I will be very surprised if these West Country 40s come off. No other model is that high. It has 35c in that region tomorrow which also seems excessive, but will be a good guide to see if it will be accurate regarding Tuesday to Thursday. 

But more to the point it's currently at 38.3C, at 7.15pm. That's frankly revolting.

But the all time record is 40.3c just up the road from us in Coningsby Lincolnshire.   The first place to officially hit 40c was Gringley on the Hill, Nottinghamshire.  Also just a few miles from us.   We’re currently forecast 37c for Thursday but it keeps going up.  

Which would obliterate the Welsh record of 37.1c set in 2022 in Hawarden.

Before that the record was 35.2c set in 1990.

The 1976 heatwave saw the 5th warmest temperature ever recorded in Wales at 33.6c

That shows how extraordinary the forecast temperatures are. 

UKV has the highest values in the same kind of region: 38C on Wednesday and Thursday in the West Country. 

Arpege does seem out on its own with the 40C craziness. 

We had a few days in Disneyland Paris up to last Tuesday and it was around 26c and plenty hot enough.  We’re so pleased we didn’t go a week later as the forecast is high 30’s and 41c on Tuesday.   

We did the same and ours has had a lot of use but it’s noisy, cumbersome and needs an open window.  So we’ve gone a step further and we’re having air con units fitted.  Unfortunately it can’t be fitted until 16th July, so not in time for this coming heatwave.  It’s just short of £6k but we think worth it for our comfort.  We have solar and batteries as well, so it shouldn’t cost anything to run.  

The East Midlands are more likely to get to 40c than the West Country generally because of the way heat normally comes off the continent.

If other output had 40c in the WC I'd be more inclined to believe Arpege.  But it's isolated, I think 38c will be the high there. Not long to find out. 

ECM was 2 degrees too low for today. 

As for the top temperature this spell I reckon 39.1C. We’ve never had a day with a max of 39C. 

Agree on the projection. I don’t think it’ll hit 40. I think 38.6c

I think statistically that ECM is the most accurate most often. Might be wrong though 

Modelled maxes were 29 from UKM, 30 from UKV and ECM and 31 from GFS, ICON and Arpege.

I’ve predicted 39.9c and my mate 38.6C.

MetOffice raw output for Reading now has TWO 40C days

My location in London City is 3 x 38C

The fact that we may well get three 100f days in a row in June shows just how much the climate is changing.  

30c, 36c, 38c, 37c, 33c, 30c 

I've just opened a dedicated heatwave prediction thread.