Hadley

19.5 to the 18th

3.7c above the 61 to 90 average

2.5c above the 91 to 20 average

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

12 days to go to the end of the month. I can't see a heatwave no7 on the cards now. 🙂🙂🙂

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

There’s potential for an unsettled muggy “heatwave” around the 25th-29th. Unexciting daily maxes but pretty warm minima so a CET boost if so. 

Showing up more on AIFS and ECM than GFS.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

So 13.8°C average for the rest of August (including today) will give us that first ever 18°C summer, beating 2026 and 1976 by 0.3 degrees.

Worth remembering that as recently as 1986, the whole of August, let alone the second half, failed to reach this- so it could yet miss. But a record summer would be harder to miss- need a 1912 style rest of August! (Don't look at August 1912- it makes for depressing reading).

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

There’s potential for an unsettled muggy “heatwave” around the 25th-29th. Unexciting daily maxes but pretty warm minima so a CET boost if so. 

Showing up more on AIFS and ECM than GFS.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Incredible that August was. 😵😵😵. I did quite a bit of research on it. I thought I put something on it in the classics thread. If I didn't then at some point I will.

In all months of all the UK national records August 1912 is the only month EVER to achieve,  the coldest, the dullest and wettest records. That takes some doing and that month still holds all those terrible attributes. 

The worst part of the month was a catastrophic rainstorm over Norwich and the county of Norfolk.  Norwich recorded just over 8 inches of rain in well under 24 hours. A small village just outside Norwich had 9 inches. As you can imagine the flooding in Norwich was very serious. It led to the collapse of several buildings causing fatalities.  

One commentator calculated that the amount of rain dropped over Norfolk was the equivalent of the total contents of Lake Windermere being emptied over the whole county.  🙁🙁🙁🙁

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Incredible that August was. 😵😵😵. I did quite a bit of research on it. I thought I put something on it in the classics thread. If I didn't then at some point I will.

In all months of all the UK national records August 1912 is the only month EVER to achieve,  the coldest, the dullest and wettest records. That takes some doing and that month still holds all those terrible attributes. 

The worst part of the month was a catastrophic rainstorm over Norwich and the county of Norfolk.  Norwich recorded just over 8 inches of rain in well under 24 hours. A small village just outside Norwich had 9 inches. As you can imagine the flooding in Norwich was very serious. It led to the collapse of several buildings causing fatalities.  

One commentator calculated that the amount of rain dropped over Norfolk was the equivalent of the total contents of Lake Windermere being emptied over the whole county.  🙁🙁🙁🙁

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

It shares the record low August CET (12.9c) with 1816

1816 also has the outright record for the coldest July CET  (and is in the top 20 coldest June CETs, 5th coldest May)

Isn't called 'the year without a summer' for nothing!!

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Hadley

19.3 to the 20th

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average

2.3c above the 91 to 20 average

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Falling rather slowly. 

So that’s 386 DDs so far. Target for an 18C August is 558 - 386 = 172, at a RRR of 15.64C.

Target for an 18C summer: 1,656 - 1,512 = 143.5, RRR 13.04C. 

And for completeness, for the summer record we need 118.66, RRR 10.79. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Falling rather slowly. 

So that’s 386 DDs so far. Target for an 18C August is 558 - 386 = 172, at a RRR of 15.64C.

Target for an 18C summer: 1,656 - 1,512 = 143.5, RRR 13.04C. 

And for completeness, for the summer record we need 118.66, RRR 10.79. 

For what it’s worth I calculate CET for the remaining days per the 12z GFS at 16.97, or 186.67 DDs. That would leave us with a monthly mean of 18.47C and a summer score also of 18.47C.

Originally Posted by: TimS