The Weather Outlook

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Stormchaser
01 May 2026 16:45:45
By the numbers I have this provisionally puts the competition host and Windy Willow closest for the month, both just a tenth out.

Cumulatively, at the top, Wallaw edges a bit further ahead of Sussex Snow for a more comfortable lead as the only contestant with a total error still less than 2°C.

Once late penalties are accounted for, Magda and Sussex snow appear to be tied on cumulative error, very closely followed by Gez M.

All contestants have so far beaten using the 1991-2020 average, testament to us having an ability to anticipate highly anomalous months.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

+2
scillydave
08 May 2026 11:01:24

By the numbers I have this provisionally puts the competition host and Windy Willow closest for the month, both just a tenth out.

Cumulatively, at the top, Wallaw edges a bit further ahead of Sussex Snow for a more comfortable lead as the only contestant with a total error still less than 2°C.

Once late penalties are accounted for, Magda and Sussex snow appear to be tied on cumulative error, very closely followed by Gez M.

All contestants have so far beaten using the 1991-2020 average, testament to us having an ability to anticipate highly anomalous months.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

StormChaser my figures are slightly different to your calculations above - do you have a figure for the CET to two decimal places as at the moment i've only got it to one at 10.4c which may account for the slight difference - hopefully i've not made an error somewhere! See the Leaderboard below.

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

scillydave
08 May 2026 11:10:21
Apologies for the late posting - it's been a busy start to the month.

Congratulations to Jemblow with an on the nose prediction this month - a virtual bottle of bubbly is on it's way to you!

Wallaw is still top of the table however Jemblow is snapping at their heels followed by a right tussle for 3rd to joint 6th place - May's leaderboard is going to be interesting!

April Leader board

1   Wallaw                  2.32

2   Jemblow               2.48

3   Magda                  3.12

4   Sussex snow magnet 3.14

5   GezM                    3.14

6   Rick M                  3.24

6   WindyWillow        3.24

7   Caz                        3.44

8   Lanky                    4.06

8   Spring Sun Winter Dread 4.06

9   DingleRob            4.14

10 Redmoons            4.21

11 Domma                4.29

12 Dickieboy68         4.5

13 Ally Pally Snowman 4.54

14 Stormchaser         4.67

15 Scillydave             4.68

16 Bolty                    4.74

17 Grandad              4.82

18 SaintSnow           5.17

19 Snowshoe           5.2

20 Hungry Tiger      5.22

21 Kendalian            5.74

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

+3
lanky
09 May 2026 14:09:18

StormChaser my figures are slightly different to your calculations above - do you have a figure for the CET to two decimal places as at the moment i've only got it to one at 10.4c which may account for the slight difference - hopefully i've not made an error somewhere! See the Leaderboard below.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

it was 10.40 to 2 dec places

Martin

Richmond, Surrey

+2
Stormchaser
12 May 2026 08:39:54

StormChaser my figures are slightly different to your calculations above - do you have a figure for the CET to two decimal places as at the moment i've only got it to one at 10.4c which may account for the slight difference - hopefully i've not made an error somewhere! See the Leaderboard below.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 

Hi Dave, sorry I didn't see this sooner, fortunately lanky spotted it.

Worry not, for my figures are only an estimate that I make out of interest as I like to explore the 'might have been' had a month been slightly warmer or cooler. I've probably overlooked a late entry penalty or two.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

+1
Saint Snow
12 May 2026 09:45:44
Thanks for the update, Dave.

I'm tumbling towards the relegation places! 

I've gone the right way in 3 of the 4 months (the other - Feb - I went almost bang on the full-term average), just not extreme enough

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

scillydave
12 May 2026 20:04:00
It's a funny old season this one - as the prediction spread has been relatively close together it's exacerbated the outlier predictions more I think. I certainly got caught like that early on!
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

scillydave
12 May 2026 20:05:17

Hi Dave, sorry I didn't see this sooner, fortunately lanky spotted it.

Worry not, for my figures are only an estimate that I make out of interest as I like to explore the 'might have been' had a month been slightly warmer or cooler. I've probably overlooked a late entry penalty or two.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Phew! I was beginning to panic a bit 🤣

Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.

Gavin D
17 May 2026 12:22:25
Hadley

10.4 to the 16th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average

0.7c below the 91 to 20 average

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