Today will help, but will the last 3 days allow another 17+ June?

Edit: confirmed as 17.1°C

17.1 to the 26th

3.0 above the 61 to 90 average

2.6 above the 91 to 20 average

So we're over 17.0C. I'm not surprised.  I know what I'm going for, for July. Seen some forecast models for it. 18.0C plus definitely.  🙂🙂🙂

Having had a look at the daily CET minimum dataset from 1878 onwards, last nights minimum of 20.1C seems to be an all time record for any date not just June

The previous highest CET minimum was 19.6C on 20th July 2016 and no others above 19C

17.3 to the 27th

3.2 above the 61 to 90 average

2.8 above the 91 to 20 average

17.4 to the 28th

3.3 above the 61 to 90 average

2.9 above the 91 to 20 average

So with just 2 days to factor in, to fail to get another 17 would mean today and tomorrow have CET averages in the range 11-12 degrees both days. Highly unlikely if not as impossible as is possible- today might come in about 16 meaning the las day would need t be single figures I think.

1.        1846

2.        1676

3 or 4. 1826

3 or 4. 2026

8.        1976

I know, it's a coincidence, but I found it interesting (A bit like May has 7 8's in the top 17)

Fragments of what I learnt about Binomial Probability suggest that the chances of picking exactly 5 of 8 years to end in 6 is 1 in 2500 approx. (not 1 in 100,000 because you have to allow for the remaining three years not ending in 6 and also that the five can appear in any order; 8C5 * 0.1^5 * 0.9^3) . If you alter the question to ask, what are the chances that the years should end in the same digit, not necessarily a 6, it's one in 250.

You would get 1 in 100,000 if the scenario was, select a digit, then select only  five years at random to match that digit.

It wouldn't be a probability problem if the answer wasn't disputed, but this result is at least supported by AI.

With this two months in a row absolutely catapulting themselves upward during the second half, this might well be the most predictively challenging first half to a year that the competition has ever seen.

Okay, so a slim chance coincidence or a chi² / null hypothesis check?

I reckon 17.2-17.3 and not less than 17.2

Yesterday's mean isn't quite there yet but from max and min yesterday looks like about 16.0, 1.4 below the mean previous, meaning a drop of just below 0.05 mtd

I suspect the 17.4 was up-rounded as it was only 19+ on Sunday so it's likely to drop to 17.3+

To get down to <17.2 from there we'd need at least a .06 drop for 30th meaning a 15.5 day. With a mild night last night I have a hunch we won't get it.

17.3 to the 29th

3.2 above the 61 to 90 average

2.7 above the 91 to 20 average

"The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 11.23, which is 1.76 higher than normal.

To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 1.11 for the remainder of this year."

Bearing in mind the record was set all the way back in 2025 - it's got to be quite likely to go this year! 

Well we are currently 2.43 above average for the year, if we keep this up we could be on for a 12C annual CET!

Jesus... that's above June 2023 and that felt like a far superior month to this one. Considering this month also had a relatively cool first half, it shows just how potent the heat wave last week really was.

As I previously thought Scott, if not a carbon copy of 2025, then oddly similar from March to June.

17.36 to 2 decimals for accuracy in the comp

The annual Jan-Dec record looks odds-on to go this year

The record for any 12 month period is May 2006 to Apr 2007 at 11.66 and we are still quite a way off overtaking this one

July 2025 to June 2026 currently stands at 11.48 and has been slowly increasing over the last few months

It really was a mad time, recording the hottest July then September just a few months apart and then what then seemed like an incredibly warm winter up there with 88-89 (would barely raise an eyebrow now - of course the 1990s to early 2000s had plenty of mild winters but such extreme mildness was in relatively short supply). And then that incredible April to round off the period, before the Rihanna "Umbrella" soundtracked summer monsoon arrived in May and put the brakes on it all

Big congratulations to WindyWillow who came the closest with a 0.43c error margin - a virtual bottle of bubbly is winging its way to you! Without wanting to take anything away from WW win i think that has to be one of the highest winning prediction errors in the competitions history and just highlights how exceptional the month was. Goodness only knows what will happen in July!

Here is the Leader board at the half way point:

June Leaderboard

1 Jemblow            3.73

2 WindyWillow    3.96

3 Wallaw               4.67

4 Sussex snow magnet 4.99

5 Rick M                 5.19

6 GezM                   5.24

7 Caz                      5.29

8 Domma               5.34

9 Redmoons           5.44

10 Grandad            5.47

11 DingleRob         5.79

12 Magda              6.37

13 Ally Pally Snowman 6.69

14 Stormchaser     6.92

15 Lanky                7.01

16 Scillydave          7.03

17 Dickieboy68      7.09

18 Spring Sun Winter Dread 7.11

19 Bolty                  7.3

20 Snowshoe          7.45

21 Hungry Tiger     8.17

22 SaintSnow         8.47

23 Kendalian          8.69