The Weather Outlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
05 August 2026 11:22:47

That is almost ten degrees (9.5°C to be precise) warmer than the average daily max here for July. It just goes to show the geographical extent of the heatwave. You would expect the average max to be 23.9°C here if the heat anomaly had been to the same extent nationwide. (It was in reality 19.8°C).

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yes northern Europe has missed out really. Scandinavia and the Baltics have had similar issues. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
05 August 2026 12:25:42
Confidence on another significant blast of heat, at least in the south, next week now looks high.

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Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
05 August 2026 13:13:10

Confidence on another significant blast of heat, at least in the south, next week now looks high.

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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

What happens after that is a bit of a head scratcher. All the models, pretty much, are showing a cool down and troughs riding across the country in the third week of August. Yet the long term outlooks from the Met Office and ECM, as well as the global scale patterns (MJO phase, AAM etc) would seem to favour high pressure.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Bertwhistle
05 August 2026 13:27:01

What happens after that is a bit of a head scratcher. All the models, pretty much, are showing a cool down and troughs riding across the country in the third week of August. Yet the long term outlooks from the Met Office and ECM, as well as the global scale patterns (MJO phase, AAM etc) would seem to favour high pressure.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

HP to the west, still close by but latitudinally elongated, could still allow fronts/troughs and would permit a cooler set up to develop, especially if features repeatedly nudge the HP cell west, before it slips back again. I suppose that's the trouble with LT signals- they can be kind of right, but don't pretend to define the subtleties of meso scale geography.

Certainly interesting what lies ahead. For once something other than blue sky, blazing sun and parched earth appeals to me.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
05 August 2026 14:10:52
GEFS graphs suggest the possibilty of two upcoming, but short heatwaves, which could feasibly merge into a longer one.

These look to be from around August 8th to 10th; August 12th to 14th. 

Met office mentioned this morning we had matched 1995s number of 30°C + days. Looks like we will exceed that figure. 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Roger Parsons
05 August 2026 14:13:19
Have you enjoyed the Private Eye cover this week?

https://www.threads.com/@privateeyenews/post/DbpjsTnHHGk/media 


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Bertwhistle
05 August 2026 14:28:12

Have you enjoyed the Private Eye cover this week?

https://www.threads.com/@privateeyenews/post/DbpjsTnHHGk/media 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

I believe that's only the front cover Roger? Even so, the points they've made in their own magical way are right there. 

I'm both tired and alarmed by this weather. I can just about cope with carting the largest watering can we could buy up and down the garden every evening (although a recent bout of radial nerve palsy made this a challenge!) We 'grow our own' and as you can imagine peppers, chillis, oranges are thriving but others are struggling even with the watering.

But nobody is watering on the wild side. The press has been on the big fires (including Headon Warren on the IOW, one of my favourite spotting grounds) but the less obvious environmerntal impacts won't reveal themselves for some time. I hope the forecasted heatwaves are last breaths, even though I do enjoy weather records. A good late August soaking would certainly send the mycelia into overdrive!


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Roger Parsons
05 August 2026 14:48:46

I believe that's only the front cover Roger? Even so, the points they've made in their own magical way are right there. 

I'm both tired and alarmed by this weather. I can just about cope with carting the largest watering can we could buy up and down the garden every evening (although a recent bout of radial nerve palsy made this a challenge!) We 'grow our own' and as you can imagine peppers, chillis, oranges are thriving but others are struggling even with the watering.

But nobody is watering on the wild side. The press has been on the big fires (including Headon Warren on the IOW, one of my favourite spotting grounds) but the less obvious environmerntal impacts won't reveal themselves for some time. I hope the forecasted heatwaves are last breaths, even though I do enjoy weather records. A good late August soaking would certainly send the mycelia into overdrive!

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

We did have an early cap of Boletus luridus in the garden back in June, but only one before the drought put a stop to all that!

https://www.first-nature.com/fungi/suillellus-luridus.php 


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
05 August 2026 14:59:31

Have you enjoyed the Private Eye cover this week?

https://www.threads.com/@privateeyenews/post/DbpjsTnHHGk/media 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

And salted earth in parts of England too. It must have been panic time for the NT and RSPB to even consider using seawater.

Meanwhile, the hedgehog (this year's hoglet) in my garden is getting through its cat food and water I place in little glass bowls I wash out each day.  

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gjp2j4zz8o 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Rob K
05 August 2026 15:46:12
Today, one of the "cool interludes" has still reached 27C in Essex. I'd be interested to know when and where the Met Office's 34th 30C day was!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Matty H
05 August 2026 19:02:02

It's because they order it in many months in advance, so once it's gone it's gone. They'll use long-range forecasts, but none of those forecasts ever pick up record-breaking months like the one we've just had! 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Spot on. Same with the portable aircon units


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

The Beast from the East
06 August 2026 01:18:04

I like the crisp clear frosty mornings, and returning home to a roaring fire. However, such weather has become rarer than rain in July!

Real fireplaces (not gas) are a rare thing nowadays.  We used to have one when I was a kid, and I loved it, but it was a hassle and mess so my dad got it blocked up.  And of course very dangerous. 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
06 August 2026 01:21:19

I just don't understand why all the summer stuff gets cleared in early August. It gets more and more difficult to get bbq charcoal after July. Surely if temperatures are still in the 20s or higher, keep selling it - even if it's in smaller volumes!?

Originally Posted by: GezM 

My Tesco removed all the disposable BBQs just before the world cup final on wildfire safety grounds.  Shame, as I really enjoyed using them to cook small amounts for one person.  Even the garden centres dont sell them.  I dont have a real BBQ and I'm not going to fork out for one.  Too much cleaning and mess anyway. the disposables were so easy and convenient. 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

White Meadows
06 August 2026 04:44:27

My Tesco removed all the disposable BBQs just before the world cup final on wildfire safety grounds.  Shame, as I really enjoyed using them to cook small amounts for one person.  Even the garden centres dont sell them.  I dont have a real BBQ and I'm not going to fork out for one.  Too much cleaning and mess anyway. the disposables were so easy and convenient. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Very bad for the environment, mind. Where I live the local parks and beach greens have dozens of scorched patches every summer. Being too hot to dispose of quickly people either bury them under shingle still smouldering or simply leave them cooking the lawns. Crazy in dry conditions and way more dangerous than an open fire. At home there’s no excuse not to get a real bbq, they’re not all that expensive, costs saved over the long run and better for our planet. 

Jiries
06 August 2026 05:10:36

Very bad for the environment, mind. Where I live the local parks and beach greens have dozens of scorched patches every summer. Being too hot to dispose of quickly people either bury them under shingle still smouldering or simply leave them cooking the lawns. Crazy in dry conditions and way more dangerous than an open fire. At home there’s no excuse not to get a real bbq, they’re not all that expensive, costs saved over the long run and better for our planet. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Don’t know why they create this disposable BBQ as we had none of those in the past and if other country don’t make them.  This should be ban for sale now.  I have one here a plain rectangle 1ft by 2ft with legs folded for storage and easy to clean.  Are we going to have heatwave 6 thread? 

Roger Parsons
06 August 2026 05:37:44
I can't say I've every enjoyed the poorly-cooked greasy food that passes as a UK barbecue. Still less the evening smoke and stink from local attempts. Go to any nature reserve and you are likely to see the scars of this rural ritual, not forgetting the heap of cans and other rubbish left in the car park. Don't get me on about dog mess.  What a horrible species we are. Whatever happened to "Take nothing but photos, leave nothing but footprints"?
RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Rob K
06 August 2026 07:53:43
Just as a footnote to this thread, it looks like we had an additional 32C day on July 16th with 32.1C at Marnhull. The highest auto figure that day was 30.6. 

I would put this in the mid July heatwave (no 3?) thread but that has been moved to classics. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
06 August 2026 11:11:12
And one other pleasing manual station stat: I thought July 19th had just prevented every single day in July from reaching 80F somewhere in the UK, as the max reported on the day was 26.6C. However Westonzoyland in Somerset reached 26.7C which is 80.06F - so assuming that is accepted we did indeed hit 80 every day.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
06 August 2026 11:36:41

I can't say I've every enjoyed the poorly-cooked greasy food that passes as a UK barbecue. Still less the evening smoke and stink from local attempts. Go to any nature reserve and you are likely to see the scars of this rural ritual, not forgetting the heap of cans and other rubbish left in the car park. Don't get me on about dog mess.  What a horrible species we are. Whatever happened to "Take nothing but photos, leave nothing but footprints"?

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

Or King Alfred daffs in the middle of nowhere.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Hungry Tiger
06 August 2026 13:00:59
I'm going to keep this thread running and add heatwave No 6 to the title as next week is going to deliver another run of 30s and higher. 🙂🙂🙂
Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Bertwhistle
06 August 2026 13:12:33

I'm going to keep this thread running and add heatwave No 6 to the title as next week is going to deliver another run of 30s and higher. 🙂🙂🙂

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

I think Darren has already started a heatwave 6 thread Gavin. It is clearly a separate event, with these few cooler days.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Roger Parsons
07 August 2026 00:47:26
This BBC piece slots in here nicely.

"As the extremely dry spell continues across much of England and Wales, a small village in Surrey has notched up 50 consecutive days without rain this summer.

Wisley, most famous for being the site of the 240-acre garden owned by the Royal Horticultural Society, saw 36 continuous dry days back in the hot summer of 1976 - but has comfortably exceeded that number so far this year, with no rainfall since mid-June.

It comes after the driest July for England and Wales since Met Office records began 190 years ago, external."

Village sees 50 days without rain during summer heatwave

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c99872dyym1o 


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Roger Parsons
10 August 2026 04:23:53
BBC Weather piece 2 hrs ago.

Brief relief ahead of fifth heatwave - as more areas could move into drought

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cvgx1k415v2o 


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

Retron
10 August 2026 05:01:02

BBC Weather piece 2 hrs ago.

Brief relief ahead of fifth heatwave - as more areas could move into drought

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cvgx1k415v2o 

Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 

It's the sixth heatwave, someone ought to tell the BBC!

Car washes and swimming pools could face water bans as UK set for sixth heatwave

"According to the Met Office, there have already been three widespread heatwaves in the UK so far this year, in addition to two smaller and more localised ones in July."

https://inews.co.uk/news/car-washes-leisure-centres-water-bans-sixth-heatwave-4694192 

And Hadley shows five heatwaves too...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2026/daily_meantemp_cet_2026.png 


Leysdown, north Kent
Roger Parsons
10 August 2026 05:32:43

It's the sixth heatwave, someone ought to tell the BBC!

Car washes and swimming pools could face water bans as UK set for sixth heatwave

"According to the Met Office, there have already been three widespread heatwaves in the UK so far this year, in addition to two smaller and more localised ones in July."

https://inews.co.uk/news/car-washes-leisure-centres-water-bans-sixth-heatwave-4694192 

And Hadley shows five heatwaves too...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2026/daily_meantemp_cet_2026.png 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Serious question. for you, Darren.  Why are those who understand things like science and statistics unable to educate and inform the media, and the public generally? "Those who know" are failing to communicate their knowledge. Instead the world turns to superficial journalism and "influencers" as the source of "truth". Is it our fault? 


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

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