Yes thanks again for the link. I know it exists but I find it hard to locate and remember what day it's on.

The long dry continues then. But will it be a repeat of last year. Probably not I hope.

FAX - HP today centred 1035 mb E Scotland moving south, reinforced by more HP from Iceland and finishing on Mon 27th 1031mb E Anglia. LP on either side, in the Baltic and south of Greenland generate N-lies in the N Sea and S-lies in W Ireland to start with (probably some cloud for these areas) but by Monday 27th shifts in the position of LP and HP combine to move winds into the east for S England again, and SW-ly for N Scotland.

GFS Op - agrees with the above, and indeed almost no change in the overall pattern from Mon 27th for the week through to Mon 4th. Pressure then begins to drop, first with a weak trough affecting N Scotland, followed by a 'proper' depression 1000mb N Scotland Wed 6th, moving SE to  E Anglia still 1000mb Sat 9th, having brought some rather cold air from the NE in its tail.

ECM - a similar pattern to the above, though re-inforcements arrive from the SW, rather than the NW and move to Scotland rather than E Anglia on the 27th, with stronger E/SE-lies for S/SW England in the following week. Although the weak trough moves in on the 27th, it is not followed up by a deeper depression but instead move south to the Channel where it sets up residence from Tue 5th, along with the above NE -lies, and by Friday 8th S England is in a trough between two LPs both 995mb, Cornwall and Sweden

AIFS - London, maxima 16-19C generally but with a dip Tue 28th and (more prolonged) Tue 5th, on each occasion with a  (very) little rain. Edinburgh, maxima 11-13C, a couple of days exceeding this (Fridays 24th and 1st) but definitely cooler after the 1st, 9-10C. Small amounts of rain Mon 27th and from Mon  4th i.e. a day earlier than London

GEFS -   mean  temp and ens members starting 4 or 5C above norm with a slow decline over the next fortnight to about 2C below norm (less agreement towards the end of this period in Scotland and E England with some cold outliers). Not much rain, what there is, mostly forecast from Mon 4th onwards and only significant in NW Scotland.

Model projection for cloud cover:

Actual satellite image. It's the same story since the start of this dry spell:

And here is what that actual model shows for here. Unbroken skies lasting until tomorrow evening, but I already know looking at the satellite sequence that this won't be the case at all. 

https://www.dmi.dk/lokation/show/IE/2964180/Galway 

Do these models actually use an actual scan of the current conditions to 'initiialise' their next run,  or do they just guess based on their own former, and often wrong, previous projections? It makes no sense why they would use the latter. 

But read my previous post, first paragraph under FAX; "S-lies in W Ireland to start with (probably some cloud for these areas)"

GFS Op 0z - continues from FAX by moving the HP on to Norway 1030mb Thu 30th with SE-lies for all. Then another HP cell arises on the Atlantic with Britain briefly in a col between the two HP centres before the Atlantic HP takes over and that over Norway collapses, net result being LP into the Norwegian Sea 995mb Tue 5th with strong cold N-lies (esp for E coast). Although this LP loses its identity, pressure remains low (1010mb) over Britain to Sun 10th, looking like an 'April showers' setup.

ECM - has the same ingredients as GFS but with variations; the SE-lies on the 30th are much stronger in the SW with LP closer to Cornwall; and then the LP Tue 5th has moved in from the northwest rather than the northeast, and is positioned in the North Sea, but still drawing in cold NE-lies. It slowly fills and moves to S Norway but the NE-lies are still there as a weak feature on Sat 9th.

AIFS - London, maxima around 20C (brief dip with a little rain Tue 28th), then cooler (maxima 15C) from Mon 4th with rather more rain, and eventually (Fri 8th) down to 10C with quite a lot of rain. Edinburgh, maxima 12-15C to start with (a couple of warmer days today and Fri 1st) then a fairly steady decline from 14C Sun 3rd to 8C Thu 7th. A little rain Mon 27th, rather more and persistent from Mon 4th.

GEFS - mean temp near or a little above norm to Sun 10th, but poor agreement from ens members after Mon 4th with op run a very cold outlier and control run a fairly warm one. A little rain Tue 28th in the east, more probable and more widespread rain from Mon 4th but still not much.

Plan to do outdoor things early in the Bank Holiday weekend?

GFS Op 0z - the HP above spreads out and weakens. Change comes on Tue 5th with a trough moving across Scotland to Scandinavia with strong N-lies for the east side of Britain Thu 7th. As this system fills, HP nudges towards Ireland from the west, still N-ly regime but lighter and not directly from the Arctic Mon 11th. No sign of significant rain anywhere.

ECM - like GFS but the 'weakens' prediction is more noticeable with Britain in a shallow col for the BH weekend. The col develops into a shallow trough moving slowly eastwards, much as GFS, but importing the cold air more from the NE and winds less strong.

AIFS - London, maxima 20 C to Tue 28th, dipping for a day or two before back to 20C Fri 1st; then progressive decline to 13C Sat 9th, with rain - only a little at first but measurable by the 9th. Edinburgh, maxima variable 12-15C to Sun 3rd, then settling to 10-12C; traces of rain from Fri 1st and quite a lot on Fri 8th

GEFS - mean temp above norm now and from Thu 30th to Tue 5th, then below norm, with moderately good ens agreement. Maybe some very small amounts of rain in the coming week, but rather more likely from Tue 5th, still not particularly heavy.

So maybe the fine weather will just about hang on for the BH weekend, extended by a day or so; good spring weather now but in the long term looking cool with no real sign of summer

Our weather used to be changeable, now it just grids to a halt for weeks. Lots of the weather sayings and poems of the past just don't seem to apply anymore.

That is the reason why our weather has generally just become increasingly boring and uninteresting now, and that is why I don’t post anywhere near as often on here now as I used to.

It's April - the last thing we need from the weather right now is an early summer. We need rain !!

That's the meandering jet stream for you. 

Do we?  Reservoirs and stockpiles seem fine 

After all the rain we had in Jan and Feb,  I am glad for this dry spell.  Farms and gardens can be watered artificially

Yeah, we definitely don’t need rain here and didn’t last year either despite how dry it was. No water restrictions here and no one ran out. It was BAU. Long may the dry and warm weather continue 

I'm 68, I've been watching the weather for about 60 years and I've seen lots of meandering jet streams. Imo, this isn't meandering, this is conked out.

I think too many people say 'it's due to the jet stream' without being prepared look further to see if there's more to it. Just imo.

I'm sure you know why.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/met-office-weather-deep-dive-for-february-11 

Not a fan of prolonged dry spells, but I would take one this time around after such a miserable winter & spring.  Just when the place was drying out here over the last few days, it just rained out of the blue last night, undoing the bit of drying we desperately needed.  Not hopeful that any reasonably long dry spell on the cards yet going by the models. This high seems very 'dirty' and easily shifted out of place. 

Nope, not in Essex, East Kent and East Anglia and some other parts of Eastern England. Reservoirs down to 70-80% which is very low for April.

So six weeks with 2.5mm of rain and a cracked lawn in April spells trouble for the driest region in the Country. The NW needs sun after a wet winter I'm sure - that's just the massive variation in our National weather. 😊

GFS Op - agrees with FAX, then the disturbance near Cornwall amplifies into a weak trough lying through the Irish Sea and moving slowly E-wards over the BH weekend ( a definite downgrade from yesterday). By Wed 6th this trough has been squeezed down to a col between HP Scandinavia and HP mid-Atlantic. Then as the the former HP moves to Iceland and dominates, a shallow area of LP moves in from the west 990mb W Ireland Sun 10th, filling but still present as a broad trough W-E covering Britain Tue 12th (light NE-lies for N Scotland but nothing like the N-ly gales predicted by this model yesterday).

ECM - like GFS though development is accelerated in a week's time; the 'squeeze' down to a col is already in place by Mon 4th, and the shallow LP is developed 995mb off SW Ireland by Wed 6th.  This area of LP drifts slowly across S Britain to Sat 9th . After that although pressure remains fairly low over Britain, it takes the form of an extension to the LP on the Atlantic, not (as in GFS) an extended trough from Scandinavia westwards.

AIFS - London, maxima ca 20C to Sat 2nd then cooler at 16C to Wed 6th with occasional spits of rain in this period; then a further drop to 13C with heavy rain on Thu 7th. Edinburgh, maxima rather variable, 12-15C to Sat 2nd then 10-12C for the following week; some measurable rain Sun 3rd, small amounts at other times esp later on.

GEFS - mean temp near or a little above norm to Tue 12th, cold outliers incl op and control appear after Sun 3rd and warm outliers in other runs soon after i.e. poor agreement after the first week. Small amounts of rain possible until Mon 3rd, becoming more probable and heavier esp after Thu 7th in N & W.

Well maybe but then again what would explain the extreme weather patterns around the time of Gilbert White.

In his diaries there are references to extremely dry Springs and early Summers much like now

Also in the works of A.G.Street ,he is often remarking on the lack of Spring rain,he farmed just outside Salisbury.

I'd love to talk about climate but wrong thread?

I agree 100%. The "jet stream" is now the go to for professional agencies too. However, if you have a sore throat the explanation may be that you've caught a cold, but if you keep catching colds the more important question is why. 

We're at 98% (end of March). Last year it was 88%