The Weather Outlook

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Rob K
02 July 2026 20:16:54
We had a brief spell of illegal unforecasted rain this morning but barely enough to wet the dust. The grass is like straw and plants are showing drought stress. I used the kids' bathwater on the garden this evening.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Matty H
02 July 2026 23:06:13
Not befitting of a “drought” thread, but we don’t have a “fairly dry” thread, and literally no one is panicking, thread 


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Jiries
03 July 2026 05:00:07

Not befitting of a “drought” thread, but we don’t have a “fairly dry” thread, and literally no one is panicking, thread 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Don’t know why in NW have the most silly thread  called heat hater thread? Why no cold hater thread?  Still never seen any drought and still lush green despite no rain and recent heat wave.

johncs2016
03 July 2026 07:04:57

Don’t know why in NW have the most silly thread  called heat hater thread? Why no cold hater thread?  Still never seen any drought and still lush green despite no rain and recent heat wave.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

If you are a member of the NW forum though and would like to see a cold hater’s thread, I’m sure that there would be nothing to stop you from starting such a thread over there yourself.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

tierradelfuego
03 July 2026 08:00:27
Another year, another hosepipe ban in place from Southern Water for Hampshire and IOW. The Test must be suffering a lot although I don't think their aquifers started off as high as around here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c17yv9710d9o 


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
03 July 2026 08:17:10
I realise there are some people who think the UK doesn't get droughts, but last summer we had what I'd call a historic drought in this part of Dorset. If the following winter had remained dry, we'd be in unprecedented territory today, making 1976 look minor by comparison.

That's more so with the huge increase in population here in the south. 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Jiries
03 July 2026 08:55:37

If you are a member of the NW forum though and would like to see a cold hater’s thread, I’m sure that there would be nothing to stop you from starting such a thread over there yourself.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

Not a member but some did but they took it down which is odd?  I love cold with snow but cold for nothing in winter no thanks and cold summer not my liking too.  I also wondering why the grass in this area had not gone parched after the last heatwave? Did not rain here proper since the cold unsettled weather in June, only 2 times rain that dampen it. It did went parched a bit after May heatwave only.

fairweather
04 July 2026 11:31:35
The brief spell of rain at the start of June is long forgotten here. The only rain since then was a decent 15mm downpour on June 23rd and a measly 1.4mm a few days later. Hopefully we will see some storms later in the month to recover things a bit.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
04 July 2026 11:49:34

The brief spell of rain at the start of June is long forgotten here. The only rain since then was a decent 15mm downpour on June 23rd and a measly 1.4mm a few days later. Hopefully we will see some storms later in the month to recover things a bit.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

That's what I'm hoping for too. Sooner, though, would be good and later too for that matter. We need an emergency water storage programme of large and medium infrastructure works. Water butts don't cut the mustard IMO. The average ones you see for sale run out in a week or less. I see Southern Water will introduce hosepipe bans from the 10th for Hants and IOW. The Test once a pristine jewel in the chalk stream world, is becoming a travesty of that name. Trump would say "Continue to drill baby drill."

And from the BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c17yv9710d9o 

"In June, we've actually seen a third of the flow and so the models have just not necessarily predicted that," said Tania Flasck, director of water operations.

"When we've actually measured the levels we've seen it's dropped down a lot, a lot further and faster than we've anticipated."

It almost seems there's a leak in the chalk somewhere... My words.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

johncs2016
04 July 2026 12:16:04

Not a member but some did but they took it down which is odd?  I love cold with snow but cold for nothing in winter no thanks and cold summer not my liking too.  I also wondering why the grass in this area had not gone parched after the last heatwave? Did not rain here proper since the cold unsettled weather in June, only 2 times rain that dampen it. It did went parched a bit after May heatwave only.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Apologies for going off topic here but whilst on the subject of the NW forum, I've just come across something which might interest Jerry from the south of Edinburgh.

Here on TWO, I always refer to him just as Jerry even though his actual username on here is "Crepuscular Ray". Armed with that information, I then checked out the NW forum, it turns out that there is a member of that forum with the username of "Crepuscular Ray", but that member is not our Jerry from the south of Edinburgh.

It turns out that the member in question is actually a women who is located somewhere in Wales, and who regularly posts on the Welsh regional section of that forum.

I obviously don't know whether or not Jerry is a member of the NW forum although regardless of whether he is or not, there are a handful of members over there from here in Edinburgh who mainly post in the Scottish section of that forum.

If we assume that Jerry isn't a member of the NW forum though, the username which he chose for there would need to different from his username here on TWO as a result of the above mentioned woman fromWales having already taken that username over there.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

fairweather
06 July 2026 23:48:52
Beyond funny again. No rain for two weeks again and big cracks. Despite watering some are really large over my allotment and adjacent spring onions are falling into them!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Roger Parsons
07 July 2026 04:18:35

Beyond funny again. No rain for two weeks again and big cracks. Despite watering some are really large over my allotment and adjacent spring onions are falling into them!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

A neighbour with a crop science background commented wryly, "What farmers lose on yields they will at least save on crop drying costs!" We're coming up to St Swithun's Day! 15th July.

"St Swithun's day if thou dost rain

For forty days it will remain

St Swithun's day if thou be fair

For forty days 'twill rain nae mare."


RogerP

West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire

Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.

William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830

MRazzell
07 July 2026 08:19:57

Beyond funny again. No rain for two weeks again and big cracks. Despite watering some are really large over my allotment and adjacent spring onions are falling into them!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

According to the 00Z GFS we may potentially some rain on the 21st July FW...

ECM has something bubbling up over your location 19th...

With nothing frontal and prolonged the best we can hope for is the odd thunder storm, but there’s absolutely no CAPE of note either.

The Oak tree outside my office window is now bleaching off this years growth. I suspect its a 120 year old tree so not one I’d expect to struggle...


Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
Crepuscular Ray
08 July 2026 07:18:31

Apologies for going off topic here but whilst on the subject of the NW forum, I've just come across something which might interest Jerry from the south of Edinburgh.

Here on TWO, I always refer to him just as Jerry even though his actual username on here is "Crepuscular Ray". Armed with that information, I then checked out the NW forum, it turns out that there is a member of that forum with the username of "Crepuscular Ray", but that member is not our Jerry from the south of Edinburgh.

It turns out that the member in question is actually a women who is located somewhere in Wales, and who regularly posts on the Welsh regional section of that forum.

I obviously don't know whether or not Jerry is a member of the NW forum although regardless of whether he is or not, there are a handful of members over there from here in Edinburgh who mainly post in the Scottish section of that forum.

If we assume that Jerry isn't a member of the NW forum though, the username which he chose for there would need to different from his username here on TWO as a result of the above mentioned woman fromWales having already taken that username over there.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

Hi John, no it's not me on the NW Forum 🙂

Same username as me? I should be flattered i suppose 😁


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Rob K
08 July 2026 14:06:20
Proper drought here now. 15 days with zero measurable rain at Odiham, and just 1.6mm in the last 27 days.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Gandalf The White
08 July 2026 14:50:38
We had an email from Cambridge Water yesterday asking customers not to use hoses or sprinklers and even not to water flowers and vegetables. They cited unprecedented demand.   I’m afraid I’m not going to watch our vegetables shrivel up and die.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



bowser
08 July 2026 15:05:01
Will see how this changes after a few weeks of settled weather: https://beta.sepa.scot/water-scarcity/previous-reports/02-july-2026/.

On the plus side, i think the farmers around here will do well, assuming nothing untoward happens come August/September. We've had decent amounts of rain interspersed with decent sunshine in May/June which has been great for silage and this sunny spell will help bring everything else on. 

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
08 July 2026 16:17:58

We had an email from Cambridge Water yesterday asking customers not to use hoses or sprinklers and even not to water flowers and vegetables. They cited unprecedented demand.   I’m afraid I’m not going to watch our vegetables shrivel up and die.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

I assume you can still hand-cart water in cans to water flowers and veg. Otherwise, perhaps someone's been looking at next winter rainfall total probabilities and is beginning to panic. We can't say we weren't warned about lack of water. Yet we've done little to address the issues.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Rob K
08 July 2026 17:10:17

I assume you can still hand-cart water in cans to water flowers and veg. Otherwise, perhaps someone's been looking at next winter rainfall total probabilities and is beginning to panic. We can't say we weren't warned about lack of water. Yet we've done little to address the issues.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

It is ridiculous that Britain of all places should be short of water. Too much money going to shareholders and not enough invested in infrastructure and fixing leaks.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

johncs2016
10 July 2026 07:29:06
SEPA have just released this week's water scarcity report (dated Thursday 9 July 2026) which can be viewed here .

Rainfall totals have continued to be fairly high in the west of Scotland over the past week, but remain very low in the east with no signs of any significant rainfall in the latest model output as far as I can see.

This means that in the east of Scotland in particular, the situation  does not look good at the moment and as a result, one area on the Moray Firth has had its status upgraded all the way to significant water scarcity status which is the highest level which you can get to with that. We were warned last week that this would happen if there was no significant rainfall in that rainfall, and that is indeed what has now ended up happening. As a result, restrictions on water extraction have now been imposed in the River Lossie catchment area where that significant water scarcity status has come into effect.

Meanwhile, East Lothian and one other area in the Moray Firth area remains at moderate water scarcity status. Most of the east of Scotland including Edinburgh and the Borders remains at alert level and there is one area within which have had its status upgraded from early warning status to alert status.

In addition to that, two areas within the Tayside region have had their status upgraded from normal status to early warning status.This means that there are four areas altogether in central northern Scotland which is at early warning status. The rest of Scotland which has not been mentioned so far is still at normal level.

River levels are actually very high in the west of Scotland just now, but remain very low in the east with the River Lossie experiencing its lowest river levels since 2003.

Finally, groundwater levels are very low in central Fife in particular and are low to very low across the east of Scotland more generally. Across the rest of Scotland though, the groundwater levels are at or above average at the moment.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Rob K
11 July 2026 17:07:17
Now three weeks since the last rain and the ponds on the common have totally dried up. Amazing that there was flash flooding at the start of June, and now there's barely a drop of moisture to be seen.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Bertwhistle
12 July 2026 18:24:21
Am really sodded off. We have a hosepipe ban and have invested in two huge watering cans, which we fill from our water butt.

I have radial nerve palsy and struggle with this but as we've always been big wildlife planters I have to keep things watered.

Over the fence in the new-ish affordable housing they are happily filling their large paddling pool and watering their not-new lawn with a hose. 

The Itchen is registered as normal flow still so I'm not sure who I'm more peeved with- the me-me-mes or Southern water.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
13 July 2026 06:10:30
The last rain here fell on the 20th June with 2mm. And it was dry before that, with the last proper rain at 24mm on the 2nd June.

The recent desiccating winds have made vegetation look noticeably parched. Leaf fall is visible on unwatered land. I water my garden because I don't want to order a skip.

Water butts, IMO, are fine, but you need decent-sized ones; otherwise, you'll soon run out of water. The little ones are a near waste of time unless you have a balcony garden. Looking at the radar just now, Brittany looks interesting, but based on experience, that's where most of the rain will stay I fear for now.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

johncs2016
15 July 2026 08:20:42
As I write, today is St. Swithin's Day. According to the legend which goes along with that, if it rains on Swithin's Day, it will then rain for another 40 days but that same legend also says that if doesn't rain on St. Swithin's Day, it then won't rain for another 40 days after that.

We all know that there is no actual scientific basis behind that and that this is something which always has no chance whatsoever of actually ever being observed in practice. However, no rain is expected to fall anywhere today and given that we are currently in a drought situation in many areas with hosepipe bans having already been introduced in a number of areas, this actually makes everything very interesting on this occasion on that regard.

Long spells of constantly dry weather here in the UK are not usually expected to happen all that often but in the south of England in particular, that has in the past, led to the odd month without any recorded rainfall whatsoever in a few locations. Looking at the latest model output, some places might get some thunderstorms at times and even get some locally high rainfall totals with that but more generally, there aren't any signs of any significant rainfall on the horizon.

As a result, there is the chance that some areas might have quite a long wait yet to come before they eventually see their next recorded rainfall. Whilst actually seeing that St. Swithin's Day legend being honored continues to be very unlikely even with that, the fact that locations can potentially go for an entire month or so without any recorded rainfall even here in the UK means that there could actually be the outside chance of the St. Swithin's Day legend being honored this time in the odd location, or at least a few locations coming very close to seeing that happen.

That is clearly something which I don't want to see happening because the impacts from what has happened so far are already bad enough as it is, and will only get even worse as that continues but it will be interesting anyway to see whether or not, there does actually end up being any locations where the St. Swithin's Day legend for this year is either honored, or gets very close to being honored. However that pans out though, it will still be important to keep in mind that if that does indeed end up being the case, it will have been the current pattern itself and the various drivers being that which will likely to have caused that, with St. Swithin's Day playing no actual part in that but this doesn't in my books prevent that from being interesting anyway.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

johncs2016
16 July 2026 20:45:05
SEPA have just released this week's water scarcity report which can be viewed here .

Very low levels of rainfall continue to be a major concern across the east of Scotland in particular but in spite of that, the one area which was upgraded all the way up to significant water scarcity status last week has now been downgraded to alert status which means that the water extraction restrictions which were imposed there as a result have also been lifted.

For now, Edinburgh is still clinging onto alert status for water scarcity but a number of its surrounding areas have now had their status upgraded from alert status to moderate water scarcity status. These areas include the Borders, Fife, parts of Central Scotland, Fife (including the city of Dunfermline), Tayside (including the cities of Perth and Dundee) and also parts of Aberdeenshire.

In addition to Edinburgh, there are 4 areas in NE Scotland including the city of Aberdeen which is currently at alert status. Furthermore, a number of areas have been had their status upgraded from normal status to early warning status. These areas now extend all the way into SW Scotland and include the city of Glasgow. They also extend further north and include the city of Inverness.

All of the rest of Scotland which has not been mentioned here is still at normal status as regards to water scarcity. Some parts of the north and west of Scotland have still done fairly well for rainfall just lately and the river levels in the west are still high to very high, but they remain low to very low with the River Tween catchment area in the Borders having the biggest impact of that.

Groundwater levels are very low in central Fife and low to very low in the east of Scotland more generally, but at or above normal elsewhere.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

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