GFS Op - as above, then from Sun 8th the Atlantic LP re-positions off SW Britain and brings in a S-ly flow for all. A brief spell of HP, then a rollercoaster; LP 975mb Sat 14th drawing in a chunk of very cold air form the NE quickly followed Tue 17th by ridge of HP and very mild air from the S/SW.

ECM - Atlantic LP stands further off for the coming week so winds are more SE-ly (and not so cold compared to GFS) for all. By contrast, from Sun 8th pressure drops over France and winds go round to an E-ly (but bringing up air from the Med in its circulation so not cold). Then the LP steps back to the Atlantic and winds veer S-ly for a day or two before the LP extends a trough across C Britain Fri 13th no sign of a cold NE-ly blast.

AIFS - London, maxima 8-10C (dip on 14th), rain on many days, winds E-ly this week, S-ly next week, then mixed. Edinburgh, maxima 3-5C this week, a few days at 7C, then dropping to about 3C from Fri 13th. Non-stop rain, winds consistently E-ly.

GEFS - England, mean temp and most ens members near norm to Tue 10th; mean continues near norm but a wide spread of ens members, notably cold from control Thu 12th and op Tue 17th, rain in moderate amounts throughout but less in E. more in W and not much in N in the coming week. Scotland. mean temps a little below norm to Thu 12th, then norm with increasing spread from ens (the cold op noted for England shows up but not that from control). Small amounts of rain or snow continuously  to 12th then wetter but mostly rain.

Still, there’s another four weeks of ‘winter’ left . . . 😉

Things still look more promising for Scotland and maybe northern England at times but even here things aren't as strongly tilted towards colder uppers as they were. 

There is still a chance of colder ait getting countrywide according to GEFS for example, but it's the kind of signal that you generally ignore unless a few runs consolidate below the average and the traffic has been the other way for a couple of days now. I'll keep an eye out for a reversion to more robust blocking etc. but as others have mentioned I suspect the noteworthy aspect down here will be continued rainfall. 

Amusingly the mean on ECM strat winds forecast ticked up slightly on Sunday's run too - a blip or a move away from a reversal? Not something I was planning on clutching as a straw anyway, but would be about right if we got close to a reversal but not quite there, very much in keeping with weather further down in the trop. (In case anyone hasn't seen my previous caveats, it's a mid Feb signal, would take at least a couple of weeks to impact the trop IF it filtered down and is no guarantee of cold for MBY - it's just interesting seeing if it has an impact and what is is, particularly if it really knocks the normal jet and pressure patterns about). 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/40d74-n74d00/new-york--ny--united-states 

Sadly the 00Z was a hugely different story, and the 6Z op run looks even worse so far.

And you just know that a forecast for cold 5 days out won't go wrong for NY, unlike here!

Shame it’s so flabby up north

My own interpretation of what is on offer this morning is inline with the above. I will stand corrected if its game, set and match for this season.

but agree with others. this has been the most ridiculous period of model watching i have ever seen.  For a month the models have been toying with us and now it seems the final insult.  

The only positive I can find is that we might still end up with an average February CET which would make it the coldest for many years and would mean two back-to-back near average months which is rare in the UK these days.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/reanalysis.aspx 

Forget it as the starting date was over due since after mid Jan so it won't happen unless we get a breakdown to end this horrible no weather/winter pattern so we can either get Spring alike or proper real cold and snowy weather. 06z ensembles say no and same story since early Jan.

Mods, can you please move this post to the breakout thread

Thanks

😜

Six more weeks stuck in this pattern would do anyone’s head in !! Suppose to snow here in Speyside overnight, will be interesting to see if it does ! After all it’s been showing on the models for the last 4 weeks ! 

Yes, the models (but maybe not the forecast) suggest wintry precipitation here tonight and tomorrow, with an accompanying snow warning (away from coastal Aberdeen and Shire). The currently reality is slightly colder rain and dark and grey as it has been for over two weeks. 

We badly need a break down this current non-weather period as it been too long now.   For sure a break down to bring normal zonality 0 to 5C uppers or more, a northerly bringing much drier, sunnier and under -5 to -10C uppers, a early spring a like 5-10C uppers are far much better than this set up which is the worst ever set up to endure this.

I think it time for all posters in NW to start looking for much needed breaK down on this pattern, the only way out of it instead of hoping for a fake easterly that end up same status as today pattern.

I suppose one blessing for many is that, given we are in peak storm season, that the current pattern is keeping such potential very much supressed. Personally I would love to see some livelier weather but I'd also take some drier, gentlier weather as well. As you say, this in-between status is beginning to wear thin. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=gfs&var=201&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1

 Doesn't show any marked break down on the 12z ensembles but notice the rain spikes are slowly declining and uppers are slowly rising to just above but need a stark fast asap break down from this pattern.  Deep cold can get lost as i don't want it anymore as now it past is sell-by date 21st Jan 2026 and like you said I am now looking for Spring mild/warmth to occur later in Feb.

We’ve not had a cold February for 30 years and I’m not seeing anything to suggest we are in for a cold one. 

January turned out milder than average vs 61-90 CET despite the cold first week. 

January was slightly below rolling 30 year CET, so that’s notable enough these days

Europe has been pretty cold, especially Scandinavia and central / Eastern Europe. Cold in Germany for large parts of January

The block has kept us in no man’s land and continues to do so for February, at least first part anyway