Rothamsted min 14.0 max 35.2

Pershore college min 16.7 max 37.8

Stonyhurst min 18.2 max 31.2

CET min 16.3 max 34.73

CET mean: 25.52C

Which means CET month to date will be between 19.36 and 19.45C.

19.4 to the 13th

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average

2.2c above the 91 to 20 average

That was the 2nd highest CET max on record, then, beating the 34.8 on the 18th July 2022, but below the 37.3 of the following day. It was easily the hottest CET max for August.

19.6 to the 14th

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average

2.4c above the 91 to 20 average

Didn’t quite make the 19.7 then. CET should stay relatively elevated until Tuesday, before possibly quite a rapid drop.

What do you reckon Tim? Are we on for a first ever 18°C CET summer?

I think the CET is getting bad coverage elsewhere and there are increasing attempts to make the UK average the focus. Don't mind that, but CET is so long-standing it would be a shame to see it fade into reporting obscurity.

I note the Wiki coverage of this summer does UK & also England as a whole, but no mention of CET.

Our climate in England seems so much more aligned to some continental regions now, it seems that to have a UK as a whole record as the main reference would be as pointless as a NW Europe (France to Norway) record.

I think, without doing the maths, we need mid-upper 17s in August for a 18C summer, which seems achievable so long as we don’t go really cool in the latter part of the month. 

I agree UK wide hides big regional differences, though CET is a bit unusual too being weighted towards the West. In zonal summers where the warmest places are London, Kent and East Anglia (quite common in Augusts in particular) the CET can look very cool. 

I wonder how much it'll come down after this. 🙂🙂🙂🙂

Rothamsted min 18.2 max 24.6

Pershore college min 15.4 max 24.7

Stonyhurst min 13.3 max 18.3

CET min 15.6 max 22.5

CET mean: 19.06

Which means CET month to date will be between 19.52 and 19.61.

Up to the 14th we have 1,401 degree days so far this summer. The record from 2025 and 1976 is 17.72C, which is 1,630 degree days. 

So to beat the all time record (ie get to 17.73C) the rest of the month needs to get 230.26 degree days, at 13.54C. Odds-on

To hit 18.0C for the summer it’s 255.1 at 15.0C. Very likely.

For 18.5C it’s 300.1 at 17.65C. Not impossible, but a stretch given the outlook

For 19.0C, 347.1 at 20.4C. Impossible. 

My guess would be we end up around 18.1-18.2C for the season. 

EDIT: now 19.6 up to the 15th so up to 1,420.5 degree days. 13.1C for the record. 

19.6 to the 15th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average

2.5c above the 91 to 20 average

The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 11.23, which is 1.76 higher than normal.

To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 0.25 for the remainder of this year.

19.5 to the 16th

3.7c above the 61 to 90 average

2.4c above the 91 to 20 average

Summer degree days now 1,438.

Run rate for record summer: 12.8C

For 18.0C summer: 14.54

For 18.5C summer: 17.54

Correct, 19.8°C yesterday.

I make it 16.2°C for an 18C summer.

31x18=558.

17 x19.5= 331.5 So (558-331.5)÷14 (14 days remaining after 17th) = 16.2 (rounded). It could be a tenth either way depending on our current 19.5 to the 1/100th.

That would be for an 18C August wouldn’t it, not an 18C summer?

EDIT: just ran the numbers on this evening's GFS op run. We'd just squeeze 18.0C for the summer by the skin of our teeth. August final score 17.55C.

Largely thanks to a lot of cool nights coming up, killing the CET.

Totally correct Tim. Should've learned to read!

19.5 to the 18th

3.7c above the 61 to 90 average

2.5c above the 91 to 20 average