Wise words.

2006's 19.8 will be a hard one to crack, but quite possible. If at mid-month we are at about 21 we would still need a second half of close to 19 to do that.

Increasing hints are that despite less settled weather for a while temperatures will still be above average, but that might only mean a run of 17s- probably leaving us with a very healthy 19 (only 5 months in the record have made that).

As you say, let's see.

Has anything that high defined a whole month before? The nearest I can find is the min for December 2015 which was 5.1C above the LTA.

Stonyhurst: max 23.9C, min 12.0C: mean = 18.0C

Pershore: max 26.8C, min 14.0C, mean = 20.4C

Rothamsted: max 26.5C, min 13.5C, mean = 20.0C

So that's a mean of 19.5C for today if I am reading the figures correctly. So a small drop, as you say.

A couple of chilly nights coming up in Lancashire especially so not sure how much further it will rise (if at all) this week.

20.5 to the 13th

4.5c above the 61 to 90 average

4.2c above the 91 to 20 average

Pretty impressive and we're just about half way through the month.  🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂

Pretty impressive and we're just about half way through the month.  🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂

20.4 to the 14th

4.5c above the 61 to 90 average

4.1c above the 91 to 20 average

20.5 to the 15th

4.5c above the 61 to 90 average

4.2c above the 91 to 20 average

And when the July CET has been *3 or more above normal just about every August has been warmer than usual.  🙂🙂🙂🙂

Although tbf there is only a small sample, and 1852 is questionable.

As far as I can see the highest 12-month rolling average is 11.66C up to April 2007. Based on the current July figure it looks like we are exactly equal to that, to within 2dp.

If we defied forecasts and had the joint-warmest remainder of July on record, the final CET would be 20.9°C.

Taking the mean if all historical years that were within 2°C of where July 2026 is as of 16th gives a final CET of 19.6°C.

The GFS 00z, which was rather hotter than most guidance for later next week but then toward the cool end for the final few days, gives an estimate in the same ballpark; mid-19s °C.

Even if we somehow had the coldest remainder of July on record, the final CET would be 17.1°C, still about half a °C above the 1991-2020 average!

We're on for at least 19.5C. 🙂🙂🙂🙂

The HADCET Station section of the CET page shows that Rothamsted has 14 of the 16 days recorded so far at or over 20C Mean with an average of 21.6C and Pershore College has 13 days at 20C or over and an average of 21.5. However Stonyhurst only has 4 days reaching 20C and an average of 18.4C.

The recent North South divide looks like being by far the main factor in not reaching an overall 20C average this month

20.4 to the 17th

4.4c above the 61 to 90 average

4.0c above the 91 to 20 average

This next few days will clip it a bit. Temperatures on the way back up at the end of the week.  🙂🙂🙂🙂🙂

20.4 to 17th gives 346.8 degree days.

I consider 18°C to be a hot month. 18.0 would also equal June and July last year overall, following this year's cracking June- on track for an equal hottest ever summer.

To achieve this, I calculate the rest of the month (18th to 31st) would need to average 15.1°C, below average and looking to be exceeded if MO is broadly correct.

I consider 19°C to be a very hot month- after all, there are only a handful of these in the CET record.

To achieve this, I calculate the average for the remaining 14 days to be at least 17.3°C. Again, if the MO is close to the reality, this seems achievable. This would require a fairly warm August to match/ beat last year's summer as a whole.

The hottest CET month, July 2006, was 19.8°C.

To achieve this, the average for the rest of the month would need to be about 19.3°C, a tall order- not impossible, but likely out of reach, especially as the MO restricts the returning warmth/heat to the southernmost stations. Only an average August would then be needed for another record summer.

Thoughts?