The Weather Outlook

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scillydave
26 July 2026 21:27:04
Well July was in a word, hot, at least for those of us in southern climes. What will August bring? It'd take a brave person to go for a below average guess.

My hunch is for a punchy 17.95c

Here are the Stats to help you with your predictions:

All time CET average for August is 15.67c

1991 - 2020 CET average for August is 16.01c

All time warmest

1995    19.10

1997    19.00

2022    18.70

1947    18.60

1747    18.60

All time Coolest

1912    12.90

1694    13.00

1695    13.00

1725    13.30

1674    13.50

As usual predictions to me by midnight on July 31st via email: [email protected]

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

+6
Bertwhistle
27 July 2026 14:05:35
I'd like a crack at 17.3°C please Dave. That would give us an easy win at CET summer overall.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

+1
Hungry Tiger
28 July 2026 10:20:43
Hi Dave. Hi - just stickied it for you.  

🙂🙂🙂🙂

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Hungry Tiger
28 July 2026 10:23:21
After July's incredible performance.  I think I'll go for. 

18.0C for this August. 🙂🙂🙂

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



scillydave
28 July 2026 13:12:58

Hi Dave. Hi - just stickied it for you.  

🙂🙂🙂🙂

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Thanks Gavin, much appreciated. 😊

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Ally Pally Snowman
31 July 2026 18:46:39
Difficult one , as some model runs going hot and some more  unsettled and cooler.  Don't think the models have a clue tbh.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hungry Tiger
31 July 2026 19:15:25

Difficult one , as some model runs going hot and some more  unsettled and cooler.  Don't think the models have a clue tbh.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Heatwave No 5 is showing up from about the 10th/12th onwards. 🙂🙂🙂

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Ally Pally Snowman
31 July 2026 19:25:05

Heatwave No 5 is showing up from about the 10th/12th onwards. 🙂🙂🙂

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

I think that's heatwave 6, heatwave 5 starts on Sunday. It is difficult as they sort of blend in with each other.  It's been such an extraordinary long spell of warmth. 

Heatwave 5 looks guaranteed but 6 looks more uncertain. 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hungry Tiger
01 August 2026 00:45:22

I think that's heatwave 6, heatwave 5 starts on Sunday. It is difficult as they sort of blend in with each other.  It's been such an extraordinary long spell of warmth. 

Heatwave 5 looks guaranteed but 6 looks more uncertain. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

I know what you mean. I'm now progged for 31C and 30C  for beginning of next week.  🙂🙂🙂🙂

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



+1
Bertwhistle
01 August 2026 14:21:13
With the London GFS ENS mean line sailing above the 10°C isotherm in the outlook, I'm wondering if my 17.3°C is too muted.

Think we need about 16.3°C though to break the summer record.

Of course, at this stage, that's not a foregone conclusion, but we've never been in this position before after a 17.4 June and 19.5 July.

(And hi Tom if you're lurking).

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

+1
Bolty
01 August 2026 14:31:12
I'll go for 17.6. Another comfortably above average month, resulting in easily the warmest summer on record, but not to the extent of July.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station 

Hungry Tiger
01 August 2026 22:57:14

I think that's heatwave 6, heatwave 5 starts on Sunday. It is difficult as they sort of blend in with each other.  It's been such an extraordinary long spell of warmth. 

Heatwave 5 looks guaranteed but 6 looks more uncertain. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Wrt heatwave No6. I've taken a mental bet on that one being in September.  However,  August could deliver it instead.  If that's the case then September could deliver almost anything.  🙂🙂🙂

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Bertwhistle
02 August 2026 13:33:25
HadCET 16.8°C to 1st August.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Hungry Tiger
02 August 2026 15:32:55

HadCET 16.8°C to 1st August.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

A bit lower than I expected.  🙂🙂🙂

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Bertwhistle
03 August 2026 12:24:34
HadCET 17.4°C to the 2nd.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
04 August 2026 12:23:39
HadCET 19.0°C to 3rd, after a 22+ day.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Hungry Tiger
04 August 2026 12:33:04

HadCET 19.0°C to 3rd, after a 22+ day.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

😵😵😵😵

That didn't take long to whack that up. 🙂🙂🙂🙂

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Bertwhistle
05 August 2026 13:01:28

😵😵😵😵

That didn't take long to whack that up. 🙂🙂🙂🙂

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Looks like it's shot up to 19.7°C yesterday- just awaiting Hadley's maths.

Edit: confirmed.

HadCET 19.7°C to 4th.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Gavin D
05 August 2026 13:07:29
Hadley

19.7 to the 4th

3.9c above the 61 to 90 average

2.4c above the 91 to 20 average

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
05 August 2026 13:08:01

Looks like it's shot up to 19.7°C yesterday- just awaiting Hadley's maths.

Edit: confirmed.

HadCET 19.7°C to 4th.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Likely to tumble over next 3 days with some cool Stonyhurst maxima and chilly nights. 

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Bertwhistle
05 August 2026 13:10:06

Likely to tumble over next 3 days with some cool Stonyhurst maxima and chilly nights. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Agree. But current outlook suggests a bolstering from Sunday, perhaps out as far as Thursday or Friday. Open door after that.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Bertwhistle
06 August 2026 12:22:08
Eagerly awaiting the mean to yesterday, as, although it was a lower max, the preceding night was warm, so it should still be around 19.6 give or take a tenth. 

Today's will bring it down potentially below 19 though.

Edit: confirmed as 19.5°C to 5th.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Gavin D
06 August 2026 13:02:10
Hadley

19.5 to the 5th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average

2.1c above the 91 to 20 average

Hungry Tiger
06 August 2026 14:36:29

Hadley

19.5 to the 5th

3.8c above the 61 to 90 average

2.1c above the 91 to 20 average

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

First week of August effectively and we'll over 19.0C. 

😵😵😵😵

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Rob K
06 August 2026 15:32:55

First week of August effectively and we'll over 19.0C. 

😵😵😵😵

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Given the relatively cool first few days of July I wondered if that meant we have over 20C on the 30-day rolling mean again, but not quite... 19.8C up to yesterday.

Highest 30-day rolling mean this summer has been 20.7C from June 18 to July 17. I think that may be a record?

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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