The Weather Outlook

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Heavy Weather 2013
19 June 2026 17:30:26
Looking at the GFS ensembles, it’s clear the pack has tightened up for next week, must less scatter and while their is some scope for downgrades, there is also scope for upgrades. 

The mean is approaching 20C for almost 4 days! 


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

The Beast from the East
19 June 2026 17:35:45

Note the frankly brutal amount of time at or above 35C too - it's the "area under the curve" effect (much beloved of A-level maths students studying integration) and it's why adding a degree or two makes things much, much worse - as it pulls that curve upwards such that you endure much more heat for much longer. 

A protip for those who want record-breaking heat for whatever reason, keep an eye out for low dewpoints, i.e. below 10C and preferably below zero. That's what we saw in 2022 and it was part of the reason temperatures climbed as high as they did: dry air heats up more rapidly. There's an extra 35 minutes or so of daylight in southern England compared to the 19th July too, which will aid heating all the more.

(Can't believe I'm writing all this, considering I absolutely detest and loathe heat, but even I recognise a potentially historic event when I see one!)

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Dry heat doesnt feel as bad though. I remember being in the Arizona desert when it was 45c, but it didnt feel like it and was more tolerable than the 90f with humidity in New York 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Bertwhistle
19 June 2026 17:37:10
Compared to 2022 there isn't the desiccation that supports high temperatures, is there?
Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 June 2026 17:39:32

Today's one of those cases where places north of the Downs (like Brogdale and indeed here) are amongst the warmest places in the country. I rue a SW'ly wind! I'm guessing your vineyard is south-facing, so you'd be on the cooler side. 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

It's East facing in the Northern part of the downs: closer to Brogdale than to Ashford. But somewhat further East.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Retron
19 June 2026 17:46:48

Dry heat doesnt feel as bad though. I remember being in the Arizona desert when it was 45c, but it didnt feel like it and was more tolerable than the 90f with humidity in New York 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

It sure doesn't - I walked (with my dad) along a highway one April in Las Vegas, 2 miles into the desert, to go to a pinball arcade. It was 37C, record heat for the time of year (just my luck) and with the breeze it felt more like 20. It was only when the breeze stopped that you realised how hot it actually was! We were lucky we didn't get heatstroke, really.

My comment on the dry heat though was more that it was peculiar to the 2022 heatwave, it's *very* unusual to see that sort of desert-style heat here. The dryness was exaggerated more as we drew closer, the charts a few days earlier were still showing positive dewpoints. 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/52/14242/9_101UKdne9.GIF 

UserPostedImage

I had the same weather station then as I do now, and you can see how even here the heat corresponded with a relatively low dewpoint, you can also see when the sea breeze arrived and brought much cooler but also much more humid air. Not that I was bothered too much, I'd booked into the hotel across the road from the school where I worked, figuring it was worth it to spend a night with proper a/c. Bliss! As the geography teacher in the classroom next to our office said the next day, for one day I'd become a climate refugee...

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/ILEYSDOW1/graph/2022-07-19/2022-07-19/daily 


Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
19 June 2026 17:48:20

It's East facing in the Northern part of the downs: closer to Brogdale than to Ashford. But somewhat further East.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Shows how much I know about vineyards - I'd assumed they were all south-facing! 😁But yes, being in the Downs, rather than on the marshy plain to the north of them, will have knocked off a couple of degrees I'd wager. Being in the lee of the Downs creates a minor foehn effect, and it's that which made Brogdale so special. Heck, even as recently as last summer it was the warmest part of the UK - the highest temperature of the year, 35.8, was recorded at Brogdale.


Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
19 June 2026 18:13:48
Incidentally the UKV was spot on today - here's the chart for this afternoon, and as you can see that foehn effect I mentioned from the Downs shows up very nicely. It had 31 here and the max was... 31!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts3/ukv/ukv_custom/ukv_2026_JUN_19_15_1_2mmaxtemp_50.9_0.4_1.png 

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Leysdown, north Kent
doctormog
19 June 2026 18:17:00

Incidentally the UKV was spot on today - here's the chart for this afternoon, and as you can see that foehn effect I mentioned from the Downs shows up very nicely. It had 31 here and the max was... 31!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts3/ukv/ukv_custom/ukv_2026_JUN_19_15_1_2mmaxtemp_50.9_0.4_1.png 

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Originally Posted by: Retron 

It underestimated the max here by 3°C or more which gives me some hope for coming days.


Heavy Weather 2013
19 June 2026 18:18:26

Incidentally the UKV was spot on today - here's the chart for this afternoon, and as you can see that foehn effect I mentioned from the Downs shows up very nicely. It had 31 here and the max was... 31!

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts3/ukv/ukv_custom/ukv_2026_JUN_19_15_1_2mmaxtemp_50.9_0.4_1.png 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Talking of UKV it has modelled 38C for Wednesday. 

With so many of the models showing extreme temperatures now you have to assume the June record is likely to go. Can anyone confirm how many times we have now recorded 100F?


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Devonian
19 June 2026 18:20:29

Compared to 2022 there isn't the desiccation that supports high temperatures, is there?

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

I saw trees dessicated in the dry heat of August 2022. I dread seeing it again - but I think I will see it again this year. It is the increasing 'medification' of the UK.

Only those ignorant of the changes to the greenhouse effect (and other knock on effects) will enjoy this heatwave. If you have any knowledge of what it portends you should be bloody concerned about the future and doing what you can to raise the alarm. I do, it's been bloody tough and people like me need help.

And the rest of the summer? I fear it's going to be tough going. Water shortages? likely.

Am I  scaremonger or a doomster? No, I'm telling it how it is based on established, proven science. How I wish I am wrong. I could sleep better for a start...

Rob K
19 June 2026 18:58:04

Talking of UKV it has modelled 38C for Wednesday. 

With so many of the models showing extreme temperatures now you have to assume the June record is likely to go. Can anyone confirm how many times we have now recorded 100F?

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Five times, amazingly, and in four separate years: (three of them in the last seven!)

Top 10 hottest days in the UK

Rank Temperature Date Place(s)

1* 40.3 °C (104.5 °F) 19 July 2022 Coningsby, Lincolnshire

2* 38.7 °C (101.7 °F) 25 July 2019 Cambridge, Cambridgeshire

3* 38.5 °C (101.3 °F) 10 August 2003 Faversham, Kent

4 38.2 °C (100.8 °F) 18 July 2022 Pitsford, Northamptonshire

5 37.8 °C (100.0 °F) 31 July 2020 Heathrow, Greater London

6* 37.1 °C (98.8 °F) 3 August 1990 Cheltenham, Gloucestershire

7 36.7 °C (98.1 °F) 1 July 2015 Heathrow, Greater London

8* 36.7 °C (98.1 °F) 9 August 1911 Raunds, Northamptonshire

9 36.6 °C (97.9 °F) 2 August 1990 Worcester, Worcestershire

10 36.5 °C (97.7 °F) 19 July 2006 Wisley, Surrey

Starred entries signify the then-highest temperature recorded up to that date, until surpassed by the next starred date above.

(From Wikipedia)


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
19 June 2026 19:46:10
31.2C at Writtle looks like the highest today.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Heavy Weather 2013
19 June 2026 19:52:11

Five times, amazingly, and in four separate years: (three of them in the last seven!)

Top 10 hottest days in the UK

Rank Temperature Date Place(s)

1* 40.3 °C (104.5 °F) 19 July 2022 Coningsby, Lincolnshire

2* 38.7 °C (101.7 °F) 25 July 2019 Cambridge, Cambridgeshire

3* 38.5 °C (101.3 °F) 10 August 2003 Faversham, Kent

4 38.2 °C (100.8 °F) 18 July 2022 Pitsford, Northamptonshire

5 37.8 °C (100.0 °F) 31 July 2020 Heathrow, Greater London

6* 37.1 °C (98.8 °F) 3 August 1990 Cheltenham, Gloucestershire

7 36.7 °C (98.1 °F) 1 July 2015 Heathrow, Greater London

8* 36.7 °C (98.1 °F) 9 August 1911 Raunds, Northamptonshire

9 36.6 °C (97.9 °F) 2 August 1990 Worcester, Worcestershire

10 36.5 °C (97.7 °F) 19 July 2006 Wisley, Surrey

Starred entries signify the then-highest temperature recorded up to that date, until surpassed by the next starred date above.

(From Wikipedia)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Thanks so much for that Rob. Really useful to see that. The run we’ve had since 2019 is astonishing. What’s remarkable is 2018 was also a great summer. As others have commented a switch has certainly occurred in the last 8 years. 


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

fairweather
19 June 2026 22:42:05

I saw trees dessicated in the dry heat of August 2022. I dread seeing it again - but I think I will see it again this year. It is the increasing 'medification' of the UK.

Only those ignorant of the changes to the greenhouse effect (and other knock on effects) will enjoy this heatwave. If you have any knowledge of what it portends you should be bloody concerned about the future and doing what you can to raise the alarm. I do, it's been bloody tough and people like me need help.

And the rest of the summer? I fear it's going to be tough going. Water shortages? likely.

Am I  scaremonger or a doomster? No, I'm telling it how it is based on established, proven science. How I wish I am wrong. I could sleep better for a start...

Originally Posted by: Devonian 

Don't pop round to my back garden then because my mature 40 foot Silver Birch tree never came into full leaf after the two and half month drought in Spring before it even got hot. The top third still looks dead. 🙄


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
19 June 2026 22:53:43

31.2C at Writtle looks like the highest today.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Told you my weather station was accurate! 31.3C. They were 0.1C out 😄 Writtle is 10 miles North of here.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Jiries
20 June 2026 04:35:26

Talking of UKV it has modelled 38C for Wednesday. 

With so many of the models showing extreme temperatures now you have to assume the June record is likely to go. Can anyone confirm how many times we have now recorded 100F?

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Quite stark difference from the correct models showing high temperatures and sunshine compare to the apps still refusing to accept any models and dish out lower maxes no sun and general rain showers or rain even for London show overcast skies at 35 which won’t happen either as it will be hot and sunny in the high 30s while here  low to mid 30s from Monday onwards and sunny weather.   I hope some place see 100F this month so nice fitting like May at 95F June 100F July 104 Aug 101F and Sept 95.  Then UK have 3 full summer months got 100F plus gained.

saxtemp
20 June 2026 04:58:17
Aperge going for widespread 40c, I couldn't see any 41s on the UK South grid

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

Retron
20 June 2026 05:10:16

Aperge going for widespread 40c, I couldn't see any 41s on the UK South grid

Originally Posted by: saxtemp 

It brings in 26C 850s too, which would be a new record. The dewpoint chart shows the signs of what I was mentioning yesterday too - note the much lower dewpoints in the core of the heat area... reminiscent of July 2022.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/arpege/00_89_ukdp.png 

UserPostedImage


Leysdown, north Kent
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
20 June 2026 05:21:41
What's happening in France this coming week, yet again, looks pretty dangerous. Their only consolation is lower dewpoints, at least inland.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Nick Gilly
20 June 2026 05:53:00
The Met Office confirms Writtle's 31.2C as the highest temperature yesterday. However, looking at the Meteociel maximum temeperature map for yesterday it shows Herne Bay at 31.6C. What gives?
Ally Pally Snowman
20 June 2026 06:01:49

The Met Office confirms Writtle's 31.2C as the highest temperature yesterday. However, looking at the Meteociel maximum temeperature map for yesterday it shows Herne Bay at 31.6C. What gives?

Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 

Herne Bay isn't official. As far as I'm aware. Never seen it quoted before by the Met Office. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
20 June 2026 06:15:55

Aperge going for widespread 40c, I couldn't see any 41s on the UK South grid

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: saxtemp 

Absolutely insane!

UKV has 37c , 36c for Tuesday,  Wednesday 

Other output similar 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
20 June 2026 06:19:19

Aperge going for widespread 40c, I couldn't see any 41s on the UK South grid

UserPostedImage

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: saxtemp 

Look like the East Midlands south getting those 40C and Nuneaton is in the middle of the Midlands so in the 38-39C zone just close to 40C zone further east.   Birmingham and surrounding areas 36-38C.   Is there a weather station in Birmingham I never see any report or listing this city?   

Retron
20 June 2026 06:26:29

Look like the East Midlands south getting those 40C and Nuneaton is in the middle of the Midlands so in the 38-39C zone just close to 40C zone further east.   Birmingham and surrounding areas 36-38C.   Is there a weather station in Birmingham I never see any report or listing this city?   

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

Here's the current reporting network - I see Brogdale is still on it, as an aside, but I do wonder considering it's not reported since March!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-synoptic-and-climate-stations 


Leysdown, north Kent
Devonian
20 June 2026 06:27:56

Don't pop round to my back garden then because my mature 40 foot Silver Birch tree never came into full leaf after the two and half month drought in Spring before it even got hot. The top third still looks dead. 🙄

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

It's terribly sad. A week of super hot and dry air will do much damage (some permanent) to vegetation and our trees.

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