Graphs give a smoothed version - less informative but can be assimilated more quickly

GFS Op 0z - after the second of those LPs above, winds gradually go back W-ly as HP mid-Atlantic extends its influence, finally with a lobe 1025mb covering Britain Wed 20th. The HP continues to develop in the direction of Britain and by Mon 25th there is a ridge from mid-Atlantic to Norway, SW-lies for northern Scotland, E-lies for S England as a revived Portuguese LP brings warm weather, even looking thundery, from the S

ECM - agrees with GFS to Sun 17th, but then a disturbance develops in the W-lies, shown on the last chart of the 0800 series as 995mb off N Ireland Wed 20th. 0900 series to come. In the end this moves off NE-ward s  and ECM joins GFS with HP across Britain, but the main centre is to the W, not extending as far as Norway, so on Mon 25th it's calmer for Scotland and winds in the S are NE-ly, not E-ly, and not looking at all thundery

AIFS - London, after today, maxima 14-15C to Wed 20th (briefly warm Tue 12th) with some rain w/b Wed 13th; then regaining 20C and dry. Edinburgh, maxima 11-13C to Wed 20th with some rain on most days, heavier later on; then again much warmer to 20C and dry.

GEFS - on first opening this, it showed a remarkable heat wave for the south; on checking back something much more realistic appeared! Mean temp and good ens support dropping to 5C below norm Thu 14th (the S & E getting one warmer day on the 12th), slowly recovering to norm by Thu 21st, small amounts of rain possible from Thu 14th onwards but not certain in the S

GFS Op 0z - The N-ly flow as shown in FAX is finally cut off by a rise of pressure from Scotland to Norway Sun 17th. This persists for the full week without much development, as does lower pressure over France, the most interesting feature being the presence of small cold pools left over from the previous week's Arctic flow (one to be found near Brittany, another in northern N Sea). By Tue 26th, the HP has re-set along an axis from Azores to Norway, with warmer aid advected into the south from the Continent, and for the NW, SW-lies as LP develops mid-Atlantic.

ECM - differs from FAX/GFS after Sun 17th; no rise of pressure, rather the arrival of a shallow LP which starts out from Greenland 995mb and by Wed 20th forms a broad trough across Britain for all except the far SE.  This does however retreat NW-wards to generate a 'normal' situation of LP to the NW, HP to the SE with SW-lies for Britain by Sun 24th.

AIFS - London, maxima rising slowly from about 11C now to 20C Sat 23rd (but briefly 15C on Tue 12th), some rain on most days w/b Wed 13th. Edinburgh, maxima 11-13C to Wed 20th before warming to 17C. Also light rain every day Tue 12th - Sat 22nd.

GEFS - mean temp with good ens support down to 4-5C below norm in the next couple of days, rising slowly to norm Tue 19th and staying there (a couple of warm outliers appearing then). Showery pattern of rain from Thu 14th onwards, perhaps something more general but not heavy around Wed 20th but very little in the far E. 

GFS OP 0z - A further depression 990mb S of Greenland Fri 15th  takes a different course and runs S-wards to W of Ireland Mon 18th with milder S-lies for Britain. It then retreats to mid-Atlantic as a ridge of HP establishes over Britain from the south Wed 20th, persisting to Wed 27th though towards the end of this period it weakens in the NE and that Scandinavian LP brings back N-lies there. 

ECM - similar to GFS up to Wed 20th, though the LP from Greenland takes a detour via NW Scotland Mon 18th before clearing to the Atlantic. [0900 to come covering Thu 21st onwards]

AIFS - London, briefly warm tomorrow, otherwise maxima rise steadily from 12C now to 25C Sat 23rd, then dropping back a little. Small amounts of rain for a week from Wed 13th onwards. Edinburgh, similar but the rise in temp is 10C to 21C, and additional rain Sun 24th.

GEFS - mean temp rising from 6-7C below norm now to norm Mon 18th and staying there or a little above to Wed 27th with good ens agreement. Small amounts of showery-looking rain throughout. A few runs with occasionally heavier rain in the W.

GFS OP 0z - the last LP shown on FAX drops S-wards and hangs around the mid-Atlantic while pressure rises  from the south to a maximum of 1025mb Thu 21st, so for the week beginning Mon 18th there are mild SW-lies for Britain. For the week beginning Mon 25th the HP retires S-wards and LP moves towards Shetland bringing a poorly defined W-ly to Thu 28th.

ECM agrees with GFS to Thu 21st when pressure not only rises but also extends a prominent ridge to N Norway, (ridge absent from GFS), rotating to lie W-E Mon 25th with centre 1040mb Hebrides before retreating to the Atlantic and letting the N-lies back in.

AIFS - London, 16C today, but tomorrow 12C; then maxima rising steadily to 25C Fri 22nd before dropping back 15-17C. A little rain this week, rather more Sat 23rd. Edinburgh, similar trend but rising from 11C tomorrow to 19C Fri 22nd and dropping to 15C; traces of rain on most days until a heavier fall Sat 23rd.

GEFS - mean temp about 4C below norm for the rest of this week with good ens agreement, switching to just above norm from Tue 21st still supported by most ens members but both very warm and very cold outliers appearing. Small peaks of what look like showery rain on most days (very little in the NE), less well defined after Tue 21st, something heavier in the southwest Mon 20th

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

An awful prospect.

Dying grass in May? Crazy. Crops failing in May? Crazy. Countryside and wildlife stressed yet again by summer heat and drought? Only good for flies, ticks, and sunbathers.

We do need some rain but I also want some heat. 

Worse, my May CET guess will suffer terribly!!

Pour that stuff you call beer down there on your grass - it's like water anyway 😉

I'm trusting the models - which show some showers over the next few days down here - and have mowed the lawn (only the third time this spring - the grass isn't growing much). It *was* nice and lush, but there are some yellowy bits appearing now that I've cut it. My neighbours know I usually mow the lawn when I think there's rain on the way...

Last time I did it, a couple of weeks back, the models failed spectacularly (they'd been showing rain but it fizzled before getting here). Showers are inherently riskier, as places either side might get deluged while you get nothing, but it was worth a gamble. The 6z GFS, for example, has 7mm of rain here by Saturday (which would count as a biblical deluge these days), while the MetO has several hours tomorrow with a >95% chance of heavy showers, followed by several hours at an 80% chance of showers on Thursday. 

EDIT: And my gran's version of Old Ron's saying was "Be it dry or be it wet, nature always pays her debt". Those debts are really racking up over the past few years!

I fear these old sayings are not climate change proof, Darren.  We seem to get locked into a pattern for weeks on end now. An extraordinarily wet January and February followed by very little rain in the last 10 weeks, here at least.  From huge puddles and saturated ground to large cracks in the ground in places.

Just cut half our lawns today, interrupted by about half an hour’s rain.

Yes, the old sayings are out of date. But out thinking take some shifting. I bet most people still think dry weather wont last not matter how long its lasted...

Can we have some T-shirt weather please? It’s nearly June FFS. 

It’s not even the mid May yet. Frosts in May were once quite normal - remember the old saying about not casting a clout ‘til May is out.  I chuckle when I see garden centres selling non-hardy plants so early.

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=17&run=0&time=375&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Getting a few 20c + days by this stage is also quite normal, but happened here at least so far. 

GFS Op 0z - less of a pressure rise over Germany, and then for the beginning of next week (Mon/Tue 18th/19th) the mid-Atlantic LP is not far off W Ireland, bringing milder SW-lies which could offer a little rain. Later Thu 21st HP asserts itself 1030mb E England with warmer air in its circulation from the SE. On Sun 24th this HP has moved E-wards allowing an LP 1015 mb to reach Britain from the south; then something of a repeat with a new HP cell from the west Wed 27th followed by LP from Spain Fri 29th with something of a hot plume, maybe even thundery.

ECM - like GF to Sat 23rd (later charts for T +240 hadn't downloaded by 0915 today)

AIFS - forecast chart only showing to Sun 17th today, so nothing more than cool and showery in that time. ECMWF ensembles showing a slow rise of maxima to 20C (London) or 15C (Edinburgh) in the next 10 days.

GEFS - cool (4C below norm) and showery to Wed 20th, then dry (at least in the south; some ens members continue to show rain in the north esp Tue 19th) and a few degrees above norm to Fri 29th with a little rain towards the end of this period; op and control both significantly warmer than the mean. 

I suppose that is the fascination of the weather in this Country - it is so varied often just over a few miles. Bone dry in my bit of the South and hardly any rain since February. January was about average or just above here but nowhere near record levels. Where in the south are you?

😂 ....... and you have to pay £7 a pint for it!

Fixed it for you so that it represents reality more accurately.

Looking at GEFS London there's not much rain shown in the outlook, so the increased temperatures are likely to dry the ground even more. But I agree with being fed up with the second cold Spring that we've had here in the SE. 

I think WM is near Dover