The Weather Outlook

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Spring Sun Winter Dread
19 July 2026 12:03:20
Looks like this July will be like the England football team.

A week ago we all expected it to win but now we are hoping for victory in a 3rd place play off with July 2018 at best.

19c+ is still elite and puts 2026 in the box seat to be comfortably the hottest summer ever though

Bertwhistle
19 July 2026 12:32:09
HadCET 20.2° to 18th.

Only 17.2°C yesterday.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Rob K
20 July 2026 09:05:48

HadCET 20.2° to 18th.

Only 17.2°C yesterday.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

A quite chilly night by recent standards, Stonyhurst got down to 10.4, Rothamsted 7.3C and Pershore 6.9C, so the CET will take quite a hit today I think. Maxima for today looking like about 21, 23 and 26 for the three sites, so maybe a daily mean somewhere around 15.5-16.0C. Assuming the monthly figure is 20.0 to yesterday it is likely to drop to 19.8 or maybe even 19.7 after today. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2026 09:28:03
Mean is 16.4C (+1.4C) here currently.

The past several days have been much cooler and down to 5C last night.

North York Moors weather 
Hungry Tiger
20 July 2026 10:06:46

Mean is 16.4C (+1.4C) here currently.

The past several days have been much cooler and down to 5C last night.

Originally Posted by: four 

A nice fresh night last night.  9C .To see a single figures minimum is quite something this summer.  🙂🙂🙂

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Bertwhistle
20 July 2026 10:46:44

A quite chilly night by recent standards, Stonyhurst got down to 10.4, Rothamsted 7.3C and Pershore 6.9C, so the CET will take quite a hit today I think. Maxima for today looking like about 21, 23 and 26 for the three sites, so maybe a daily mean somewhere around 15.5-16.0C. Assuming the monthly figure is 20.0 to yesterday it is likely to drop to 19.8 or maybe even 19.7 after today. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Sounds about right. It should at least stabilise by tomorrow, and maybe edge up again thereafter. Check out the 6z- potential heat returning in earnest in a week's time.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Stormchaser
20 July 2026 11:18:54
Much uncertainty regarding how much of a trough sets up over Scandinavia way and how close to the UK that reaches, with big implications for the CET. Getting an outcome toward the warm end of the scenario range may require the influence of the El Niño event to have been underestimated; it encourages high pressure over northern Europe rather than to the west of there.

Down here the situation is truly remarkable, as even the GFS 00z, which was among the coolest scenarios I've seen for the rest of this month, doesn't prevent a comfortably record-warm calendar month for my local area.

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2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

+3
Gavin D
20 July 2026 12:57:38
Hadley

20.0 to the 19th

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average

3.5c above the 91 to 20 average

+3
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2026 13:39:42

Hadley

20.0 to the 19th

4.0c above the 61 to 90 average

3.5c above the 91 to 20 average

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Was expecting a bigger drop than that give the much cooler night just experienced in the CET zone

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Rob K
20 July 2026 15:29:51

Was expecting a bigger drop than that give the much cooler night just experienced in the CET zone

Originally Posted by: GezM 

Last night was the really chilly one and that won't have been included in the figures yet.

Pershore looks like the warmest place in the country today so far, which will help a bit, anyway!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Bertwhistle
21 July 2026 12:23:48
HadCET 19.9°C to 20th.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Rob K
21 July 2026 12:28:02

HadCET 19.9°C to 20th.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Surprised it didn't drop more, but Pershore was the hot spot with 28.6 yesterday which will have helped.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Bertwhistle
22 July 2026 12:33:44
HadCET 19.7°C to 21st.

Should steady up a bit now.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Bertwhistle
23 July 2026 12:47:58
HadCET stays at 19.7°C to 22nd.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Bertwhistle
23 July 2026 12:53:36
Looking at the hyear's CETs to date, only January hasn't come in in the top 10 of this extensive series.

Feb 6th

March 10th

April 8th

May 8th

June 3rd

July's looking to be there as well (although we'd need something above 20 from here on as an average to beat 2006).

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Hungry Tiger
24 July 2026 12:15:52
Next week's temperatures will keep things in the high 19s. Still reckon now a CET of 20C is now possible.  🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂
Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Bertwhistle
24 July 2026 12:30:26
HadCET 19.6°C to 23rd. Hot days possible next week but a cooler spell, albeit short lived, first.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Bertwhistle
25 July 2026 12:37:01
Looks like CET held at 19.6°C yesterday.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Gavin D
25 July 2026 12:39:46
Hadley

19.6 to the 24th

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average

3.0c above the 91 to 20 average

+2
Bertwhistle
25 July 2026 12:40:13
That means we'd need an average of about 20.7°C for the 7 days remaining to beat the 2006 record. Cooler tomorrow and Stonyhurst is rather chilly today. But with some more heat next week, I reckon we could end up on 19.5°C or higher.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Ally Pally Snowman
25 July 2026 13:19:15

That means we'd need an average of about 20.7°C for the 7 days remaining to beat the 2006 record. Cooler tomorrow and Stonyhurst is rather chilly today. But with some more heat next week, I reckon we could end up on 19.5°C or higher.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

If GFS 6z is correct 20c is still on.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Hungry Tiger
25 July 2026 15:22:48

If GFS 6z is correct 20c is still on.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

There's some scorchers progged for next week.  I reckon a 20C is almost nailed now. 🙂🙂🙂🙂

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Gavin D
26 July 2026 13:02:29
Hadley

19.5 to the 25th

3.5c above the 61 to 90 average

2.8c above the 91 to 20 average

Bertwhistle
26 July 2026 13:14:38
We need an average of about 21.6°C from today onwards to beat the record. Stonyhurst cold again today so today's max won't be much different to that mean target I suspect. Last night was warm, but I reckon it's another 18+ day today, so could be 19.4 after today. Tonight's chillier night means tomorrow won't be that different, so Tuesday - Friday (just 4 days compared to the 27 that would have passed) would need to be scorchers with an average above 23 and the blistering heat- now down to maybe one day- will bypass Stonyhurst. My finishing guess is 19.7°C- I can't see we'll equal 2006 let alone hit the 20.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

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Hungry Tiger
26 July 2026 14:03:54

We need an average of about 21.6°C from today onwards to beat the record. Stonyhurst cold again today so today's max won't be much different to that mean target I suspect. Last night was warm, but I reckon it's another 18+ day today, so could be 19.4 after today. Tonight's chillier night means tomorrow won't be that different, so Tuesday - Friday (just 4 days compared to the 27 that would have passed) would need to be scorchers with an average above 23 and the blistering heat- now down to maybe one day- will bypass Stonyhurst. My finishing guess is 19.7°C- I can't see we'll equal 2006 let alone hit the 20.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Still very impressive. Suppose we get something like 18.5C for August. I wonder where that would place this summer. We did well in June. 🙂🙂🙂

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



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