Strong example unfolding of how fickle the forecast modelling can be: Notable warmth that as of the end of March was being predicted to make a brief visit late Mon into Tue is now being predicted to stick around through Wed or even Thu before easing but perhaps not fully clearing until the weekend.
The GFS runs of 31st March gave me a CET estimate for 1st-10th April of around 8.8°C which is about 0.6°C above the 1991-2020 average for up to that point.
The 12z GFS of today, appended into the observed for 1st-4th, gives an estimate of around 10.1°C for that same period!
If the observed are substituted into the GFS runs of 31st March, the estimate from them increases to about 9.3°C. So around 0.8°C of the upward shift is due to the changes to the forecast.
What's more, GFS is by far the most reserved with its daily max temperatures for Tue-Wed, predicting high teens in the CET area when the latest two ECMWF det. runs have predicted low 20s with the possibility of Pershore reaching 22°C.
With all this having gone on, I'm glad I was sceptical of the chilly easterly scenario for later next week.
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2025's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None
Keep Calm and Forecast On