Dreadful run lol hope it's a blip..

At the moment I'd say there's a decent chance of a breakdown shortly after day 10. And unlike the phantom cold spells we've seen over the past couple of weeks, what's the betting the breakdown counts down perfectly? 

(Again, at least the ECM delivers a brief cold blast in the south as the block collapses. Think of it as flushing the cold down the drain, and that's about the only interest for coldies down here.)

We desperately need a break down to end this current horrible pattern to spring alike pattern or proper cold/snowy or sunny frosty spell to occur.  Anything to get out of this less cold to average and very wet since early Jan need to go.    We used to hate break down on heatwaves or cold spells but this time needed for this non-weather spell and hope it counting down sooner.

I think the pattern will change through the middle third of Feb. Whether or not we get a cold snap or cold spell as that happens is another question.

Based on the 12Z output, we revert to a westerly pattern by mid month.

Personally, I think that's very possible but far from certain. The GEFS continues to show the ensemble mean near the 30 year norm, but that's in part appears to be an artefact of mild and cold runs cancelling each other from ~10/02.

Fingers crossed but that’s a long way off with literally a lot of water to pass under the bridge and easterly muck before then. 

Just as useless then.

Yes, that's how I would interpret that set. Mind the next week is almost slap bang on the long term mean and that has been derived from a similar looking set of ensembles from 10 days ago.

Just to add it wasn’t but looked promising at 132h, lots more twists

I’ll take that anyway - bank!!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/71/8868/gem_0_210yte1.png 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/56/28123/gem_16_222bhe1.png 

The fat lady went home weeks ago, the opera having closed for the season. She's thinking of going on holiday to Greece next week.

Back to the models, the GEFS shows there's still a decentish chance of somewhat colder conditions in the next week, with the op being one of the mildest runs out to 192. It's not deep cold though and the main picture remains, as it has been for weeks now, just how wet it'll be. At least we're not in Portugal, I suppose, as they've been consistently shown to have 300mm or more of rain over the next fortnight... 

The ECM has a couple of cold pulses across the north, but the only place to see deep cold air, as has been the case recently, is Shetland. The picture is very wintry up there, e.g. Wednesday sees snow all day with strong winds blowing it around:

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/forecast/gfxpf3mgn#?date=2026-02-04 

Down here in the south it's as bleak as ever if you're a coldie. I still suspect the best chance of seeing cold air will be when the block collapses, but as GEM shows today even that's no guarantee!

Feb is coldest month!

I reckon we will still get a few teasing runs this month but at the moment be prepared to get wet.