The Weather Outlook

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picturesareme
06 February 2026 13:11:37

As many say, the weather balances out over the year. Relentless days of rain and very little sun, give me long periods of dry warm and sunny weather any day 😜👍

Ipswich Town's Championship fixture against Portsmouth has been postponed for the second time in just weeks, this time due to a waterlogged pitch at Fratton Park… says it all 🤬

Originally Posted by: TheJudge 

Not really surprised given just how much rain has fallen.

A month and 5.5 days into the new year and we have already seen over 200mm of rain. That's more than a quarter of our annual rainfall!! Locally some will have seen around a 3rd of their annual rainfall in the last month.

MRazzell
06 February 2026 13:35:47

As many say, the weather balances out over the year. Relentless days of rain and very little sun, give me long periods of dry warm and sunny weather any day 😜👍

Ipswich Town's Championship fixture against Portsmouth has been postponed for the second time in just weeks, this time due to a waterlogged pitch at Fratton Park… says it all 🤬

Originally Posted by: TheJudge 

Well, we're certainly getting our annual totals, and then some, but its hardly balanced! 


Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
TheJudge
06 February 2026 14:25:54

Well, we're certainly getting our annual totals, and then some, but its hardly balanced! 

Originally Posted by: MRazzell 

Well fingers crossed 🤞a good summer may balance it out in your area. 


Barby 551 ft above sea level
johncs2016
12 May 2026 16:25:49
As a lot of you are complaining about a lack of rainfall in your area at the moment, I thought that I might as well resurrect this old thread which had its last post in it as recently as February of this year and which could now be used for such a discussion.

At that time, much of the UK was experiencing a very wet winter including much of NE Scotland as a result of persistent SE winds, especially during February. Here in the SE of Scotland and especially here in Edinburgh where we were much more sheltered from those winds, it was a much drier picture and so, the winter of 2025/26 was drier than average here. The meant that last year's very large rainfall deficit never even came close to being completely made up and the drier than average winter meant that we also then started to build up a deficit for this year as well, albeit not as big as last year's deficit at that same stage.

The first half of this spring was slightly wetter than average here at a time when other parts of the UK were already becoming much drier but this was a time when we were approaching what would normally be our driest period of the year on average anyway and since our rainfall totals were only slightly above average during this period, that did virtually nothing in terms of making up the overall rainfall deficit.

In addition to that, it has now dried up yet again, resulting in April being drier than average after looking for a long time as though it was going to be slightly wetter than average. So far this month, we've had a little bit of rain and it's not been as dry here as it has been in some parts of the UK. However, this month is still running quite a bit drier than average once again. Everything is becoming rock solid once again with the ongoing lack of rainfall so even here, we could really do with some much needed rainfall for the gardens.

With that in mind though (which takes me to the very reason why I have resurrected this thread), SEPA have now started their weekly water scarcity reports once again. The first such report was issued last Friday (8 May 2026) and can be viewed here . It is now likely that these reports will now be issued once a week at least until the end of the summer, and I will continue to summarise them here as I find out about them.

Since the situation isn't yet as bad as it was at this time last year, most of Scotland according to this week's report is still at normal status as regards water scarcity, but there are some areas which have already been raised to Early Warning status for that. Given what I have said above, it should come as no surprise that SE Scotland is one such area with this area including all of the Lothians (including Edinburgh) and the Borders.

However, there are some parts of the west coast are also at Early Warning status and despite the exceptionally wet winter in NE Scotland, parts of NE Scotland along with the east and north of Scotland are also at Early Warning status for water scarcity. So far, there isn't a single area which is at alert status or higher but unless we start to get some much needed rain very soon, that situation is only going to deteriorate over time with those higher levels of water scarcity status being achieved before too long.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Retron
12 May 2026 16:53:36
9.8mm of rain down here so far this month, compared with 2.0mm for the whole of April and 14.8mm for all of March. 91-20 averages for my nearest official station, Brogdale, are 16.5mm at this point in May, 44.7mm in April and 39.2mm in March. By my reckoning the deficit for spring so far is around 113mm... that's a heck of a lot to make up, and would require an absolute drenching in summer to balance things out. I daresay we won't get that!
Leysdown, north Kent
Devonian
12 May 2026 17:39:15

9.8mm of rain down here so far this month, compared with 2.0mm for the whole of April and 14.8mm for all of March. 91-20 averages for my nearest official station, Brogdale, are 16.5mm at this point in May, 44.7mm in April and 39.2mm in March. By my reckoning the deficit for spring so far is around 113mm... that's a heck of a lot to make up, and would require an absolute drenching in summer to balance things out. I daresay we won't get that!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Yes, many of the public just don't seem to get that a rainfall deficit is cumulative.

fairweather
12 May 2026 21:47:02
Just 6.2mm here since March 28th ! 3.7mm in May so far. Alex Deakin on Deep Dive on the Met Office site seems to be certain we will get heavy downpours throughout the next two days right down the Middle and Eastern side of the Country. Showed here right in the firing line but that has been a familiar story with their forecasts last few years and as it is in the form of showers which usually skirt here I won't hold my breath.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
13 May 2026 15:18:55

9.8mm of rain down here so far this month, compared with 2.0mm for the whole of April and 14.8mm for all of March. 91-20 averages for my nearest official station, Brogdale, are 16.5mm at this point in May, 44.7mm in April and 39.2mm in March. By my reckoning the deficit for spring so far is around 113mm... that's a heck of a lot to make up, and would require an absolute drenching in summer to balance things out. I daresay we won't get that!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Oh we will. Just up here, that's all.


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

fairweather
13 May 2026 17:52:05
Looks like you might have done quite well today Darren? My gardening friend just 5 miles south of me lined up better and got 5.6mm to my 2.8mm which is a lot and if we get a few more showers today could be the most in a day for a couple of months.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Retron
13 May 2026 18:16:04

Looks like you might have done quite well today Darren? My gardening friend just 5 miles south of me lined up better and got 5.6mm to my 2.8mm which is a lot and if we get a few more showers today could be the most in a day for a couple of months.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

3.8mm today, with a peak rate of 43mm/hour around 6PM. I'll take that with open arms, even though it's not exactly what you'd call a deluge!


Leysdown, north Kent
tierradelfuego
13 May 2026 19:06:51
2.4mm today here. Just taking a look at the aquifer levels on the EA website we are finally into the normal range for the last 2 out of 5 locally. Finally, therefore, we have no groundwater flood alerts in the area. The Lambourn at 1.57m on the local gauge is still about 25cm above summer levels so will interesting to see how quickly it falls now.
Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

johncs2016
14 May 2026 20:09:34
This week's water scarcity report from SEPA dated Thursday 14 May 2026 has just been released, and can viewed here .

The last couple of days has been quite wet here in Edinburgh but that rain has been largely showery in nature which means that it has been very localised in terms of its impacts, and the rest of the last week has been largely dry here. That in turn has led to a slight overall deterioration in the water scarcity situation since this time last week.

Here in Edinburgh and down in the Borders, the status remains unchanged at Early Warning status but a number of other areas have also been upgraded from normal status to Early Warning status including Fife, Aberdeen and much of Aberdeenshire, the rest of the Central Belt, the Orkney Islands and even into SW Scotland.

In addition to that, the far east of Aberdeenshire has even had it status upgraded from Early Warning status to Alert status for water scarcity.

At this stage, the situation is still not as bad as it was at this time last year but river levels are already quite low in a number of areas, especially in the north and east of Scotland with groundwater levels running low across parts of Fife and Tayside.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

fairweather
19 May 2026 20:17:19
No change here. 2.8mm for the last 24 hrs. 10.7mm so far in May making it the wettest month of the last three.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
johncs2016
21 May 2026 14:57:20
This week's water scarcity report has just been released by SEPA and can be viewed here .

During the past week, we have had  some rain but as has been the case for quite a while now, the vast majority of that rainfall has been showery in nature and therefore, very localised.

As a result, there are no real changes from last week with river and groundwater levels running normal in some areas, but low to very low in others.

The extreme east of Aberdeenshire continues to remain at alert level for water scarcity with quite a number of other areas having their status upgraded from normal status to early warning status.

This means that the vast majority of Scotland including Edinburgh and the Borders is now at early warning status for water status with only a small part of the west of Scotland in addition to the Shetland Islands remaining at normal status.

I would imagine though, that SEPA have taken a more cautious approach here given the latest forecasts of upcoming warmer, drier and possibly sunnier weather. If that forecast comes up, this may well cause further issues in the next week or so with many areas seeing their water scarcity status being upgraded as a result.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

fairweather
21 May 2026 20:11:39
Went for a walk in one of my nearby Nature Reserves this morning in the Essex Marshes and reedbeds. This is one of  the footpaths before the upcoming heatwave:-

UserPostedImage


S.Essex, 42m ASL
johncs2016
28 May 2026 18:00:43
From a water scarcity perspective, the past week has not been a good one.

It has been consistently sunny and until a few days ago, it was also quite hot here. More importantly though, it has also been consistently dry with a couple of grass fires breaking out on Arthur's Seat in the past few days as a result. This has to be taken very serious indeed, because this is something which is only going to get worse over time as long as these conditions continue and with that, it is surely only going to be a matter of time before there is an increasing number of casualties from that, with that including an increasing number of fatalities as well. Luckily, that hasn't happened so far, but I don't think that we will continue to be lucky in that regard indefinitely.

With that in mind, SEPA have released this week's water scarcity report (which can be viewed here ) and given what I have just said above, you would not expect that to make for very good reading as a result. Luckily, there are still some areas at normal status in the west of Scotland and in the Shetland Islands, but one area in the west of Scotland has had its status upgraded from normal status to early warning status.

However, the biggest change here comes from the fact that quite a number of areas have now had their status upgraded from early warning status to alert status including Fife, East Lothian, a much larger part of Aberdeenshire and even a small part of Central Scotland. So far, Edinburgh and the Borders are still clinging on to their early warning status for now but as long as these conditions persist, that is unlikely to be the case for very long.

Not surprising, there has been no areas which have had their status downgraded this week. As long as these conditions continue, this situation will only get worse over time with it then being only a matter of time before we start to see some areas having their status upgraded all the way up to moderate or possibly even significant water scarcity status.

The rivers are running quite low now and if these conditions don't improve soon, these levels are only going to get lower along with groundwater levels which are actually still normal in a number of areas at the moment.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

fairweather
02 June 2026 23:12:33
At last! The drought has broken in one day today. 19.7 mm, 5mm more in a day than the entire rainfall for April and May.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
MRazzell
03 June 2026 08:55:25

At last! The drought has broken in one day today. 19.7 mm, 5mm more in a day than the entire rainfall for April and May.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Yes, a decent amount of rainfall over the last 36 hours but we really need 7 days of this to make any marked difference heading into summer.

Thankfully the rest of the week is looking promising with some more fronts and showery rain on the forecast.

If it comes to fruition I’d be happy to see things starting to settle down from the 11th as the models are suggesting this morning. 


Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
Devonian
03 June 2026 09:01:52

Yes, a decent amount of rainfall over the last 36 hours but we really need 7 days of this to make any marked difference heading into summer.

Thankfully the rest of the week is looking promising with some more fronts and showery rain on the forecast.

If it comes to fruition I’d be happy to see things starting to settle down from the 11th as the models are suggesting this morning. 

Originally Posted by: MRazzell 

Only 15mm here so far. We need ten times as much as that but something less than 15mm more is much more likely.

MRazzell
03 June 2026 09:52:55

Only 15mm here so far. We need ten times as much as that but something less than 15mm more is much more likely.

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

Yes, it would have been nice in March & April when we really needed it. Another year where we've been robbed of a spring with blossoms withering on the trees and gardens taking on that midsummer look already. 


Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
fairweather
03 June 2026 12:34:29

Yes, it would have been nice in March & April when we really needed it. Another year where we've been robbed of a spring with blossoms withering on the trees and gardens taking on that midsummer look already. 

Originally Posted by: MRazzell 

I'm just grateful to rid everywhere of the blowing dust. Another 2.5mm this morning. Maybe even the cracks in the lawn will start to shrink.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
johncs2016
04 June 2026 17:18:48
For those of use who are generally looking for a decent summer (i.e. one which is warmer, drier and sunnier than average overall) which would typically be the vast majority of us, this summer hasn't exactly got off to a very good start.

What is bad news for some of us though, is often good news for others and it just so happens that the relatively wet start to this summer which we are experiencing has brought about some much needed rainfall in many areas which has helped quite a lot as regards to the overall water scarcity situation.

With that in mind, SEPA have just released this week's water scarcity report which is the first such report of this summer, and which can be viewed here . The result of this week's rainfall is that unlike last week, not a single area has had its water scarcity status upgraded and indeed, quite a number of areas have now had their status downgraded from early warning status back to normal.

This means that the whole of the NW quarter of Scotland including the Northern Isles but with the exception of the Outer Hebrides has now completely returned to normal as far as water scarcity is concerned.

However, the main focus of this recovery continues to be in the west of Scotland with parts of SE Scotland still struggling to get any meaningful amounts of rainfall. As a result, the water scarcity situation in the rest of Scotland remains unchanged from last week and this means that all of those areas which were at alert level this week, are still at alert level this week with Edinburgh and the Borders remaining at early warning status.

River levels are generally normal across much of the country, but remain low to very low in many areas. If this week's recovery in the west continues and becomes more widespread across Scotland though, that will hopefully result in more areas having their status downgraded and possible even returning to normal as a result.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

fairweather
04 June 2026 18:15:08
Great day here today. A couple of decent downpours the second producing 6mm in 5 min - more than the entire amount for all of April! A small thunder storm as well, at the same time. Now a magnificent 32 mm since Tuesday. Water butts overflowing. 😊
S.Essex, 42m ASL
speckledjim
08 June 2026 07:57:38
Our reservoir levels are at 87% (end of May) so pretty much average. It was 63% last year. 

No drought here and I'm sure that is replicated in most parts of the country.


Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

johncs2016
08 June 2026 08:36:12

Our reservoir levels are at 87% (end of May) so pretty much average. It was 63% last year. 

No drought here and I'm sure that is replicated in most parts of the country.

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

No actual drought here. The actual definition of a drought is determined by a certain consecutive number of dry days. A day which is completely dry obviously cannot be an official rain day but the number of rain days here is actually running above average for this year with Edinburgh Gogarbank having already had just over a half of its 1991-2020 annual average number of rain days during this year so far, with this month also running above average on that front.

Since a rain day is obviously not a dry day, the fact that the number of rain days during this month is running above average  is enough in itself to show that there is no drought here just now (longer periods of course, can contain drier spells and even drought periods within them, even if the number of rain days is above average during such a period).

In terms of the actual rainfall amounts though, we are still running at a deficit for this month even with this latest unsettled spell, and we are also running at a deficit for the year as well because although we will be halfway through the year at the end of this month, Edinburgh Gogarbank has only had just over a third of its 1991-2020 annual average rainfall during this year so far.

That is happening because although we're seeing plenty of days when it's raining at some point in that day at least, the amount of rain which we are actually getting with that is consistently amounting to only very small amounts. The deficit which has resulted from this isn't as big as last year's deficit, but I would imagine that this is bound to at least some impacts as long as that continues.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

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