GFS Op 0z - continuing from FAX - the HP re-asserts itself and appears first as a ridge and later (Wed 27th) as a defined centre always about 1030mb near Wales. It then drifts NE-wards and loses its identity Mon 1st but at this time LP off Ireland keeps the S-ly flow going. That LP moves into S England 1010mb Sat 4th as pressure rises over Scotland (actually centred Faeroes 1025mb).

ECM - generally agrees with GFS but adds in a shallow trough E Britain Fri 29th embedded in higher pressure around it.

AIFS - London, rain today, then dry to Tue 2nd; maxima 30C by Sun 23rd, and again 27C Fri 29th, down to 20C between and after. Edinburgh, rain on and off to Fri 22nd and some around Sun 31st. Maxima 22C this weekend, 24C Fri 29th and Tue 2nd, 15-17C between these maxima.

GEFS - In the S, mean temp rising to 7-8C with good ens support Sun 23rd - Fri 29th, mean then declines to norm in the middle of a big spread of ens members from 8C above to 6C below. Rain today, maybe a little Sun 23rd. Inland showers also possible, In the N, similar temp profile but heat wave ending a couple of days earlier, and small amounts of rain appearing in some runs on various dates esp in west.

GFS Op 0z - develops the cell of HP earlier than FAX (1025mb Thu 21st, Brittany) but moves this cell to the N Sea by Sun as above. It then drifts a little N-wards, allowing a shallow trough to drift eastwards across Britain Thu 28th (even thundery in the S?) before a new HP cell moves into Scotland from the west Sat 30th 1025mb. This manages to hold on until Wed 3rd when the cycle of shallow trough and re-formation of HP from the west is repeated.

ECM - similar to GFS but the HP hangs on over Thu 28th, central pressure down a bit, but no trough to be seen. (T+240 to come)

AIFS - London, maxima rising to 30+C Sun 24th - Tue 26th then falling steadily and down to 17C from Sat 30th dry, a little rain Tue 2nd. Edinburgh, reaching a peak of 25C one day only Mon 25th, then falling to 12-14C from Sat 30th, a little rain now, then dry until Sun 30th - Mon 1st.

GEFS - in England mean and ens reaching 8-10C above norm Sat 23rd - Fri 29th, then as the ens members drop off one by one, the mean is back to norm from Sat 30th but little ens agreement at that stage. A little rain appearing in a few runs from Fri 29th away from the SW. In Scotland, temps rise in stages to 8C above norm Tue 26th but soon drop back to norm Fri 29th, also losing ens agreement at that stage. Small amounts of rain for the next day or two, then also from Fri 29th but in more instances than in England.

A warm (hot in the S) BH and dry for the whole of Britain for once, and a fine half term week to follow.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=202&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

..starting sat/ Sunday 

Be careful - you'll be accused of being London-centric ! 

GFS Op 0z - the HP described in FAX perambulates around Britain, mostly towards the north, until Mon 1st. A slight drop in pressure then puts Britain in a shallow trough, at its greatest extent by Thu 4th, linking LP Iceland 990mb and LP S France 1010mb but by Sat 6th HP is back developing from the SW.

ECM - like GFS though HP is more consistently centred near Scotland with continental LP nibbling at the south coast, with E-lies there.

AIFS - London, maxima rising to 30+C Mon/Tue 25th/26th slowly dropping to low 20s Sat 30th and continuing down from there to 15C Thu 4th, rain Mon 1st and Thu 4th. Edinburgh, peak heat 24C one day only (Mon 25th) otherwise maxima generally in high teens to Sat 30th, then around 15C to Thu 4th. A little rai now, greater amounts  on Mon 1st and Thu 4th, like London.

GEFS - In S & C England, mean and ens agree on temps 8C above norm Sat 23rd - Wed 26th ( a shorter period than shown yesterday), then dropping off in a ragged fashion as one ens member after another returns to norm, the mean temp back to norm Mon 1st. A little rain likely Mon 1st - Thu 4th (from 3rd - 6th in SW). In Scotland and N England, a double peak for a lesser heat wave, 5C above norm Fri 22nd and 7C above norm Mon 24th, dropping back to norm or a little above Thu 27th with poor ens agreement at this stage (the NE returns to norm even more quickly). Trivial amounts of rain in a few runs to Mon 1st, after which quite likely.

A good fine and warm/hot spell for the half term in England - but southerners should be tactful as the forecast is neither so warm nor so long-lasting in the north, even if everywhere is dry for the week.

GFS Op 0z - the HP persists, shifting its axis to one from Iceland to France by Fri 29th, before being dented by LP from Scandinavia bringing in weak NE-lies Sun 31st, and then giving up as LP moves in from the Atlantic 1000mb N Ireland Thu 4th. By Sun 7th standard W-lies are present.

ECM - as GFS to Thu 28th when the HP becomes less defined but although weaker moves a little further east thereby keeping any NE-lies suppressed on Sun 31st; indeed it looks as if more warmth is poised to move into the SW.

AIFS - London, peak maximum on Tue 26th at 32C, dropping to 23C Sun 31st, still dry, and then down to 19C with occasional light rain through to Fri 5th. Edinburgh, mostly 18C and dry (maybe a little rain at first) with higher peaks at 22-23C Mon 25th and Fri 29th, then about 15C with rain through to Fri 5th

GEFS - In the S, 10C above norm to Wed 27th (in the far S to Fri 29th) dropping back to norm Mon 1st by which time ens agreement is breaking up, mean then held to norm. Chances of a little rain from Sun 31st. In the N, a bump of warmth now, then the (modified) heat wave 7C above norm on Mon 25th however soon  but gradually fading and back to norm Sun 31st, More definite chances of rain from Fri 29th but no great amounts. (C Scotland, a shower on 23rd?)

The south will swelter while the north has more bearable but still notably warm weather; and in each case time limited unlike the notorious Canadian heat dome.

Yes GFS has been showing this now for a few days and I see ECM starting to trend that way. Could be a very interesting Summer this.

GFS Op 0z - HP perambulating Britain all the coming week, finally withdrawing S-wards on Fri 29th and cooler W/SW-lies appearing by Tue 2nd. Shallow LP 990mb crossing Scotland Thu 4th and another passing close 980mb Sat 6th keep the W-lies going, but HP never far from S England.

ECM - similar to GFS but the W-lies are better established and earlier, by Sat 30th.

AIFS - London, maxima 30-31C to Thu 28th, then dropping in steps,  23-25C to Wed 3rd, then 19-20C to Sat 6th. A little rain Sat 30th, rather more Wed 3rd. Edinburgh, mostly close to 20C to Tue 2nd (one much warmer day Mon 25th, one rather cooler Wed 27th) then settling at 18C. Rain most significant Wed 3rd, but traces from time to time after Thu 28th.

GEFS - In England, peak heat (8-10C above norm) lasting to Wed 27th, then a gradual decline  of the mean temp to norm by Sat 6th  (a couple of days earlier in the NE) with ens agreement getting worse after the 27th. Small chance of a little rain from Mon 1st onwards esp towards the east. In Scotland,  peak heat about 7C above norm Mon 25th - Fri 29th then a sharp fall of mean temp to norm Sat 30th where it stays with poor ens agreement at this stage. Small amounts of rain quite possible on any day after Mon 1st, earlier in the W.

As pointed out in previous posts, the Euro monsoon takes over in a week's time, albeit in a rather lacklustre form this year.

What really caught my eye enough to try to register again was Arpege now going for 37c! on Tuesday. 

14 C in Edinburgh at the same time 😲

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/may.jpg 

And yes, that's a 16C fall from Tuesday to Wednesday. Assuming the forecast for Wednesday isn't massively ninja-upped (as has happened to Monday and Tuesday), I'll be making the most of it - the only pleasant day of the week.

I can only assume we're seeing something akin to that Canadian heat dome of a few years ago setting up. Let's hope it isn't as destructive as that was!

Hope to hear more from you

GFS Op 0z - as FAX above, HP then subsiding and moving SE-wards by Mon 1st as a local LP 1005mb moves into Brittany from the west. For the next week, a ridge of HP from the SW advances and retreats over the next week to Sat 6th, wind mostly from the west in the north, from the east in the south; even a touch of N-ly at the end before a cell of HP breaks off and sets up in the N Sea 1020mb Tue 9th.

ECM - mainly like GFS but LP on Mon 1st is a flabby area 1000mb Scottish borders.

AIFS - London, maxima 32-33C to Wed 27th, then 26-28C to Sat 30th, then about 20C to Sun 7th. Some rain Sun 30th - Wed 3rd. Edinburgh, maxima rather variable at first, say 20C baseline but higher Mon 25th and Fri 29th, lower Wed 27th; then 15-17C to Sun 7th.  Regular amounts of rain from Sun 31st onwards.

GEFS - In England, mean and ens temps keep the heat going to Sun 31st, 7-10C above norm; then a general slide to norm Wed 3rd, with ens agreement breaking up and control run a cold outlier 5C below norm. Chances of rain from Sun 31st but not certainties, suggestion of storms in the Midland/N England on Wed 27th. In Scotland, similar temp profile but peak heat only 7C above norm and that not reached until Fri 29th; rain predicted by nearly all ens members for the week from Sun 31st, quite heavy at times in NW.

BTW I can’t help find it funny that the subhead of this thread still talks about an easterly…

Technically that still kind of apply as I am in an easterly breeze suppressing the high temperatures here at my end of Kent. 😅 A comfortable 19 C while still enjoying the sunshine. 

GFS Op 0z - follows FAX but W-lies a day later; then a few days under light W-lies before Wed 3rd when a shallow depression crosses Scotland and deepens over Norway with strong N-lies in place for Fri 5th (that'll be a shock!).  The LP persists for several days and the British weather remains cool though as the LP fills and winds veer NW-ly it warms up a little by Tue 9th.

ECM - delays the breakdown as HP remains in place over S England to Mon 1st. When LP takes over (as per GFS) on Wed 3rd it stays near the Faeroes and winds are from a less cool W/NW point.

AIFS - London, maxima drop from 33C Wed 27th to 20C Sun 31st and stay there or a little below to Mon 8th. Some rain Tue 2nd - Thu 4th, traces on other days after Sun 31st. Edinburgh, a last hurrah at 23C today, then mostly around 15C (a little above at first with Thu 28th warmer at 20C, a little below in a week's time with Sat 6th cooler at 10C).

GEFS - A slide from 10C above norm now to mean temp at norm om Wed 3rd and staying there, generally good ens agreement  though op run is cooler and there are 3 or 4 warm outliers. A couple of showery peaks in random places Thu 28th and then frequent chances of rain from Wed 3rd (from Mon 1st in N & W)

For here in Edinburgh though, the Met Office output is a bit warmer than what is shown here from the AIFS output although those predictions of around 27°C for here on Thursday which were showing a few days ago from the Met Office have now been downgraded a bit.

For today, Met Office are going for a maximum of around 25°C for here with the maximum temperatures on each day either reaching or exceeding 20°C at least until next Sunday. Thursday's forecast has now been downgraded to 23°C by the Met Office but on any given day, the temperatures nearly always end up being warmer than what was actually forecast and it's not very often that it actually ends up being cooler than what was forecast.

Taking all of that into consideration, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if I continued to swelter in my flat for some time yet.

Early June:

Bliss! 🥰

Worth bearing in mind that it often turns unsettled in early June, the "European monsoon" as it was colloquially called.