The Weather Outlook

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Jiries
16 July 2026 21:00:36
I think the weeds that used to stay alive during long dry spell are finally dying off and much welcome to see this occuring.    Last time the drought that killed the stinging nettles was in 1995 so this year which seem to be heading to 1995 type.  Some footpaths that used to be unaccessable during summer due to stinging nettles was able to walk though as they were all gladly dead.  Last rain was during the unforecast thunderstorm on a Monday night in June that give a wet dampness only.  Will be sightseeing the beautiful parched landscape on Saturdxay as now it all very yellow.  I think there hoseban in this area but not sure as I don't use it anyway but i just watered one of the mystery plant that I think it from Cyprus from a seed I brougth in 2019 was turning yellow so I dug the soil nearby and down to 5cm very dry so I put water gently right on the plant stem base, little by little so not to flow off away and focus this plant, I don';t want to wet more than 5cm from the plant so weeds don't grow around it.  
fairweather
16 July 2026 22:14:42
I suspect this current drought is more widespread that those in April and May and the effects higher risk due to the high temperatures.. We have had no rain  to speak of since June 23rd.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
MRazzell
17 July 2026 07:15:16

I suspect this current drought is more widespread that those in April and May and the effects higher risk due to the high temperatures.. We have had no rain  to speak of since June 23rd.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Its getting critical here now on hard Wealden Clay; Upstairs the bedroom door has started to stick and cracks are appearing in most rooms. In the garden many herbaceous perennials would be dead were it not for the fact we're mercifully not under hosepipe restrictions yet.

Its important that we recognise drought as a natural process and don't confuse it with water authority restrictions - they are two very different situations. Whilst we are not under any formal restrictions in my region we are most certainly experiencing one of the worst droughts of my lifetime. It may be shorter (so far) than others, but the prolonged heat is exacerbating its effect. 

Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
MRazzell
17 July 2026 07:17:20

I think the weeds that used to stay alive during long dry spell are finally dying off and much welcome to see this occuring.    Last time the drought that killed the stinging nettles was in 1995 so this year which seem to be heading to 1995 type.  Some footpaths that used to be unaccessable during summer due to stinging nettles was able to walk though as they were all gladly dead.  Last rain was during the unforecast thunderstorm on a Monday night in June that give a wet dampness only.  Will be sightseeing the beautiful parched landscape on Saturdxay as now it all very yellow.  I think there hoseban in this area but not sure as I don't use it anyway but i just watered one of the mystery plant that I think it from Cyprus from a seed I brougth in 2019 was turning yellow so I dug the soil nearby and down to 5cm very dry so I put water gently right on the plant stem base, little by little so not to flow off away and focus this plant, I don';t want to wet more than 5cm from the plant so weeds don't grow around it.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

https://www.wildlifetrusts.org/wildlife-explorer/wildflowers/stinging-nettle 

Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 July 2026 07:33:42

Its getting critical here now on hard Wealden Clay; Upstairs the bedroom door has started to stick and cracks are appearing in most rooms. In the garden many herbaceous perennials would be dead were it not for the fact we're mercifully not under hosepipe restrictions yet.

Its important that we recognise drought as a natural process and don't confuse it with water authority restrictions - they are two very different situations. Whilst we are not under any formal restrictions in my region we are most certainly experiencing one of the worst droughts of my lifetime. It may be shorter (so far) than others, but the prolonged heat is exacerbating its effect. 

Originally Posted by: MRazzell 

Driving from Wealden Clay near Haslemere to Greensand at Hindhead, you could tell (until the road was resurfaced) where the clay ended and the sand began by the transition from a broken and cracked road surface to a smooth and coherent one. Do you notice the same in your area, e.g. driving along the old A21 from Tonbridge to Sevenoaks?

It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

+1
Gandalf The White
17 July 2026 08:00:59

It is ridiculous that Britain of all places should be short of water. Too much money going to shareholders and not enough invested in infrastructure and fixing leaks.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I really think it’s much more than that: it’s about our changing climate and increasing population. More heat waves clearly don’t help, nor does the apparent increasing tendency for weather patterns to get locked. 

There's also the much discussed impacts in the natural world, exacerbated by humans taking too much water from the natural environment. 

Yes, investment has been insufficient but it’s only part of the story.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



MRazzell
17 July 2026 08:29:50

Driving from Wealden Clay near Haslemere to Greensand at Hindhead, you could tell (until the road was resurfaced) where the clay ended and the sand began by the transition from a broken and cracked road surface to a smooth and coherent one. Do you notice the same in your area, e.g. driving along the old A21 from Tonbridge to Sevenoaks?

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Yes, very much so. Another key indicator is mains water leaks seeping through the road surface where the ying and yang of heave/subsidance fractures the pipes. I counted four on my 16mile drive to work this morning. Potentially unfair to square that one solely on the water authorities. 

Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 July 2026 21:07:54
This is where all the rain has gone

NYC hit with flash flood warnings as downpours batter Big Apple and force flight delays

https://nypost.com/2026/07/18/us-news/nyc-hit-with-flash-flood-warnings-force-airport-flight-delays/ 

It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2026 08:21:36
BBC presenter Sarah Keith-Lucas promising one more week of dry weather before useful rain - and BBC presenters are not known for wild predictions
It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

+1
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2026 09:20:17
I hope it's just one more week before useful rain, though I won't be popular with some for agreeing to that.

Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

HighPressureGloom
19 July 2026 10:21:22

I really think it’s much more than that: it’s about our changing climate and increasing population. More heat waves clearly don’t help, nor does the apparent increasing tendency for weather patterns to get locked. 

There's also the much discussed impacts in the natural world, exacerbated by humans taking too much water from the natural environment. 

Yes, investment has been insufficient but it’s only part of the story.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

We live on a wet temperate Island greed and lack of investment is the huge overriding issue everything else is semantics. 

johncs2016
19 July 2026 21:55:55
Here  is the latest report on yet another wildfire which has broken out on Arthur's Seat here in Edinburgh not all that long after other recent wildfires on Blackford Hill in the south of Edinburgh and in the Cairngorms.

This fire on Arthur's Seat is the worst one which I've seen yet. I could see the smoke from covering a very large area from my living room and bedroom windows and even tonight, I can even see some flames extending out from the side of Arthur's Seat.

This has become so serious now that it has just got really ridiculous and I do wonder how much worse this situation is going to get before we finally get some much needed rain which is the only thing which will remove or at the very least, minimise the risks of that continuing to happen.

Luckily, no-one has been injured with that but as these wildfires continue to get even worse over time, I fear that it is only a matter of time before that is no longer the case, and before people actually end up getting killed by that.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2026 06:15:12

This has become so serious now that it has just got really ridiculous and I do wonder how much worse this situation is going to get before we finally get some much needed rain which is the only thing which will remove or at the very least, minimise the risks of that continuing to happen.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

If it's bad in Edinburgh, imagine how dry the vegetation is in Sussex - 30C temps, no rain for 30 days, and several days of a viciously drying easterly wind. No cloud off the North Sea to mitigate conditions.

So far Sussex has got off lightly with a few local fires, soon extinguished, but it only requires one stupid person with a disposable barbecue...

It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

Retron
20 July 2026 06:30:31

If it's bad in Edinburgh, imagine how dry the vegetation is in Sussex - 30C temps, no rain for 30 days, and several days of a viciously drying easterly wind. No cloud off the North Sea to mitigate conditions.

So far Sussex has got off lightly with a few local fires, soon extinguished, but it only requires one stupid person with a disposable barbecue...

Originally Posted by: DEW 

And now the kids are off school and the countryside is about to bustle with people... I can imagine it'll be a long, long 6 weeks. 

The GFS this morning paints a grim picture down here if it's rain you're after, this is the total for the next 16 days:

https://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2026072000/384-777UK.GIF?20-0 

UserPostedImage

Leysdown, north Kent
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2026 07:06:09

If it's bad in Edinburgh, imagine how dry the vegetation is in Sussex - 30C temps, no rain for 30 days, and several days of a viciously drying easterly wind. No cloud off the North Sea to mitigate conditions.

So far Sussex has got off lightly with a few local fires, soon extinguished, but it only requires one stupid person with a disposable barbecue...

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Or camping stove.

https://www.dorsetecho.co.uk/news/26291552.purbeck---huge-fire-breaks-wareham-festival-grounds/ 

Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

scillydave
20 July 2026 07:27:10
No real rain to speak of in the South for the next 2 weeks if the GFS is to be believed. 

A very dry period indeed. I imagine there may well be a few places that have a completely dry July.

Here in South Wales the soil moisture levels are falling a bit more rapidly having held up well following the wet Spring and some decent downpours in early Summer.

Definite signs of water stress on the usual plants and areas now though we are still a way off the brown and dessicated stage.

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Bertwhistle
20 July 2026 10:52:56
Dreadfully dry here, and yet on the Government's river level monitoring site, my local river (The Itchen) is at normal levels.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a58d6eb908b618a53702f05/Rainfall_and_River_Flow_Summary_8_to_14_July_2026.pdf 

And this isn't just down to chalk aquifer- the lower Avon is exceptionally low and the upper Avon notably low.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

idj20
20 July 2026 11:04:39
Summer 2026 - The Search For Rain continues as I enter my 23rd day of no rain and very little signs of it in the foreseeable. 
Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
Matty H
20 July 2026 12:07:24

No real rain to speak of in the South for the next 2 weeks if the GFS is to be believed. 

A very dry period indeed. I imagine there may well be a few places that have a completely dry July.

Here in South Wales the soil moisture levels are falling a bit more rapidly having held up well following the wet Spring and some decent downpours in early Summer.

Definite signs of water stress on the usual plants and areas now though we are still a way off the brown and dessicated stage.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

Met Office weekly forecast on Socials showing the mother of all weather fronts sweeping across the country on Saturday bringing ample rain. Hopefully that misses here 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

+1
White Meadows
20 July 2026 12:58:52

Met Office weekly forecast on Socials showing the mother of all weather fronts sweeping across the country on Saturday bringing ample rain. Hopefully that misses here 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

The horse chestnuts usually have produced nice golf ball sized, green conker cases by now. Instead here in Sussex we have something that resembles  scorched hazelnuts. Not seen this before but a true sign of drought stress even on our deep rooted native trees. 

Jiries
20 July 2026 19:34:33

Summer 2026 - The Search For Rain continues as I enter my 23rd day of no rain and very little signs of it in the foreseeable. 

Originally Posted by: idj20 

Search for a wall to wall sunshine which had been largely absent since early July to before mid month.  Not sure why there so many unstable clouds forming every day despite very dry ground.   

+1
Matty H
20 July 2026 21:46:27

The horse chestnuts usually have produced nice golf ball sized, green conker cases by now. Instead here in Sussex we have something that resembles  scorched hazelnuts. Not seen this before but a true sign of drought stress even on our deep rooted native trees. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Yeah, maybe, but water levels are ok here, and in some areas there are hosepipe bans. I doubt Geldof, Midge Ure and Bono are going to need to reform any time soon

thankfully. 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 July 2026 06:44:17

Yeah, maybe, but water levels are ok here, and in some areas there are hosepipe bans. I doubt Geldof, Midge Ure and Bono are going to need to reform any time soon

thankfully. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Stop trolling, Matty, and look around you

https://www.gaugemap.co.uk/# !Map/Summary/502/510

It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

+1
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
21 July 2026 08:02:56

Stop trolling, Matty, and look around you

https://www.gaugemap.co.uk/# !Map/Summary/502/510

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Surprised to see that in my area most gauges are within the typical range, albeit at the lower end

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Gandalf The White
21 July 2026 08:06:22

Stop trolling, Matty, and look around you

https://www.gaugemap.co.uk/# !Map/Summary/502/510

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Interesting, thanks for the link.

The Cam near Cambridge is at 6 inches, at the very bottom of the normal range, which goes up to 4 feet.  Others I’ve checked at random in the SE broadly similar: near the bottom of the normal range.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



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