The Weather Outlook

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Bertwhistle
26 July 2026 18:06:26

Still very impressive. Suppose we get something like 18.5C for August. I wonder where that would place this summer. We did well in June. ๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Agreed. You wouldn't need much more than a slightly warmer than average August though to take the hottest CET summer record. Maybe 16.3?


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Rob K
26 July 2026 18:35:26

There's some scorchers progged for next week.ย  I reckon a 20C is almost nailed now. ๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

I was out of internet range most of the weekend but I assume there were some hot runs which seem to have vanished from the output now? The heat this coming week seems to be a one day wonder.ย 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." โ€” Jerome K. Jerome

Hungry Tiger
26 July 2026 19:37:16

Looks like this July will be like the England football team.

A week ago we all expected it to win but now we are hoping for victory in a 3rd place play off with July 2018 at best.

19c+ is still elite and puts 2026 in the box seat to be comfortably the hottest summer ever though

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

When Dave puts up the August CET watch I'm going for 18.0C. I would have thought that's easily possible.ย  ๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Bertwhistle
27 July 2026 09:08:50

When Dave puts up the August CET watch I'm going for 18.0C. I would have thought that's easily possible.ย  ๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

If it does, we'll smash the summer record with the first ever 18+ CET.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Bertwhistle
27 July 2026 12:43:18
Had CET remains at 19.5ยฐC to 26th thanks to a high (16) minimum.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Rob K
27 July 2026 15:18:16

Looking at the hyear's CETs to date, only January hasn't come in in the top 10 of this extensive series.

Feb 6th

March 10th

April 8th

May 8th

June 3rd

July's looking to be there as well (although we'd need something above 20 from here on as an average to beat 2006).

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

And looking at the chart, it appears that every month except January has had at least one record high daily CET mean? Or at least equalled it?ย https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2026/daily_meantemp_cet_2026.png 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." โ€” Jerome K. Jerome

Bertwhistle
28 July 2026 12:39:18
Looks like it could well be holding on by a whisker to 19.5ยฐC to 27th.

Edit: confirmed. A very warm night last night and higher daytimes across the triangle today- maybe enough to nudge 19.6 but I suspect we'll have to see Wednesday out for that.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Retron
28 July 2026 12:48:03

And looking at the chart, it appears that every month except January has had at least one record high daily CET mean? Or at least equalled it?ย https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2026/daily_meantemp_cet_2026.png 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Compare with last year's here:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/graphs/2025/daily_meantemp_cet_2025.png 

and yes, you're spot on.


Leysdown, north Kent
Bertwhistle
29 July 2026 11:25:56
Whilst it's unlikely we'll match the CET record from July 2006, the CET max record could go. I'm awaiting the daily HadCET release to check yesterday, but today will maintain or possibly slightly increase the 25.7 from the day before. July 2006's record CET max was 25.6.

With just 2 days to go out of 31 after today, every degree and a half below this will give just a 0.1 drop overall. A close one!


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Gavin D
29 July 2026 12:24:09
Hadley

19.6 to the 28th

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average

2.8cย above the 91 to 20 average

Hungry Tiger
29 July 2026 15:32:50

Hadley

19.6 to the 28th

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average

2.8cย above the 91 to 20 average

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

As far as I'm concerned anything over 19.0C is incredible.ย  ๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Bertwhistle
30 July 2026 12:46:05
HadCET keeping it at 19.6ยฐC to 29th.ย 
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Rob K
30 July 2026 14:24:32

HadCET keeping it at 19.6ยฐC to 29th.ย 

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Am I right that anything above 19.4 would be the second warmest month on record?


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." โ€” Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
30 July 2026 14:50:21

HadCET keeping it at 19.6ยฐC to 29th.ย 

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Given yesterdayโ€™s weather we must have gone from a rounded-up 19.55 to a rounded-down 19.6499


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Bertwhistle
30 July 2026 18:40:00

Given yesterdayโ€™s weather we must have gone from a rounded-up 19.55 to a rounded-down 19.6499

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Something like that.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Bertwhistle
30 July 2026 18:42:32

Am I right that anything above 19.4 would be the second warmest month on record?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yes, as can be seen on the ranked archives:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_ranked_monthly.txt 

Of greater interest to me now is the chance of yet another hottest ever summer.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Gavin D
31 July 2026 12:46:53
Hadley

19.6 to the 30th

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average

2.8cย above the 91 to 20 average

Hungry Tiger
31 July 2026 16:35:36

Hadley

19.6 to the 30th

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average

2.8cย above the 91 to 20 average

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

I assume that's what will end up on. It got toย  27C around mine. Hardly cool. ๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™ƒ๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Jiries
31 July 2026 17:31:09
Might be the correct thread here to mentioned about the N/S split that been going on for whole summer since May.ย  ย I been thinking what the outcome be like if we didn't have a split?ย  First I think we would be having French type high temperatures nationwide from 30C north of Scotland to 40C in London during heatwaves and then drop back to low 20's in Scotland to mid to high 20's in the south during dry cool blips.

If was on opposite direction I think we would be extremely worse than 2012 summer, very cold temperatures of 10-15c in Scotland to 12-16C in London with rare over 20C days never made it to the average possibly.due to rain every day.ย  Can't bare thinking about it and when this split will end?

Also why it have to be in the Uk to get a split? other countries in any zone don't have split that last for weeks to months, just a day or two when there a frontal boundary move by.

Rob K
01 August 2026 08:25:04
The north south split is really just down to geography. France is all continental but the UK is a fairly narrow landmass extended up into the sea - Scotland has relatively cold water on three sides of it so itโ€™s never going to have that continental climate. The south is close enough to mainland Europe with only a short track of warmer sea separating it which doesnโ€™t cause much modification if the air is coming from the south.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." โ€” Jerome K. Jerome

Hungry Tiger
01 August 2026 15:00:08
Just seen. It's official.ย  We ended up with

19.5C. Pretty impressive if you ask me.ย  I was a full 1C out. So I won't be scoring very well hereย  . ๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



lanky
01 August 2026 17:24:56
19.51 to 2 dec places based on (max+min)/2
Martin

Richmond, Surrey

Ally Pally Snowman
02 August 2026 10:34:11
We all went too low then. ๐Ÿ˜„

Slightly cooler nights probably stopped it from being a 20c + month


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
02 August 2026 14:13:12
So the second warmest month in the whole CET record. I really don't remember too much about July 2006 but to beat this month it must have been exceptional.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." โ€” Jerome K. Jerome

Bertwhistle
02 August 2026 15:05:02

So the second warmest month in the whole CET record. I really don't remember too much about July 2006 but to beat this month it must have been exceptional.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

There were 3 notable heatwaves here in the south- the first 4 days; then the 16th-21st, which brought the then highest July temperature on record on 19th; the heat recharged on 24th through to 28th. But for some places heatwave criteria were maintained in the gap between 2 and 3 I think. The 20th was the most humid, sweaty day I can remember here. It was the end of the school year and we were all drenched taking down displays in the classrooms.

I can remember what I was doing on several of those days. Locally there were tropical nights too but in the last of the waves we were at Longleat Centerparcs and the elevation and pines just brought some relief from the heat.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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