Media already ramping up this spell, which is going to be short lived, but perhaps a shock to the system. 

Longer term, deep FI  ECM suggests another northerly is possible

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_ctrl.php?&ech=360&mode=0 

The peak of the cold spell is three days with maxima of 7C, 6C and 7C down here and maybe an air frost at night.  Hardly going to shock anyone that!

Actually make that 7/7/8 according to the BBC. That is not a cold spell in anyone’s book. 

More of a cool down- but with lower uppers and dew points than we saw from the block, so more like March used to be in my childhood, when surface temperatures could be +7 degrees C but snow flakes would be falling from cumulus cloud showerlets! 

That said, I wouldn't trust it as far as Friday at the moment, let alone Sunday!

The MetO raw is, as ever, unmoved by all this, instead showing a dry weekend with highs of 7C on Saturday and 9C on Sunday.

No cold or snowy spell for Edinburgh, 5 or 6 C is not a shock for here

We didn't get any snow early in the year either and January was dry (75%). In February we've only had 10mm so far

I will be glad to see drier weather for all those poor flooded folk in the south, south-west and Aberdeenshire though

It would be very interesting to calculate the winter “CET+10”, that is the CET as modelled 10 days out, and compare it to the actual one!

GFS Op - takes the current LP to cover all of Britain By Thursday, so E-lies start earlier, and moves it on into Poland sooner, but with a trough hanging back , so N-lies for Britain late Friday, By late Sat 14th all has cleared away (the one-day winter for the south!) and there is a ridge of HP in place. The weather then switches to a more 'normal' W-ly pattern of LPs running across N Scotland, preceded by strong SW-lies and followed by N-lies before the next LP (centres 985mb Orkney Tue 17th, 970mb Fair Isle Tue 24th) - wet and cool for the NW, drier and mild for the SE.

ECM - like GFS, though the N-lies which follow the passage of LP 17th are stronger.

WX charts as interpreted by Birmingham Mail offer a 5-day blizzard from Fri 13th, for about the tenth time this winter - the sort of thing that gives meteorologists a bad name. But one for the straw-clutchers.

AIFS - London, maxima 8-10C but dipping to 3C this coming weekend and more briefly Sat 21st, rain except in the colder spells. Edinburgh, maxima from about 8C now slowly dropping to 2C at the weekend then slowly recovering  to ca 6C with a final mild burst (10C) on Mon 23rd, dry this weekend, else rain at intervals.

GEFS - In the S, man and ens temps agree on mild now, a cold weekend, then mean near norm with ens members increasingly spread, op and control very mild from Mon 23rd, Rain heavy and frequent to Tue 17th, perhaps as snow as the cold snap arrives and leaves, slowly drying up (less rain but greater chance of snow in the east). In the N, the cold snap starts a day or two earlier and snow very likely as it arrives, otherwise same pattern as S.

Was looking at the webcams around Copenhagen ...think we dream of witnessing a once in a generation winter and to be so close to one is truelly frustrating. The resigned feeling that despite all the +10 models we are literally going to get morsules this winter and the fact that likely we will not see a close hit like this for many a years to come or maybe in our lifetime...that lack of hope on here past few weeks tells a story.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24393-Breakout-thread/page11 

Wonder if by Sunday we will be free from any model hope of cold/snow for the first time in months? 

Not sure of that though as there continues to be a signal for amplification even if it's a bit of a struggle re any cold air. 

Most of the posts moved since you created it are still actually talking about *weather*, and some make good points or include useful info. Could you not move these to whichever seasonal general discussion thread we're using? They tend to get lost when shunted to the Breakout thread. The trolling/arguing/insulting posts can still be sent to the Breakout, so they're not visible to non-TWO forumites.

(although I appreciate it'd be another onerous chose for you and you have limited time to waste - maybe get your Mods to do it?)

The situation regarding rainfall is actually very interesting because there are two different ways of deciding how wet or dry a particular month or season actually is.

The most common approach with that is to go by the actual rainfall amounts and if you go by that, this still continues to be a dry period here as you have said which is very concerning indeed when you consider that Edinburgh experienced its worst drought for over 60 years last year.

However, the other way of doing that is to go by the number of rain days and when you do that, you'll find that it's actually been quite wet here. January had an above average number of rain days here and so far this month, we've already had 46.7% of the 1991-2020 February average number of rain days at Edinburgh Gogarbank even though we're not much more than a quarter of the way through this month.

As a result, we can't therefore say that it's not actually been raining here. The rain has been falling here as it has been elsewhere, but just not amounting to very much when it does and that is because of that almost persistent SE flow which has prevented a lot of the rain from actually reaching here due to the shelter from the nearby Pentkand Hills to our south and the Lammermuir Hills to our SE.

From this we clearly have a conflict here between it being wet in terms of the number of rain days, but dry in terms of the actual rainfall amounts which  was ongoing through January, and which is still ongoing during this month as well.

There are two ways in which that can be changed. First of all, we could get a general build of high pressure which would reduce the number of rain days, but that would just increase our rainfall deficit even further.

The other way of changing that is if the Atlantic fires up with the jet stream coming a bit further north so that we end up in a more westerly airflow. That could result in at least some of that rain filtering through the Forth-Clyde Valley towards here, which could then have the effects of increasing the rainfall totals even here in Edinburgh.

For now though, I'm not really seeing any signs of either of those two scenarios in the latest model output. 

Agree totally. Frequent spells of light rain or drizzle spread out over a number of weeks keeping the ground drenched can give the impression it might have been a wet month, even if statistically, it might not be. A summer thunderstorm in an otherwise dry month could (and can) bring more than the average monthly total in a single dump, which would read it as a wet month in the final data. Really just proves that data alone cannot reflect lived experience. 

Rather than going OT, people can open new threads in this section of the forum if they are directly weather related. The problems which usually occur are: 1. Trigger posts - a post which will obviously trigger a reaction and take the thread OT 2. Political comments which can be made in the UIA. 

https://modeles3.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf2/runs/2026020906/ecmwf-0-144.png?6 

The GFS 12z in FI looks good in this respect.

After all that's happened lately, I think most people would be extremely glad of a dry spell now, be it of the cold or mild type.

The MetO raw continues to be unmoved by it all, showing 6C and drizzle here at noon on Sunday.

One thing that *does* seem certain, though (aside from the Atlantic returning) is the continuing deluge over the next few days. Delightful.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/82/2012/animgyf7.gif 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/gallery/metofficegovuk/images/about-us/press-office/release-images/2026/science-upgrade.jpg 

Note the aircraft section, which explains that they're adding more aircraft data which will improve initialisation - leading to "significantly better forecasts". Incidentally ECM has always had the best initialisation data, but I'm not sure whether that's still the case following the MetO upgrade. 

GFS Op - follows on from FAX. The ridge of HP doesn't last as LPs from the Atlantic resume their normal course near N Scotland  - 985mb W Isles Tue 17th, 985mb Shetland Sun 22nd (S-lies as they arrive, N-lies as they depart, brief ridge of HP between). The latter LP is slow to move on and brings a few days of more persistent N-lies from Wed 25th.

ECM - like GFS but brings those Atlantic LPs through a day or two earlier; by Wed 25th the N-lies have moved on and Britain is under the next ridge of HP. 

AIFS - maxima 10C now, but 4C (and dry) for the weekend, back to 8C briefly before settling at 4-5C from Wed 18th, and drier after this date. Edinburgh, similar pattern though never as high as 8C; the cooler spell after the 18th has lots of sunshine and frosty nights.

GEFS - mean temp mild now with sharp dip to 6-7C below norm over the weekend, all agreed with ens members. From Mon 16th, mean near norm but ens runs all over the place, op & control hinting at milder around 22nd. Rain at intervals to Thu 19th though dry for the coming weekend, fewer ens members with rain thereafter in the S but more persistent in N. Snow unlikely in S exc briefly on E coast, but in N likely as cold spell sets in at the weend

The winter that never was continues towards an inglorious conclusion.

Looking for signs of Spring now, and there are some at end of run for the South East...expect 21c in March ,a red hot April then the Atlantic returns 2007 style...going into  a spell of annoying weather patterns the UK at present.