The Weather Outlook

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MRazzell
08 June 2026 19:18:17
I find it curious that reservoir levels are used as the baseline deterministic for drought within a given region. The water that comes out of my tap is pumped across a region that has wildly varying levels of rainfall. 

Edit - i should clarify, im referring to comments on this forum rather than official statistics. 


Far north of East Sussex. +150m asl.
tierradelfuego
08 June 2026 19:47:43

The actual definition of a drought is determined by a certain consecutive number of dry days. 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 

Would be really interested to see your source for that, can't find anything on the MET or elsewhere that describes as anything other than a prolonged dry spell?? 


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

Matty H
08 June 2026 19:59:01

Would be really interested to see your source for that, can't find anything on the MET or elsewhere that describes as anything other than a prolonged dry spell?? 

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 

It’s to do with water availability. Nothing to do with a specific number of dry days, 


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

tierradelfuego
08 June 2026 20:02:49

It’s to do with water availability. Nothing to do with a specific number of dry days, 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Yes, I agree, it would be a seriously flawed metric if all it catered for was consecutive dry days.


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

johncs2016
08 June 2026 20:06:07

Would be really interested to see your source for that, can't find anything on the MET or elsewhere that describes as anything other than a prolonged dry spell?? 

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 

Sorry, meant to say that people generally define drought in terms of a certain number of days. I could be completely wrong about that of course, and I will apologize if I am but that is how I have always seen that until now.

How I got that definition is by punching "absolute drought definition UK" into a Google search and when you do that and read the resulting AI output, you will see that an absolute drought is defined by the Met Office as a period of 15 or more consecutive days with a rainfall total of no more than 0.2 mm.

If you have 0.2 mm of rain, that is technically not the same as being completely dry but since that is barely anything at all, that is as good in my books as being completely dry just in the same way that we can say that 0.999 is approximately equal to 1 even though those two numbers aren't exactly equal to each other.

Going by that, I think that it stands to reason that a drought can be defined as a certain consecutive dry days and that is the point which I was trying to make here.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Jiries
11 June 2026 06:09:31

It’s to do with water availability. Nothing to do with a specific number of dry days, 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Uk will never experience African drought as we don’t get months of dry very hot and sunny weather.  I experienced drought some years in Cyprus and know the works of it.  Here never with so much ocean water around us and too much rains like this month so no way to see drought here.  Just lower rivers or lakes levels at times but recover quickly.  Longest dry days was 60 in 2018 but by August onward was very wet throughout.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 June 2026 07:03:37

 Longest dry days was 60 in 2018 but by August onward was very wet throughout.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

But go back to 1893 - 73 days, and not a million miles from FW

The British record for the longest period of drought is held, perhaps surprisingly, by Mile End in east London. An exceptionally dry spring in 1893 led to an amazing 73 consecutive days without rain from Saturday 4th March until Monday 15th May. High pressure was firmly in control across much of northwest Europe, bringing harsh frosts overnight but also some unusually warm days.

https://diamondgeezer.blogspot.com/2018/07/drought.html 


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

Jiries
11 June 2026 08:31:22

But go back to 1893 - 73 days, and not a million miles from FW

The British record for the longest period of drought is held, perhaps surprisingly, by Mile End in east London. An exceptionally dry spring in 1893 led to an amazing 73 consecutive days without rain from Saturday 4th March until Monday 15th May. High pressure was firmly in control across much of northwest Europe, bringing harsh frosts overnight but also some unusually warm days.

https://diamondgeezer.blogspot.com/2018/07/drought.html 

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Always remember well about this place Mile End and their longest dry days, i read about British records including about Tonbridge 38.1C 100.5F record, that year was very dry year too.  I wonder if there a weather station in Mile End or not anymore? We don't hear about Mile End at all anymore.

johncs2016
11 June 2026 15:02:03
The last week has brought quite a number of showers and from the reports on here on the various other threads, it would appear that just about all of you have been some decent rainfall totals from that whereas you will also have seen just how frustrated I have been from not seeing much in the way of rainfall being recorded at the major stations here in Edinburgh despite there being quite a number of heavy showers around at times.

With that in mind, SEPA have just released their latest weekly water scarcity report which can be viewed here .

Indeed, these reports have been quite mixed and what I have mentioned about the situation here in Edinburgh has clearly been taken into consideration as that lack of rainfall which I have just mentioned, has now resulted in our water scarcity status being upgraded from early warning status to alert status. This means that the whole of the Lothian region is now at alert status along with Fife, Clackmannanshire, Tayside and Aberdeenshire.

These reports are always warning that without any recovery in the situation, many areas risk having their status being upgraded with that only getting worse over time as long as that continues, so what has happened here in Edinburgh this week is just one example of that. In addition to that, there is also one area in the west of Scotland which has had its status upgraded from normal to early warning status for exactly that same reason.

However, there has also been a number of areas where has been some recovery as these areas have been getting higher rainfall totals in the past week and this has resulted in a number of areas having their status being downgraded from early warning status back to normal, thus showing that as long we get that rainfall, recovery will take place which will result in more areas returning to normal.

River levels are generally low to very low in the shorter term and although groundwater levels are still normal in most areas for now, there are some low to very low groundwater levels already showing up in the Fife and Angus areas in particular.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

fairweather
11 June 2026 15:18:45

But go back to 1893 - 73 days, and not a million miles from FW

The British record for the longest period of drought is held, perhaps surprisingly, by Mile End in east London. An exceptionally dry spring in 1893 led to an amazing 73 consecutive days without rain from Saturday 4th March until Monday 15th May. High pressure was firmly in control across much of northwest Europe, bringing harsh frosts overnight but also some unusually warm days.

https://diamondgeezer.blogspot.com/2018/07/drought.html 

Originally Posted by: DEW 

Not particularly 😂 As you say about 20 miles directly west of here with the officially UK driest place, Shoeburyness 16 miles ESE.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Matty H
11 June 2026 17:20:41
The now official El Niño could influence the weather during autumn and winter with increased rainfall. On the plus side another mild winter would be likely 
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

johncs2016
11 June 2026 17:58:33

The now official El Niño could influence the weather during autumn and winter with increased rainfall. On the plus side another mild winter would be likely 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

That has been my thinking up until now as well although that was only really just on the back of my mind as we still have this summer to get through before we get to that, hence the reason why I don't normally start thinking about the winter until we get into the preceding autumn before that.

Nevertheless, my thoughts go back to the winter of 2015/16 which was very mild and virtually completely snowless with December 2015 going down as what is still currently our mildest December on record. That was also a particularly wet spell, especially around the period when we were impacted by Storm Denis (that was also the first winter after the Met Office in conjunction with Met Eireann first introduced the current storm naming system).

With that, the worst affected area by flooding was Cumbria in NW England but even here in Scotland, the River Teviot burst its banks in the town of Hawick in the Scottish Borders with quite a lot of money being spent since then in order to bolster the flood defences in that area in response to that particular event.

With this latest El Nino event, I can see another winter like that occurring again and with ongoing climate change, I can also see some more high temperature records being broken at that time once again as a result. At the same time, I can also see that possibly being a very wet period with the risk of further flooding.

All of that if it came off, would be very bad news for cold weather fans who like to see a lot of cold weather and snow in the winter months but at the same time, a really wet period around then might well be what finally renders this thread as being relevant from that time onwards if that hasn't happened by then, so that would be good news in that respect.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Retron
11 June 2026 18:07:37

The now official El Niño could influence the weather during autumn and winter with increased rainfall. On the plus side another mild winter would be likely 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

It also increases the risk of heavy snow if we get lucky with a cold push from the east, battleground type scenario, as there'll be more moisture around. Based on the past couple of decades, though, I'll not get my hopes up!


Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
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12 June 2026 06:49:12
Isn't El Nino supposed to increase the chances of  mild weather  early in winter and a cold period later on?
It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

johncs2016
19 June 2026 07:35:11
I forgot to mention that SEPA released their latest weekly water scarcity report just yesterday although not much has changed from the previous week's report.

There were a few areas which had their status downgraded from early warning status to alert status including the Outer Hebrides but apart from that, everything else is completely unchanged from last week.

Yesterday was our wettest day for quite a while and by quite a considerable amount as well, so that should help a bit when it comes to next week's report but for now, Edinburgh remains at alert status for water scarcity.

Once again, many places further to our west have been doing quite well for rainfall whereas the east has been seeing very little of that rainfall.

River levels are generally reported to be low to very low, especially in central and eastern parts of the country.

Groundwater levels are largely normal for just now though, although some very low groundwater levels are still showing up in parts of Fife and Angus.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

fairweather
20 June 2026 15:45:16
After a decent amount of rain at the start of the month (57mm) which did have an effect we are now getting back to "normal" with no rain for almost 10 days and a hot spell to come. Water butts once again near empty so the garden and wildlife will soon become stressed.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
johncs2016
26 June 2026 03:03:35
Just as I was witnessing a big thunderstorm in this area, I'd realised that I had forgotten to mention that this week's water scarcity report has just been released by SEPA which can be viewed here .

Rainfall has generally been around normal over much of the country since the last report but the hot spell over the past few days has made quite a big impact on this week's report, especially in the east of Scotland.

The result of this is that there aren't any locations which have had their status downgraded this week but a number of areas have had their status upgraded.

Indeed, East Lothian has now has had it status upgraded from alert status to moderate water scarcity status, and is the first area to be classed at that level or higher this year. If dry conditions persist over much of the country as well, that area is unlikely to be the only one to classed at those higher levels.

In addition to that, there were three areas including the Borders which had their status upgraded from early warning status to alert status with Edinburgh remaining at alert status.

Finally, there was also one area which had its status upgraded from normal to early warning status.

River levels continue to be low to very low and although the groundwater levels are largely normal, there continues to be some very low groundwater levels in the Fife and Angus area.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
28 June 2026 06:37:09
Some areas of the country have had heavy rain in the last week but here in central southern England it looks as if we may transition from one baking hot spell to another in a week or so, and not a drop of rain at any point. That's a lot of surface water stress to affect plants and the wildlife dependent on them, though the groundwater levels (on which our mains supply depends) are still close to normal for the time of year, thanks to a wet winter.
It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
28 June 2026 06:50:00
We haven't had any measurable rain recently. The thunder and lightning produce negligible associated rain IMBY.

The BBC have this image of lightning over Weymouth with the caption

Thunderstorms have rocked parts of the UK this week (seen here over Weymouth on Thursday) Pic taken from Portland looking north.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjwgynnwyw2o 

I live to the right of that flash and not surprisingly, had no rain from that solitary cell. But for those who enjoyed it, the rain must have been useful for their gardens, that's if they are keen gardeners. And many are not and might prefer a long dry.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

Charmhills
28 June 2026 08:18:16
Looks like we could be entering another drought with below-average rainfall for the next 10 days or more.
Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

Charmhills
28 June 2026 08:20:40

The now official El Niño could influence the weather during autumn and winter with increased rainfall. On the plus side another mild winter would be likely 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Yeah, a very wet autumn/winter period is a possibility??


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
28 June 2026 09:15:40

Yeah, a very wet autumn/winter period is a possibility??

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

That's what one might hope for but no two years are identical. Without January and February this year being so wet we would by now be in 1976 territory but on steroids. We should as a country have a massive water catchment plan already underway. Without water, we're stuffed.

 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

fairweather
28 June 2026 09:21:33
Following the wet start to June we had another 2 week dry spell. Thankfully, earlier last week we had a storm that gave 15mm (30-40mm nearby) and yesterday early hours 1.5mm which just about refilled the water butt. But with two dry weeks (at least, to come) it is not looking good. It seems that we are in mid to late summer but it's only just begun really!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
28 June 2026 09:37:36

Following the wet start to June we had another 2 week dry spell. Thankfully, earlier last week we had a storm that gave 15mm (30-40mm nearby) and yesterday early hours 1.5mm which just about refilled the water butt. But with two dry weeks (at least, to come) it is not looking good. It seems that we are in mid to late summer but it's only just begun really!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

I hope it's not but it feels that way. Unless you've got lots of butts just one isn't going to last more than a few days unless you only need to water one pot. We missed the storms here, including the mega one that ran through Somerset a few days before the mega hot.


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

johncs2016
02 July 2026 15:07:20
SEPA have just released this week's water scarcity report which can be viewed here .

In the past week, there has been some decent rainfall in many areas which has resulted in a few areas having their water scarcity status downgraded to normal status from early warning status.

These areas have mostly been in the north and west of Scotland whilst some parts of the east of Scotland in particular are still struggling to see all that much in the way of rainfall. The end result of this is that another area to the SE of Inverness has had its water scarcity status upgraded from from alert status to moderate water scarcity status. This means that there are now two areas which are at moderate water scarcity status with the other such area being in East Lothian. In addition to that, one area in the Moray Firth area has it status upgraded from early warning status to alert status.

It turns out that there are now only three areas in Scotland which are at early warning status and a number of areas in the east and SE of Scotland which are at alert status including Edinburgh and the Borders. The rest of Scotland including all of the west and north of Scotland are at normal status, and are therefore completely unaffected by water scarcity for now.

River levels continue to be very low across the east of Scotland but very high in the west with rather mixed conditions in the Central Belt and the Highlands.

Groundwater levels are still largely normal across large parts of the country, but with very low levels still persisting in parts of Fife and Angus.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

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