The Weather Outlook

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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 July 2026 08:27:07

Surprised to see that in my area most gauges are within the typical range, albeit at the lower end

Originally Posted by: GezM 

I suspect these are chalk streams eking out the last of heavy rainfall over the winter. (Lea, Ver, Chess, Bulbourne would qualify)

Compare for instance groundwater levels in the catchment of my local chalk stream

https://sites.google.com/view/groundwatergraphs/home/groundwater-data/sussex/chilgrove-west-dean-to-east-dean-chilgrove 


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

Gandalf The White
21 July 2026 08:45:03

I suspect these are chalk streams eking out the last of heavy rainfall over the winter. (Lea, Ver, Bulbourne would qualify)

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Yes, I was thinking back to how extraordinarily wet it was in the early weeks of the year.

One of the problems up here is that the top soil, such as it is, only goes down about a spade’s depth and below that is a very hard subsoil that even tree roots can’t penetrate. Thus we go from absolutely saturated ground to bone dry relatively quickly.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Saint Snow
21 July 2026 09:23:43
How is agriculture doing?

I believe up to June was OK, but July has been too dry.

We have a couple of farmers on here; what's your take?


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Northern Sky
21 July 2026 09:30:59
It's depressing to drive past new planning developments where supposed biodiversity off set has been planted. In reality developers chop down mature trees, clear scrub and woodland habitat and 'mitigate' by planting young trees. Very rarely are these trees given any kind of after care so what happens in dry spells is they very predictably all die. 

 

tierradelfuego
21 July 2026 09:32:38

I suspect these are chalk streams eking out the last of heavy rainfall over the winter. (Lea, Ver, Chess, Bulbourne would qualify)

Compare for instance groundwater levels in the catchment of my local chalk stream

https://sites.google.com/view/groundwatergraphs/home/groundwater-data/sussex/chilgrove-west-dean-to-east-dean-chilgrove 

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Surprisingly around here, the aquifers are still in a reasonable state. I don't know how but some are Steady as opposed to Falling.

To be honest we did start March with all of them topping out at record heights or thereabouts so that certainly helped.

In general most are pretty much in the middle of the "normal range" and the temps in the Lambourn are around 15c so pretty normal.


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

tierradelfuego
21 July 2026 12:31:36
Well 3 hours after the above and Thames Water announces a hosepipe ban. Going to get some good exercise with watering cans then.
Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

bledur
21 July 2026 13:39:22

How is agriculture doing?

I believe up to June was OK, but July has been too dry.

We have a couple of farmers on here; what's your take?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Very dry here exacerbated by long run of high temps.No rainfall in July so far here so grass growth completely stopped and burnt up.Looks more like California with just the trees and hedges green.

Harvest is nearly finished extraordinarily early with many crops dying rather than ripening.Yields are down and by quite a lot and the bushel weight is low.

The difference to last year is that groundwater levels are generally higher and there was a good crop of fodder although that is having to be fed already.Several dairy farms are housing their cows due to the heat .High yielding dairy cows just won't eat enough in these conditions and do better on winter rations in the shed.

All in all a bit challenging.

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
21 July 2026 14:09:47
I'm not a farmer but there is a large wheat field near here where the harvesting has ceased for a week or so. I think it might be because of the risk of fire. The outside was harvested first last month, with the aim perhaps of creating a firebreak if it did catch fire. I drove by earlier today and it remains unharvested. There have been several cereal fires this year around here. 

Yesterday I passed a couple using a disposable BBQ on the beach a few metres from a dead gorse-covered cliff...

Meanwhile, though I accept that for some people this isn't a particularly serious situation, some of our civil servants think otherwise.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/national-drought-group-steps-up-response-after-third-heatwave 

I await the outcome of the forecast for 'ample' rain this coming Saturday.  I am not optimistic for meaningful amounts though.

Edit. I noticed the field is cleared and straw baled up and removed. Does anyone remember the days of attaching a burning tyre to a tractor with a chain and driving around to burn off the stubble? 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 July 2026 15:14:00

Harvest is nearly finished extraordinarily early with many crops dying rather than ripening.Yields are down and by quite a lot and the bushel weight is low.

Originally Posted by: bledur 

Offset a bit by avoiding energy costs to dry grain to acceptable moisture content for storage? Does that make a significant difference?


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

bledur
21 July 2026 17:14:39

Offset a bit by avoiding energy costs to dry grain to acceptable moisture content for storage? Does that make a significant difference?

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Yes it does,nothing worse than a soggy wet harvest ,drying every load ,grains sprouting in the ear.However this is too much the other direction with the drought and heat killing the crops.Added to that the fire risk is very worrying with the slightest spark or hot bearing starting a fire.

Some years you could not start a fire in a cornfield however much you tried.😄

bledur
21 July 2026 17:22:01

I'm not a farmer but there is a large wheat field near here where the harvesting has ceased for a week or so. I think it might be because of the risk of fire. The outside was harvested first last month, with the aim perhaps of creating a firebreak if it did catch fire. I drove by earlier today and it remains unharvested. There have been several cereal fires this year around here. 

Yesterday I passed a couple using a disposable BBQ on the beach a few metres from a dead gorse-covered cliff...

Meanwhile, though I accept that for some people this isn't a particularly serious situation, some of our civil servants think otherwise.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/national-drought-group-steps-up-response-after-third-heatwave 

I await the outcome of the forecast for 'ample' rain this coming Saturday.  I am not optimistic for meaningful amounts though.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

If this drought goes on it might wake up the Water Companies who have not invested in water storage despite a  far bigger population.There are already problems in some areas and I have heard of some dairy farms struggling with water supply.

Crazy situation really as we get masses of rain at certain times of year.

Thames water are planning to build a new large reservoir in Oxfordshire but people locally are against it yet be the first to moan when they face restrictions.

Rob K
21 July 2026 20:12:39
Went on an extended route on my morning run today and saw quite a few trees looking in a very poor state. Some quite mature silver birches in the middle of town look to be dead - leaves all brown. I'm not sure whether that is the case or whether they just enter an early autumnal state and will come back in spring?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

speckledjim
21 July 2026 20:44:49

Went on an extended route on my morning run today and saw quite a few trees looking in a very poor state. Some quite mature silver birches in the middle of town look to be dead - leaves all brown. I'm not sure whether that is the case or whether they just enter an early autumnal state and will come back in spring?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Same happened last year I noticed but come Spring they were fine.


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

MRazzell
21 July 2026 21:02:50

Went on an extended route on my morning run today and saw quite a few trees looking in a very poor state. Some quite mature silver birches in the middle of town look to be dead - leaves all brown. I'm not sure whether that is the case or whether they just enter an early autumnal state and will come back in spring?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Shallow rooted and hate exposure to heat and drought; Birch are always the first to go. 


Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
Tom Oxon
21 July 2026 22:40:20
Models definitely starting to hint at the drought breaking towards the end of the month
S Warwickshire countryside, c.375ft asl.
22 July 2026 00:17:42

Stop trolling, Matty, and look around you

https://www.gaugemap.co.uk/# !Map/Summary/502/510

Originally Posted by: DEW 

To call a jokey post that gives some much needed perspective to the hysteria on here trolling is rich, this forum seems to me to be full of people obsessed with drought on a temperate Island, it's to the point where I think they must be trolling!! 

Despite the massive population increases, disinvestment and subsequent dilapidation of the infrastructure for profit. We never come even remotely close to running out of water anywhere..

White Meadows
22 July 2026 02:47:19

It's depressing to drive past new planning developments where supposed biodiversity off set has been planted. In reality developers chop down mature trees, clear scrub and woodland habitat and 'mitigate' by planting young trees. Very rarely are these trees given any kind of after care so what happens in dry spells is they very predictably all die. 

 

Originally Posted by: Northern Sky 

This is definitely the case in many of the ever-expanding ‘villages’ where I live; Swathes of tightly packed red brick communes, having sacrificed large deep rooted trees and dense vegetation, all ripped up and replaced by virgin saplings fresh from the nursery - Only to become scorched leafless sticks within 12 months because the developers only care about cash return. 

I suspect moisture levels remain healthy at deeper levels due to record wet Jan-Feb period but the first 12” of top soil very much like concrete. 

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
22 July 2026 06:14:13

To call a jokey post that gives some much needed perspective to the hysteria on here trolling is rich, this forum seems to me to be full of people obsessed with drought on a temperate Island, it's to the point where I think they must be trolling!! 

Despite the massive population increases, disinvestment and subsequent dilapidation of the infrastructure for profit. We never come even remotely close to running out of water anywhere..

Originally Posted by: HighPressureGloom 

With respect I agree that I doubt we will ever ‘run out’ of potable water. However, coming from a background in fisheries management and horticulture, I can see how the chronic effects of our current water management creates all manner of issues from an environmental angle. For example dried up watercourses for salmonid and other freshwater fish spawning areas/habitats and the costs of dealing with wildfires being but two. Woodland creation and the need for establishment irrigation is another as Whitermeadows and others mention. Many of us are perhaps unaware that just planting trees is not the ‘be all’ of new woodland. We are only just beginning to understand how important underground fungi networks are for trees and all plants.  Some of the alleviation ideas such as using canals to transport water forget the erosion that would surely follow with the stronger currents created. And transporting water in a National Grid whilst feasible and the Romans did it, has environmental consequences, including when taking acid water to alkaline scaled pipes. I learnt that one with Wessex Water. I won’t go into it here. Desalination proponents perhaps don’t understand the effects of highly concentrated salt water where it is discharged...


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

MRazzell
22 July 2026 07:45:12

To call a jokey post that gives some much needed perspective to the hysteria on here trolling is rich, this forum seems to me to be full of people obsessed with drought on a temperate Island, it's to the point where I think they must be trolling!! 

Despite the massive population increases, disinvestment and subsequent dilapidation of the infrastructure for profit. We never come even remotely close to running out of water anywhere..

Originally Posted by: HighPressureGloom 

You're confusing pumped water availability with drought. 


Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
bledur
22 July 2026 08:02:41

To call a jokey post that gives some much needed perspective to the hysteria on here trolling is rich, this forum seems to me to be full of people obsessed with drought on a temperate Island, it's to the point where I think they must be trolling!! 

Despite the massive population increases, disinvestment and subsequent dilapidation of the infrastructure for profit. We never come even remotely close to running out of water anywhere..

Originally Posted by: HighPressureGloom 

It would only take a dry winter and another hot dry summer to blow your theory of not running out of water into oblivion..

Drought and high temps are causing all sorts of problems ATM but probably not affecting you in person..

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 July 2026 08:12:00

To call a jokey post that gives some much needed perspective to the hysteria on here trolling is rich, this forum seems to me to be full of people obsessed with drought on a temperate Island, it's to the point where I think they must be trolling!! 

Despite the massive population increases, disinvestment and subsequent dilapidation of the infrastructure for profit. We never come even remotely close to running out of water anywhere..

Originally Posted by: HighPressureGloom 

The Scale of the Problem: Analysis by Water UK warns there may only be enough spare water to serve 420,000 of the government's 1.5 million target homes, placing up to 1.1 million homes at risk in constrained areas.

Localised Moratoriums: Areas of high water stress, like the Sussex North Water Supply Zone, have faced effective moratoriums until developers could demonstrate "water neutrality"

[AI search on 'house building restricted by water supply']

And as for the current drought, just travel south looking at grasslands and gardens as you go


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

bledur
22 July 2026 08:12:30

Models definitely starting to hint at the drought breaking towards the end of the month

Originally Posted by: Tom Oxon 

Yes maybe.Brians weather outlook forecast did mention that it might turn more mixed than what the models were leaning towards.

22 July 2026 23:41:34

It would only take a dry winter and another hot dry summer to blow your theory of not running out of water into oblivion..

Drought and high temps are causing all sorts of problems ATM but probably not affecting you in person..

Originally Posted by: bledur 

You do know that temperate island by the very definition receive regular rainfall throughout the seasons were aren't changing our position on the globe and the global weather patterns aren't fundamentally changing we aren't becoming Rhodes. You do seem a bit Doolally is it the water company PR machine? 

Jiries
23 July 2026 05:32:34

This is definitely the case in many of the ever-expanding ‘villages’ where I live; Swathes of tightly packed red brick communes, having sacrificed large deep rooted trees and dense vegetation, all ripped up and replaced by virgin saplings fresh from the nursery - Only to become scorched leafless sticks within 12 months because the developers only care about cash return. 

I suspect moisture levels remain healthy at deeper levels due to record wet Jan-Feb period but the first 12” of top soil very much like concrete. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

I remember seeing reports of new small trees died in the 2018 summer too.  

White Meadows
23 July 2026 06:09:40
The everlasting dryness looks set to continue until at least early August for the southern contingent. 

Don’t think I’ve heard a lawnmower whirring since early June. 

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