The Weather Outlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2026 13:58:13

ECM 6z temps from tmrw

33c, 35c, 35c, 35c, 29c

So cooler than recently 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

ECM 6z is about 4c too low for NW France today though.

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Matty H
22 June 2026 14:15:55
Currently 31.1c here. Feels fairly comfortable in the house currently 
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Rob K
22 June 2026 14:25:15

ECM 6z is about 4c too low for NW France today though.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

The high-res models do seem to have moderated the output by 1 or 2 degrees today though. eg WRF only has 38 instead of 40-41.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
22 June 2026 14:30:44

The high-res models do seem to have moderated the output by 1 or 2 degrees today though. eg WRF only has 38 instead of 40-41.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Tomorrow will be fascinating we have a range from about 33c to 38c .

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
22 June 2026 14:35:26

Tomorrow will be fascinating we have a range from about 33c to 38c .

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Even MetO app has moderated for tomorrow somewhat. My area was 37C now 34C for tomorrow

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Rob K
22 June 2026 14:35:48
The shower development over the SW and Wales seems to be more than forecast, I wonder if that could have an effect? Certainly it will put a lid on today's highs. UKV forecast some showers but there was nothing on Arpege at all.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Heavy Weather 2013
22 June 2026 14:40:33

Even MetO app has moderated for tomorrow somewhat. My area was 37C now 34C for tomorrow

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

In fact I just checked for London City yesterday evening we had forecast 38C for tomorrow to 34C now. That’s a pretty huge correction. 

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Matty H
22 June 2026 14:41:51

Even MetO app has moderated for tomorrow somewhat. My area was 37C now 34C for tomorrow

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

MetO app for here currently shows

Tuesday - 35c

Wednesday - 39c

Thursday - 39c

 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Retron
22 June 2026 14:42:11

Even MetO app has moderated for tomorrow somewhat. My area was 37C now 34C for tomorrow

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

That'll perhaps be due to a bit more of an easterly component. The forecast for tomorrow here has gone from 38 with SE'lies to 37 with ESE'lies (as the day went on yesterday) to 34 with easterlies this morning to 31 with ENE'lies in this afternoon's forecast. No complaints here, it's dodging a bullet as far as I'm concerned! I think the 34 for Wednesday (with ENE'lies) and 37 on Thursday (with 25mph gusting easterlies) may be overcooked a bit, but we'll see. The sea is about 18C at the moment.

Leysdown, north Kent
Rob K
22 June 2026 15:08:27

Even MetO app has moderated for tomorrow somewhat. My area was 37C now 34C for tomorrow

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

The 40s seem to have disappeared, I've searched a few places that were showing 40s and all are now 39 tops. it will be a case of wait and see though. Subtle changes in wind direction could make all the difference.

BTW the GFS 6Z run has 580dam thickness again, with 581 on the next gridpoint off the Isle of Wight. Will be interesting to see what the highest actual reading is. The 11Z Camborne sounding had 5914-185 = 5729 metres.

Edit: incidentally that sounding also had an 850mb temperature of 21C, which is 3-4C higher (depending which gridpoint you choose) than UKV modelled it, just 9 hours out.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

+1
Matty H
22 June 2026 15:19:23
I wondered if everyone’s phones in the affected Red area would go mental with Severe Alert notifications 

Guess not. 

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

fairweather
22 June 2026 15:25:47

Weather Observations Website I think.

https://wow.metoffice.gov.uk/ 

Not the most user-friendly site, you have to choose the date and time from the menu.

Currently some 33s around Somerset.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Nicely shows the east and west of London split in temperatures. Let's hope it continues.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Rob K
22 June 2026 15:26:32
ARPEGE 12Z extends the heat by a day, now 39, 40, 40, 39 Tuesday to Friday (with the peak of the heat on Friday in the far east of E Anglia). Maybe a degree less hot but an extra day of it.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

fairweather
22 June 2026 15:30:25

The 40s seem to have disappeared, I've searched a few places that were showing 40s and all are now 39 tops. it will be a case of wait and see though. Subtle changes in wind direction could make all the difference.

BTW the GFS 6Z run has 580dam thickness again, with 581 on the next gridpoint off the Isle of Wight. Will be interesting to see what the highest actual reading is. The 11Z Camborne sounding had 5914-185 = 5729 metres.

Edit: incidentally that sounding also had an 850mb temperature of 21C, which is 3-4C higher (depending which gridpoint you choose) than UKV modelled it, just 9 hours out.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

It's the models blizzard algorithm - always fizzles out nearer the event. 😉

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Wobbly_Monk
22 June 2026 15:43:21
33 today, 36 tomorrow then two days of 39 in my neck of the woods according to Met O app (was showing 40 a couple of hours ago), absolutely unprecedented, I can't wait! I was in Sheffield in July 22 and I remember walking out of work to what felt like a blowtorch in the wind. Will feel very different this time around in Wiltshire with the humidity and hoping will be able to keep the house to a bearable temperature without any AC!

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