Don’t you you feel so fed up hearing about stupid high ground nonsense as UK sit in a cold latitude zone which we should get snow all levels unrestricted?  It fine to accept if UK sit in the Med region so only hills to mountains get snow.    Will keep following the ensembles today onward to see the mean to drop to require -12C and lower if possible. 00z still have wide scatters from 1st Feb so need to watch this closely to make sure no back pushing is allowed and lower the mean faster earlier on. 

With respect, you have been told many times that our climate is a maritime one affected by the surrounding warm waters (exacerbated by the Gulf Stream). The factor of our latitude is outweighed by the Atlantic maritime influence (or North Sea one for here too!). Surrounded by temperate seas we will not and never have had a continental climate in living memory. The closest we would get would be cold southeasterly weather in southern parts where they could almost be seen as “part of mainland continental Europe”. We cannot in a relatively small island by a massive ocean regularly expect the climate of a large land mass at quite northerly latitude. I’m not quite sure why I’m writing this as you have ignored or discounted it every other time.

Looking ahead at the model output, the almost omnipresent Atlantic influence on our weather is still evident with more the same as recently likely. It looks like never being overly mild or overly cold in the coming week, just unsettled with a glimmer of signs of something colder into February, which in weather terms is some way off.

Now if the world rotated in the other direction then we could talk about continental conditions!

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/maps-and-charts/rainfall-radar-forecast-map# 

FAX - current LP 979mb Ireland filling and replaced by a development of the Greenland LP, 959mb Wales Tue 27th, retreating NW-wards to allow another to run into the Bristol Channel 971mb Thu 29th. HP 1025mb N Baltic by Thu 29th but otherwise low pressure widespread over Europe.

GFS Op - that Bristol Channel LP spreads its influence over Britain until Sat 31st but fills. It is followed by a repeat of the contest between LP LP 965mb just west of Ireland and HP 1035mb Baltic with severe S-ly gales Tue 3rd. The LP slips SE-wards with some cold air briefly for Britain Thu 5th but as it moves further into the continent the HP also moves further north. The net result by Tue 10th is deep cold with gales for Shetland but most of Britain still under Atlantic influence.

ECM - similar pattern to the above, though the Atlantic LP stands off a bit further W of Ireland so gales less severe on Tue 3rd. Cold air lasts a day or two longer after Thu 5th but as in GFS by Thu 10th the real cold is well to the north, and this model has more of a trough from the west across England.

AIFS - London, maxima ca 7C with a slight dip Sun 1st and a bigger one (down to 0C) Fri 6th, rain at intervals, winds from between S & E. Edinburgh, slow decrease from 5C now to 0C Fri 6th then recovering, small amounts of rain every day, winds consistently from the east.

GEFS - in England temps close to or a little below norm, but with an increasing number of cold ens members in the 2nd week of Feb incl both op & control. Heavy rain Tue 27th and some every day thereafter in most ens members, heavy in SW, light in SE. Snow row insignificant. In Scotland, pptn profile similar though amounts not large, but mean temp 2 or 3 C below norm and more cold outliers, snow row about 50% of possible. 

Approximate local.

Some potential and plenty of uncertainty.

The models seems to have decided early Feb is off for a reversion to cold this morning at first glance, with a decent signal for cold circa 7th Feb on ECM set although by no means enough to be confident, even if it wasn't deep FI. GEFS less keen but general pattern largely backs the ECM ops. There seems an unusually consistent signal for weak Greenland blocking in the models (GEFS postage back this idea) and as usual the variation is the result of a tug of war between the blocking and the jet/Atlantic as to whether cold air makes it to the UK, bits of it only or not at all. It may all collapse off so would want to see the signal maintained now and move closer to the reliable as we head through next week. 

Near term remains wet, more chance of chilly/cold stuff as you head north and a great interlude for the Scottish ski industry (the photo's of the drifting around the restaurant etc. were nice).

Not sure I can deal with another ECM easterly that never comes. But I do have an eyebrow raised for around the start of February. 

I bet the USA will go back into the freezer and then models will flip as always...and give us cyclogenisis!!? How many failures will we get this winter?

Need to watch the date stamp as I think the models are trying to sneak to push back to 7th or later from some charts I saw in NW.  Sorry I don't deal with push backs as once a push backs start it mean game over and won't materialized.

Very poor ensembles for 06z and show how inaccurate lately for Tuesday awas -2C uppers now plus 2C while the mean refusing to drop to required -12c from 1st Feb onward, it show dropping at very end to -4C so thanks but no thanks.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1 

For context, the lowest GEFS ensemble mean (t850 hPa) here when we had 15 inches of snow “only” -11.8°C, and only one set from the entire buildup had the mean dip below -12°C and that was -12.1°C for 6 hours.

The GEFS and ECM data (including the 06z GEFS) continue to hint at colder conditions in the early stages of February but there’s far far too much uncertainty (even before then) for it to be anything more than “interesting”. It’s not a guarantee, assurance or promise of snow, but it is an option which is probably dependent on multiple other factors. Another option is the status quo could be maintained until spring. Hopefully not, and perhaps neither will be the reality.

The good stuff is always 9 days away! In the pre internet era all we had was Countryfile and Ceefax, and the occasional newspaper report or whatever hints Bill Giles might give during a BBC forecast!

We were a lot happier only knowing 6 days ahead. 

Speak for yourself, I love all the data! 😀

The important thing is not to focus only on the things you want and take them as gospel. There are some terrific options out there but equally quite a number of grim ones for those who want to see something wintry.

Was far more accurate than today too many models, AI, etc all failed big time every time.  They did not pick up the intense cold in USA that thwarted our supposed deep cold easterly which should be here today.  Even in short range 06z show the uppers jump to 2C from -2C in 2 days time.   Let see if this next easterly will fail or not on futher runs. 

Looking at things objectively and based on verified statistics: 

https://ourworldindata.org/weather-forecasts#:~:text=The%20solid%20line%20is%20for,key%20developments%20explain%20these%20improvements. 

https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3728477 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/quality-our-forecasts 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/33/6/waf-d-18-0117_1.xml 

And if you want one single at a glance chart: https://wmolcdnv.ecmwf.int/scores/time_series 

Just checked through the data and there are 10 sub -10°C hPa runs in the London ensembles for the start for Feb (from 2nd of Feb). 

As you would expect in the general synoptics that number is higher up here at 19. Overall the outlook is uncertain but cold is an option, whether it just remains an “option” rather than a reality at any point in the remaining 5 weeks of winter is very much to be determined.

With the exception of Wednesday the 06z GEFS mean is marginally below that of the previous set, but the big thing that stands out to me from the ensemble data is the uncertainty (in the south in the longer term and up here from as soon as Friday).

Latest GFS Op’ is complete about turn from the 06z, but ECM still promising in FI. Just have a feeling that the increased cold air to our north and east will get less stable in Feb and spill south across us - at some point. We shall see. My guess is around the Buchan cold spell just before  valentines day! 

The 06z is the latest op run. The 12z doesn’t come out for a couple of hours.

Yes looking like the Easterly potential for the 1st or 2nd of February has already been cancelled. We are now looking much further into February for something more interesting, and even that may not happen or get pushed back further.

I hadn’t realised you had called an easterly, or at least a cold one, (as we are stuck with easterly muck currently)? Why did you think that a cold easterly was likely in the 1st or 2nd as you haven’t mentioned it before? All I can see from all your previous posts since joining is comments about it not looking good, wobbles, giving up, lost chances and phantom easterlies. Generally Melancholic stuff.

Looking back at the data it only seems like a coler trend in early February rather than the sudden manifestation of an easterly on the first day of the month. That cooler/cooling trend from the start of February is still evident as it has been since yesterday, perhaps the day before. It could of course not materialise, or be watered down, but but we all know that.

SOZ Doc - typo - meant 00z 

I can remember back to the 1960s, when the predecessor to "Countryfile" was a 30 minute programme called "Farming Today", shown in early afternoon on a Sunday. It would end with the "weather forecast for farmers and growers", usually presented by Bert Foord or Graham Parker, which would give the outlook for the coming week and which was compulsive viewing for the teenage me, especially in winter.

Far more accurate?! I'm pretty sure it wasn't.