Southern Uplands. If the source of those rivers are in an area which has a worse drought status, that could well have resulted in very low river flows further downstream, which might just be enough to explain why those particular areas are at significant water scarcity status despite there being a reasonable amount of rain in those areas.

Even if that is the case though, these rivers would still have to flow through those early warning status areas coloured green to get to those red coloured areas, so I am still completely stumped with that one so if anyone on here knows the answer to that and provide that here, that would be greatly appreciated.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 August 2026 14:09:04

Thanks, yes we hope so. I'm up to 8.9mm now but bear in mind that is for all of July and August combined. To me, it looks like the heavy rain will be fragmented into lighter stuff after it moves East of London but between now and SUnday might catch some heavy thundery showers especially as I am playing golf this afternoon! 

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

 Chilgrove in the Downs near here recorded the grand total of 7.4mm from 12th June (when the wet period of the beginning of June ended) to 26th Aug, and all this with daytime maxima frequently above 30C. Now that's a drought!

There was 10.4mm at Chilgrove on the 27th but not as much as that here on the coastal plain,  Unsympathetic remarks from parts of the country which have had ample rainfall are not appreciated.

FWIW, 2025 was difficult enough: 81.1mm over the same period,  but half of that in one day. 'Normal' rainfall - there may be a 'new normal' - for this period would be 80mm, well distributed. Chilgrove records are available in detail because the Portsmouth Water Co use it as a pumping station. In fact, because the winter was so wet with the Chilgrove well overflowing at the surface, the level in the chalk aquifer is now not much below normal and we have no hosepipe ban. Last year, after a dry winter in 2024-25, the level in September 2025 was close to the lowest ever.


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

Charmhills
28 August 2026 14:21:20
Everything is turning back to a nice shade of green now after all this rain.

So much better too.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power.

Duane.

Lionel Hutz
28 August 2026 15:19:49

Since I don't know the answer to that myself, I have asked around other forums to see if anyone else has that answer. On one such forum, I got a reply from someone who lives in that area and who is probably far more knowledgable on that subject than me but even they weren't able to come up with a very definitive answer to that and merely agreed with me that the significant water scarcity status in those areas aren't consistent in any way with the actual rainfall patterns in those areas or the status in the surrounding areas.

The best answer which I was able to get was just a theory that either that significant water scarcity status is merely an error, or that is due to a possible issue with the source of a couple of rivers which flow into there from the Southern Uplands. If the source of those rivers are in an area which has a worse drought status, that could well have resulted in very low river flows further downstream, which might just be enough to explain why those particular areas are at significant water scarcity status despite there being a reasonable amount of rain in those areas.

Even if that is the case though, these rivers would still have to flow through those early warning status areas coloured green to get to those red coloured areas, so I am still completely stumped with that one so if anyone on here knows the answer to that and provide that here, that would be greatly appreciated.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

Thanks, John. Either way, let's hope that whatever the issue becomes academic soon - looks like we might might all see rain in the coming days. The drought is definitely broken down here with alot of rain to come tonight/tomorrow and Sunday.


Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
28 August 2026 15:38:07
I assume I will be joining the rain party tomorrow. Of course, be careful what you wish for.
Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
28 August 2026 19:44:34
Local weather stations reported there was 17.20 mm yesterday and just 0.79mm today.

I dug a small hole in the garden this afternoon and the slight dampness in the soil extends to about 5cm below the surface. Below that it's still bone dry.

The drought continues here.


Rob

In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.

fairweather
28 August 2026 20:53:48
Nothing here today.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Jiries
29 August 2026 08:45:03

Local weather stations reported there was 17.20 mm yesterday and just 0.79mm today.

I dug a small hole in the garden this afternoon and the slight dampness in the soil extends to about 5cm below the surface. Below that it's still bone dry.

The drought continues here.

Originally Posted by: RobN 

it will end on your area today with band of rain all places.   'With the heavy shower recently i saw finally some standing water on edges of the soil so a brief a run off then it sank inside.  September looking much welcome needed drier and warmer weather after this wet cursed bank holiday weekend.  Need to rein in the rain days to be limited and not go for months which is the danger nowadays, the amount of wetness always last longer than dryness, wetness last 6-8months compare to dryness never exceeded 2 months most last few weeks to a  month but never reach half year without rain or wetness. 

Matty H
29 August 2026 08:51:52
There will be plenty of rain for everyone over the next few months. Drought in this country really means some hosepipe bans. The real sufferers are farmers and the knock-on to prices for consumers. Other than that…
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
29 August 2026 09:22:51
Other than that, the fires, dried-up watercourses and other negative environmental effects are some of the chronic results of long dry summers like this one. Not just hosepipe bans.

I found this article, which might be an interesting Saturday read for some of us.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyrv84yd9ko 

I’m planning a garden improvement which includes a new shed and better use of land currently taken by a declining wooden shed. The new shed will be smaller but well built and I will catch the rain water off the roof running it though a basic filter before it enters the storage. 

https://www.celticwater.co.uk/downpipe-filter-and-diverter-push-fit/ 

https://www.ecosure.co.uk/collections/slimline-water-butts 

My new storage will be two 400 litre slimline tanks which the largest I can fit out of sight behind the shed, all daisy-chained into an attractive 300 litre tank, which will have a lid I can use to dip a watering can into. It will also have a tap near the base. For a summer like the one just leaving, the Water savings would be useful and rainwater is great for watering plants. Often better than tap water which around here is heavy with calcium carbonate which can dry in white sheets on foliage unless you use a drip irrigation system. But this summer would have seen me use all the water after a month if there was no top-up precipitation. And I didn't use a hose.

Even better, I would install a much larger underground system if I had a larger roof to collect the water from. You can’t fit guttering on thatch, of course. I think this gutter water collection should be mandatory on all new builds. But it’s rare to see these systems, though there are plenty of suppliers providing modern tanks and pumps. You can then use a large one for washing, flushing toilets and so on. A potable system is possible but you need potable water plastics. Using grey water is another way but again developers are often oblivious to these kinds of water-saving methods. Costs of course but…


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Matty H
29 August 2026 09:38:07

Other than that, the fires, dried-up watercourses and other negative environmental effects are some of the chronic results of long dry summers like this one. Not just hosepipe bans.

I found this article, which might be an interesting Saturday read for some of us.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyrv84yd9ko 

I’m planning a garden improvement which includes a new shed and better use of land currently taken by a declining wooden shed. The new shed will be smaller but well built and I will catch the rain water off the roof running it though a basic filter before it enters the storage. 

https://www.celticwater.co.uk/downpipe-filter-and-diverter-push-fit/ 

https://www.ecosure.co.uk/collections/slimline-water-butts 

My new storage will be two 400 litre slimline tanks which the largest I can fit out of sight behind the shed, all daisy-chained into an attractive 300 litre tank, which will have a lid I can use to dip a watering can into. It will also have a tap near the base. For a summer like the one just leaving, the Water savings would be useful and rainwater is great for watering plants. Often better than tap water which around here is heavy with calcium carbonate which can dry in white sheets on foliage unless you use a drip irrigation system. But this summer would have seen me use all the water after a month if there was no top-up precipitation. And I didn't use a hose.

Even better, I would install a much larger underground system if I had a larger roof to collect the water from. You can’t fit guttering on thatch, of course. I think this gutter water collection should be mandatory on all new builds. But it’s rare to see these systems, though there are plenty of suppliers providing modern tanks and pumps. You can then use a large one for washing, flushing toilets and so on. A potable system is possible but you need potable water plastics. Using grey water is another way but again developers are often oblivious to these kinds of water-saving methods. Costs of course but…

Originally Posted by: NMA 

Happens most years regardless of official or not drought status

And then we could talk about the negative impacts of a wet winter, but that’s not fashionable 

Plenty of positives too - ie MILD!!!


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

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