The Weather Outlook

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Devonian
14 April 2026 13:45:47

We've had about 1.5mm so far today and it feels damp. So for many people, conditions like today merely enhance the impression of a wet spring perhaps? The same for March perhaps.

I'd take issue with the term 'wildfires' because we had some fires here in Dorset too, which were certainly not 'wild' as in started by natural means. An arsonist caused these. Maybe the others they mention, bar the Dartmoor ones, began with lightning strikes, though I'd say they were purely arsonic. As are most if not all of these fires in the UK.

Originally Posted by: NMA 

I am continually amazed by what seems to be a fact: most people simply can't tell the difference between 5mm, 15mm and 25mm of rain, to most people it's just rain. So, if it rains a bit they say it's wet. I conclude most people walk about in some sort of daze - barely aware of what is going on around them.

Last week our local forecaster used the term 'inclement' for an April day that was breezy, mild, cloudy and had a few spots of rain. Such appeals to ignorance don't help...

Devonian
14 April 2026 13:52:26

We did actually get 2.5mm from showers yesterday, which is now the total for the month to date.

The response to my email from the Met is laughable given that I specifically referred to the South East corner and coastal Kent.

"Thank you for your email.

We don't have the complete observations for April yet but given what you say it will be worth checking once they are published early next month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/mwr_2026_03_for_print.pdf  "

Scroll down to the rainfall map of the UK.

The map of rainfall on this link he sent does not back that up at all. Even for the UK as a whole I pointed out that it isn't good practice to take a large region of above average rainfall and combine it with one of below average and come up with average rainfall overall!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Roost weather custom rainfall  the custom rainfall option will plot hundreds of rainfall observation for this year.

Select the time period (the longer it is the more like his server will time out at least once) , don't select Scotland and wales (less searching for the server?) set data to 95%? and if the server can't cope keep trying - it usually gets there in the end. The data is fascinating - if you're not in a daze anyway....

johncs2016
15 April 2026 06:11:41
The latest rainfall data for Edinburgh Gogarbank is as follows:

Data For Recent Days

24 hour total up to 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) yesterday morning: 0.6 mm

Total since 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) yesterday morning: 2.8 mm (as at 6:30 am BST (05:30 UTC) this morning on Wednesday 15 April 2026)

Monthly Data

Total for this month so far: 34.6 mm (75.4% of 1991-2020 April average)

Number of rain days during this month: 9 (97.7% of 1991-2020 April average)

Number of dry days during this month: 2

This means that only at least another 11.4 mm of rain now needs to fall between now and the end of this month in order for this month to go down as being wetter than average in terms of the actual rainfall amounts.

In addition to that, this month will go down as being wetter than average in terms of the number of rain days if any more official rain days are recorded between now and the end of this month.

Seasonal Data

Total for this spring so far: 96.6 mm (65.0% of 1991-2020 spring average)

Number of rain days during this spring: 22 (72.7% of 1991-2020 spring average)

Number of dry days during this spring: 15

Annual Data

Total for this year so far: 208.8 mm (26.6% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of rain days during this year: 53 (38.6% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of dry days during this year: 27

Note

This data has been obtained from https://www.ogimet.com  in raw BUFR format, and then converted into a more readable form by my own python script.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

fairweather
15 April 2026 19:11:54
Once again, despite the continued forecast of at least some rain as the various fronts passed through - zilch, zero, not a spit.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
idj20
15 April 2026 21:32:11

Once again, despite the continued forecast of at least some rain as the various fronts passed through - zilch, zero, not a spit.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Similar here, recorded only "trace" amount of rain (less than 0.2 mm) in past 24 hours here at my Folkestone harbour location. I'm holding back on putting down grass seed on my recently dug up lawn until I am seeing significant or regular rainfall in the near future - and there seems to be little of that from where I'm standing (or sitting).


Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
speckledjim
16 April 2026 06:53:14
15mm mtd
Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

johncs2016
16 April 2026 17:15:27
The latest rainfall data for Edinburgh Gogarbank is as follows:

Data For Recent Days

24 hour total up to 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) this morning: 2.4 mm

Total since 10 am BST (09:00 UTC) this morning: 0.0 mm (as at 5:30 pm BST (16:30 UTC) this afternoon on Thursday 16 April 2026)

Monthly Data

Total for this month so far: 37.0 mm (80.7% of 1991-2020 April average)

Number of rain days during this month: 10 (108.6% of 1991-2020 April average)

Number of dry days during this month: 3

This means that at least another 9.0 mm of rain still needs to fall between now and the end of this month in order for this month to go down as being wetter than average in terms of the actual rainfall amounts.

However, more official rain days have now been recorded during this month than the 1991-2020 April average and so regardless of what happens during the rest of this month, this month will now go down as being wetter than average in terms of the number of rain days.

Seasonal Data

Total for this spring so far: 99.0 mm (66.7% of 1991-2020 spring average)

Number of rain days during this spring: 23 (76.0% of 1991-2020 spring average)

Number of dry days during this spring: 16

Annual Data

Total for this year so far: 211.2 mm (26.9% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of rain days during this year: 54 (39.3% of 1991-2020 annual average)

Number of dry days during this year: 28

Note

This data has been obtained from https://www.ogimet.com  in raw BUFR format, and then converted into a more readable form by my own python script.


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

tierradelfuego
16 April 2026 20:15:47
2.8mm from this morning's rain, 8.6mm MTD
Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

speckledjim
18 April 2026 07:59:28
18mm mtd
Thorner, West Yorkshire



Journalism is organised gossip

fairweather
19 April 2026 21:04:37
Been in York for a couple of days. Just a couple of short sharp showers but I see nothing here still. At least Countryfile Weather at least has recognised the issue and showed a chart of low rainfall in the South and S.E. with Shoeburyness at 11% of average.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
21 April 2026 10:22:14
Been looking at my records and the last time we had useful rain i.e. an inch in a day was back in November 2024 when we had 26.4mm. Just 7mm in the last 6 weeks. I can't remember a day in the last two years when it rained all day and I doubt it will now till next winter.!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
21 April 2026 11:42:37
14.5mm so far this month, The last heavy rain here was 48mm 27th January this year. There again it rained, although not nonstop in Jan and Feb, with enough rain in that period to reach over half the annual total for here. March then became dry with 34mm, which isn't a lot.

Without the Jan/Feb rainfall we'd now be in rationing land around here from what I've heard. No car washes, garden hose use and perhaps dare I say it, the introduction of stand pipes in favoured places. 


Vale of the Great Dairies

South Dorset

Elevation 60m 197ft

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 April 2026 19:58:36
BBC weather this evening giving rainfall in Shoeburyness  Essex as 1% of average for the month to date but Kates Bridge NI 163%
War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

warrenb
27 April 2026 07:57:17
Current rainfall for this month is 2mm, most of that came in 1 shower we had.
Crepuscular Ray
27 April 2026 16:23:38
April rainfall here is 80% (40mm) Sunshine is 125% 
Jerry

Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill

Saint Snow
27 April 2026 18:43:08
Glad to see the western arm of that ppn band fizzle to nothing by the time it reached here. Was looking pretty active just 50 miles north of here. 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

fairweather
27 April 2026 19:32:58

BBC weather this evening giving rainfall in Shoeburyness  Essex as 1% of average for the month to date but Kates Bridge NI 163%

Originally Posted by: DEW 

There lies my problem, being just down the road from Shoebury. Just had a seven drop shower. It looked quite intense on the radar but seemed to fizzle on the way down through the dry air. Looks like more opportunities but if I get a mm from them I will  be surprised.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
27 April 2026 19:36:54

Glad to see the western arm of that ppn band fizzle to nothing by the time it reached here. Was looking pretty active just 50 miles north of here. 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Little wonder we want different things from the weather when you've had probably over a 100% of average rainfall and I've had 1% !


S.Essex, 42m ASL
fairweather
27 April 2026 21:55:39
Well the predicted showers moving through the region produced precisely nothing as expected, except for a few spits on the car windscreen!

Still at least the BBC presenter acknowledged how dry it is here at last.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
warrenb
28 April 2026 04:51:06
Yep absolutely zero recorded from last night's supposed showers with 99.999% of it evaporating before reaching the surface. Still on 2mm for the month 
Retron
28 April 2026 04:54:15

Yep absolutely zero recorded from last night's supposed showers with 99.999% of it evaporating before reaching the surface. Still on 2mm for the month 

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

The radar here shows it all fizzling before it got here - not even any "evaporating on the way down" stuff. 2.5mm for the past month here.


Leysdown, north Kent
Saint Snow
28 April 2026 08:53:46

Little wonder we want different things from the weather when you've had probably over a 100% of average rainfall and I've had 1% !

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Not really.

Here's the actual rainfall maps for the first 3 months of the year:

January (you and I got around the same amount)

UserPostedImage

February (similar picture)

UserPostedImage

March  (You're slightly drier, but not by that much)

UserPostedImage

The anomaly maps show that, compared to average, you and I are aboiut the same, if not here a little more down on average (as we would expect a little more rainfall).

The ground isnt wet, but it's far from dry and hard. 

Our reservoir levels , FWIW, are above average and all but Dee/Vyrnwy are 20-30 %-points higher than this time last year. 


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

fairweather
28 April 2026 09:22:36

Not really.

Here's the actual rainfall maps for the first 3 months of the year:

January (you and I got around the same amount)

UserPostedImage

February (similar picture)

UserPostedImage

March  (You're slightly drier, but not by that much)

UserPostedImage

The anomaly maps show that, compared to average, you and I are aboiut the same, if not here a little more down on average (as we would expect a little more rainfall).

The ground isnt wet, but it's far from dry and hard. 

Our reservoir levels , FWIW, are above average and all but Dee/Vyrnwy are 20-30 %-points higher than this time last year. 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

A good bit of confirmational bias there Saint. 😊 For March (and the small amount of rain fell in the beginning of the month), like Retron I am in the dark brown area and you are in the white. The last two weeks of March and all of April show a different picture. Have you had 1% of average for April so far as Met Office have just announced for here? Even without the stats you say your ground is still soft whereas here it is rock hard, with dust everywhere here. I take your point that you may be below average but you seem to be disputing that we are in a drought situation.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
tierradelfuego
28 April 2026 09:58:52
0.6mm this month, now up to 275.8mm for the year.

Out of the 5 local aquifers shown on the EA website that feed the Kennet, Lambourn and Pang catchments, 2 are still above the top of their normal range and both areas are still under a groundwater flood alert.


Bucklebury

West Berkshire Downs AONB

135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS

Rainfall collector separated at ground level

Anemometer separated above roof level

WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Crew )

Saint Snow
29 April 2026 09:29:31

A good bit of confirmational bias there Saint. 😊 For March (and the small amount of rain fell in the beginning of the month), like Retron I am in the dark brown area and you are in the white. The last two weeks of March and all of April show a different picture. Have you had 1% of average for April so far as Met Office have just announced for here? Even without the stats you say your ground is still soft whereas here it is rock hard, with dust everywhere here. I take your point that you may be below average but you seem to be disputing that we are in a drought situation.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

I actually posted the March anomaly chart in error. Here's the actual:

UserPostedImage

I'm not disputing you're in a 'drought situation', mate. I was disputing your assertion that "you've had probably over a 100% of average rainfall"


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

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