Just under three weeks of the "midwinter" period to go, once you get to mid-Feb down here it becomes exponentially harder to get the sort of classic snowy spells without drip-drip-dripping as the sun gets that much stronger. You then need either an existing snowcover (i.e. 1986, 2005) or record-breaking cold air aloft (i.e. 2018) to do it. 

I see that the GEFS is back to hovering around a 33% chance for deep cold air for London over its past few runs, but of course that's still far away in rainbow-chasing FI. Last time the rainbow fizzled out and now it's reappeared, just as far away as ever. 

The main interest now is just how much rain will fall tomorrow, and as I said last week I expected flooding to be in the news this week - hopefully it won't be, but when rainfall measured in inches comes along when the ground is saturated it's never much fun!

Winter is not over until after the last day of February, at least meteorogically speaking. Therefore, we still have just under five weeks of it to go if we go by that definition of it.

Those who were on this forum way back in early 2005, which I think it is quite a few of us (I started visiting this forum and following the model ouput around that time) will probably still remember the drama that took place in the models in early February that year. IIRC, the models had for a time suggested a cold easterly, and when they renaged in it there was mass despondency in these threads and some were on the point of throwing the towel in for any cold that winter. However, not long afterwards the models changed their mind again and brought the easterly back, and on this occasion it did happen. That made me realise that on some occasions, the models can be just as unpredicatable and fickle as the weather itself often is in this country.

In terms of this winter, the start of FI has often been around a week ahead at the very most for much of the time ever since Christmas, and that remains very much the case right now. 

There look to be just as many stragglers to me, though you have to wait till 5th Feb for them to start to appear. And by the end of FI - which admittedly is a long way away - the 850mb ensemble mean is down at -5C, which is as low if not lower than it's been for the last few days' runs. Though I suppose the end of FI is a couple of weeks away, so you may be right about having to wait that long.

Still a decent number of stragglers further North for the first few days of Feb in the GEFS, keeping some hope up, but as you say for most of us we are looking at a couple of weeks now.

I agree in part but 20 years was a long time ago and a lot has changed! I suspect down here we have more chance of getting a record breaking 22C than an ice day. 

Scotland taps into the Cold and often below average. 

I do think people will be clutching at straws for anything notable in February 

First half of February, is the final frontier for decent winter cold

2nd half of February,  we are nowadays firmly in spring. Before anyone #s 2018, of course there's a chance but that's a lifetime event these days for us

The Atlantic fails to break through but its pretty average

January may well sneak above average on the core baseline, would have been nice to at least break 4C. 

We still had ice days in late March as recently as 2013 down here (24 March in fact!) so it is perfectly possible any time in February.

ECM is another frustrating watch as the cold circles round and round to our northeast without ever getting any nearer... and then just as the run is about to end a big -25C push starts charging towards us!

From around 7th Feb or so there's a decent signal that colder air may make it's way south, courtesy of blocking somewhere around Greenland. There seems to be an unusually good level of agreement in the blocking bit, but not on how much of an influence this has over the UK - Scotland looks likely to see colder air again as a result of the blocking, it's uncertain the further south you head but there's a decent signal for the cold to cover most of the UK. There's also a decent signal for it not to get as far south as MBY, so confidently predicting cold would be a bit premature/daft IMO. Plus it remains in deep FI and whilst it's been a persistent signal for a while now, that's no guarantee it won't disappear as it gets closer to the reliable and the models get a better handle on the jet, LP strengths etc. 

As it stands the one thing that doesn't look likely is dry weather - most of the drainage ditches locally are full at present and the ground saturated, so any 10+mm rain events is likely to lead to some local issues and any more noticeable rainfall totals could lead to more noticeable flooding. 

Edit = hadn't seen the ECM set that Brian's just posted, would probably have been more pessimistic about the longer term cold chances down here if I had!

We are so close to some deep cold air. Corrections needed are tiny. Its why we even see big differences between regional models and their parents which is very unusual.

Well we had the Beast more recently than that! Not saying it's impossible just that it is far less likely to get an equivalent either long or severe snowy spell. We are probably going to see a couple more times of it snowing in the south before winter is over but I suspect 20C in February is more likely than a week of lying snow!

So close to being a fantastic winter chart…..

That will be the obituary of this winter

Even the serious posters on netweather have now given up.  Sadly it looks very wet and perhaps windy for the forseable as the UK gets stuck under a permanent trough. 

To be fair they change they have mood swings like 3 year olds. Still lots to play for even if it looks drab at the moment. Wouldn’t take a lot to swing it back in favour of cold

Seen worse extended ECM

I do hope they are right! However these same models have been signalling the FI cold spell for a month now - and seem to push it back and back each day.  I am beginning to think the promise of Jam tomorrow is a rainbow not worth the chase - but I am confident only from the experience of my vast age that the cold so embedded in Scandinavia will spill out westwards to Scotland at least by March. 

The 'Jam tomorrow' output continues and it certainly wouldn't be a surprise if the stalemate situation stayed with us until March. 

GFS Op - LP continues on the Atlantic as above to Mon 2nd, at times close to NW Scotland, but then a section breaks off and runs SE-wards to Brittany. This counts as a failed attempt to set up LP to the S of Britain, and there is little overall change for that week, but by Sun 8th the Atlantic LP has transferred to N France 990mb and winds have gone round to the NE. The LP drifts N-wards from France and stays over Britain 1000mb Wales Thu 12th with a closed circulation not succeeding in drawing anything really cold from Scandinavia, where the HP has collapsed.

ECM - rather like GFS though for the w/b Sun 8th the LP stays to the S of Britain, near Cornwall, with more of an E-ly developing

AIFS - London, maxima 5-8C  to Sun 8th then cooler, wet today then small amounts of rain at various times, winds S or SE to the 8th then N-ly. Edinburgh, maxima close to 5C to the 8th then also cooler, rain today and Tue 3rd, occasionally other days, winds e/SE but aagin N-ly at the end.

GEFS - in England, mean temp near norm again to Sun 8th, with good ens support, then dropping off as the ens spread introduces an increasing number of cold outcomes, not balanced by anything mild. Rain now and w/b Sun 1st, , less later on but still present, snow row negligible. Mean temp and pptn similar for Scotland (though amounts of pptn less); the big difference is that ens members have a much wider spread of temps both mild and cold from Sun 1st. The number of colder ens members push snow row figures up to 50%+.

This is a very strong signal as it's cross model including ECM. Still a long way out so it can easily still go wrong. 

yes, but all kicked into long grass.  but it does remind me of 2005.  I had just joined TWO and I remember the models kept suggesting a cold spell in early Feb, but got delayed for a few weeks.   Didnt get much snow here from that but Darren always talks about it.  

The set-up we are in at the moment reminds me a lot of what we had during the first half of December with LP over or very near the British Isles on a daily basis. The only difference between December and now was that is was generally somewhat milder across most areas during December's unsettled spell. IIRC, ECM was the first model in mid-December, or among the first anyway, to signal the start of the change to the drier and colder spell over Christmas which then led to the blast from the north for a week or so after New Year. The other models soon got on board with ECM in this regard. While taking account of the fact that the change now being suggested is still a while off, let's hope that ECM will proved to be as accurate this time as it was in December.