Just did a quick calculation based on MetO forecast maxima and minima for Pershore, Rothamsted and Stonyhurst for the 7 days including today. Bear in mind these are 'likely' maxima and minima, at the time of forecasting, so both could be more extreme than actually happens, but since they're working in different directions for the mean, it may give a fair indication. Of course things could be warmer or cooler generally also. But for the week across the 3 stations I make it 19.4°C, tempered bu a cold 13.5 tomorrow at the Lancashire station.
14.5 x 18 (to yesterday) gives 261, plus (7 x 19.4) i.e 135.8 = 396.8 ÷ 25 =15.9 rounded. The BBC* suggests slightly higher daily figures which gives a CET to 25th of 16.0 rounded. Impressive consistency between them really
With 5 remaining days expected to stay warm overall it will be easy to pass 16 based on these figures but they'd need to average 20 each day to get a CET of 16.7. Doesn't seem likely unless the thermometer goes loopy or heat extends north. I'm punting for 16.3 or 16.4. Others' thoughts?
* Used nearest towns for Roth and St.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
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