The Weather Outlook

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Bertwhistle
06 July 2026 15:27:36

Most of the GEFS 06z break things down after day 10, though we often see high pressure holding on better than forecast, so a long way to go.  But by then, most of us would want some cooler wetter weather, school holidays or not

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Depends what you mean by 'break things down'. 850s stay above or close to 10 so warmer than average; rainfall spikes still few in relation to number of models.

Not the continuation of a heatwave but warmer and drier than average clearly implied.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Brian Gaze
06 July 2026 15:42:43
Interesting update from the BBC.

Amber heat-health alerts issued as UK could see 10 consecutive days of temperatures over 30C

Temperatures in the United Kingdom could exceed 30C (86F) for up to 10 consecutive days as the third heatwave of the year gets underway.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cly77zjey40o 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Rob K
06 July 2026 17:24:10
Interesting that article says "From the middle of the week, the heat is forecast to intensify with temperatures of up to 34C (93F) for some" but the max even today was 34.0C at Teddington according to a Met Office tweet just a few mins ago. Just 0.3C shy of the 1976 date record, and on a breezy and rather cloudy day!

Also the seventh 34C+ day of the year so far, which is level with 1976's total.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Jiries
06 July 2026 17:43:45

Interesting that article says "From the middle of the week, the heat is forecast to intensify with temperatures of up to 34C (93F) for some" but the max even today was 34.0C at Teddington according to a Met Office tweet just a few mins ago. Just 0.3C shy of the 1976 date record, and on a breezy and rather cloudy day!

Also the seventh 34C+ day of the year so far, which is level with 1976's total.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Mine was 31.2C despite lack of sunshine.  Any chance for those clouds to sod off as it been hanging around since Friday for no reason.  Don't like this cloudy heatwave and boring for me, can't get actual genuine heat and real sunshine.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
06 July 2026 19:06:05
I said a few days ago that the pattern had a nice 1995 feel to it. I was thinking August 95 at the time, but the currently modelled heatwave is almost a carbon copy of the pattern and eventual retrogression of the 23-30th June heatwave that kicked off that summer. 

Look at the archives, particularly from about the 25th onwards.

https://www.wetter-zentrale.de/reanalysis.php?uur=1800&var=2&nmaps=24&map=1&model=cfsr&jaar=1995&maand=06&dag=24 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
The Beast from the East
06 July 2026 19:13:18

I said a few days ago that the pattern had a nice 1995 feel to it. I was thinking August 95 at the time, but the currently modelled heatwave is almost a carbon copy of the pattern and eventual retrogression of the 23-30th June heatwave that kicked off that summer. 

Look at the archives, particularly from about the 25th onwards.

https://www.wetter-zentrale.de/reanalysis.php?uur=1800&var=2&nmaps=24&map=1&model=cfsr&jaar=1995&maand=06&dag=24 

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Good chance to see how much background warming there has been in 31 years.  When that easterly kicks in, one would assume it would feel fresh at night.  I dont recall many oppressive nights in 95.  Warm to hot days, but tolerable sleeping.  Lets see if the same happens 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Rob K
06 July 2026 22:03:09
Models and apps now firming up on Friday or maybe Saturday to be the last 30C+ day so the heat could be somewhat less prolonged than we thought. Still 6 or 7 days though. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Jiries
06 July 2026 22:19:51

Models and apps now firming up on Friday or maybe Saturday to be the last 30C+ day so the heat could be somewhat less prolonged than we thought. Still 6 or 7 days though. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Notice the apps seem happy to show sunny days after this week cloudy heatwave ends so if this the case then good riddance to this current one and search for proper cloud free heatwave again.  My interest for any heatwave to arrive must come with advance sunny days and warming temperatures as now 4 days lost which last week Thursday started near sunny day then gone wrong from Friday to now.

The Beast from the East
06 July 2026 22:49:25

Models and apps now firming up on Friday or maybe Saturday to be the last 30C+ day so the heat could be somewhat less prolonged than we thought. Still 6 or 7 days though. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Pub run is insane though

UserPostedImage


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Jiries
07 July 2026 08:36:08
Dead quiet so far here and in NW unlike last heatwave I see lot of post with temperatures but now gone quiet so I guess this phantom heatwave is a bust due to aggressive cloud cover, was very overcast this morning now trying to brighten up but still no good after losing lot of sun for 5 days now. 
Ally Pally Snowman
07 July 2026 08:48:08

Dead quiet so far here and in NW unlike last heatwave I see lot of post with temperatures but now gone quiet so I guess this phantom heatwave is a bust due to aggressive cloud cover, was very overcast this morning now trying to brighten up but still no good after losing lot of sun for 5 days now. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Currently in Bournemouth and its been clear blue sky since dawn. Looks like the cloud is breaking up pretty rapidly further north. We should get another seven 30c days at least . Thursday looks like 35c could be reached. Your area should do well enough Jiries. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
07 July 2026 09:27:33

Dead quiet so far here and in NW unlike last heatwave I see lot of post with temperatures but now gone quiet so I guess this phantom heatwave is a bust due to aggressive cloud cover, was very overcast this morning now trying to brighten up but still no good after losing lot of sun for 5 days now. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

I guess because its limited to the south and not as extreme as the previous one. Also model fatigue sets in once you've already seen some special weather, same applies in winter


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
07 July 2026 09:35:36

Dead quiet so far here and in NW unlike last heatwave I see lot of post with temperatures but now gone quiet so I guess this phantom heatwave is a bust due to aggressive cloud cover, was very overcast this morning now trying to brighten up but still no good after losing lot of sun for 5 days now. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

No phantom wave of heat here. 25C though not quite heatwave temps; will soon be in that territory. A beautiful morning with blue skies and light winds.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Rob K
07 July 2026 10:50:26

Models and apps now firming up on Friday or maybe Saturday to be the last 30C+ day so the heat could be somewhat less prolonged than we thought. Still 6 or 7 days though. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Well so much for that idea... GFS 6Z keeps the heat going to the end of next week, with four 36C+ days on the trot.

BTW according to Trevor Harley, there are only 20 days on record where 36C has been reached in the UK, and three of them have been this year. Eight out of 20 have been in the 2020s!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

The Beast from the East
07 July 2026 11:04:19
Control similar to the op, seems now next week is going to see the highest temps, pushing that magic 40 again.  

A few days ago, GFS was showing us under the trough of doom but ECM never bought it


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
07 July 2026 11:06:12
west coast of Ireland is also going to do very well out of this set up.  Dont think they are used to such temperatures


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
07 July 2026 11:08:29
Most of Spain and France under those reds for a long time.  A lot of excess deaths of elderly likely


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

picturesareme
07 July 2026 12:10:56

Most of Spain and France under those reds for a long time.  A lot of excess deaths of elderly likely

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

They're far more adapted to it then we are.

Rob K
07 July 2026 12:21:46
Arpege 6Z going for 37C on Friday now.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Crepuscular Ray
07 July 2026 15:49:09

Dead quiet so far here and in NW unlike last heatwave I see lot of post with temperatures but now gone quiet so I guess this phantom heatwave is a bust due to aggressive cloud cover, was very overcast this morning now trying to brighten up but still no good after losing lot of sun for 5 days now. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Jiries, the heat only affects Birmingham - Nottingham southwards. Some parts of Northern England and Scotland haven't been above 20 C for 10 days

There's hardly been any sun in that period and it drizzles every day! A poor mid-summer!

Hopefully some warmth might move north from tomorrow and the more northern 75% of the UK can join in with the chat


Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Ally Pally Snowman
07 July 2026 17:03:41
32.2c at Wisley is the highest I can see so far today.

18th 30c day


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
07 July 2026 18:17:04
A little patch of 22C sea temperatures off Essex - by far the highest I've seen in UK waters on these charts. Down south at least it's more like you'd expect in early September after a roasting summer... and we've still got several weeks left of summer yet!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/90/24125/sstuktph6.gif 

EDIT: And according to Weatherobs, a couple of ships in the Thames estuary, quite a way away from land, are reporting 26 and 25. Quite remarkable, and shows how much warm air is flowing across the sea.

UserPostedImage


Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
07 July 2026 18:21:39

32.2c at Wisley is the highest I can see so far today.

18th 30c day

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Teddington hit 32.4C. So a little way off the date record, and 0.3C cooler than today was in 1976.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
07 July 2026 18:28:13

A little patch of 22C sea temperatures off Essex - by far the highest I've seen in UK waters on these charts. Down south at least it's more like you'd expect in early September after a roasting summer... and we've still got several weeks left of summer yet!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/90/24125/sstuktph6.gif 

EDIT: And according to Weatherobs, a couple of ships in the Thames estuary, quite a way away from land, are reporting 26 and 25. Quite remarkable, and shows how much warm air is flowing across the sea.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 

I was there on Sunday, Frinton on Sea, you could pretty much go straight in without having to get used to it lol. 

Incredibly warm for so early in Summer. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
07 July 2026 18:39:16
Felt chilly sat outside in the shade at lunch with a stiff breeze.

Temp was supposed to be 21, but felt about 16


Martin

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