Another promising run. The super-block holds up against the Atlantic onslaught and wins out once the jet begins to meander and dig further south. 

As Michael says, it's likely to be one of the colder options, but very plausible given the current set-up. 

Current TWO Optimism Index? I'd say around 6.5/10 

It's a variation on a cold theme that's been popping up quite regularly on various model op runs during the past 24 hours 👍

It was in the suite envelope, albeit a minority signal. I have a suspicion it won’t be that well supported but it’s a little worm on the hook for another session fishing for the phantom easterly. 

It was certainly a nice run for your neck of the woods. Let's see if there's some support around the 200 hour mark, but I understand your reluctance to bait your rod, let alone board the vessel! 

lol - sums it up , but as ever, more runs needed. 

I like one of those member going for -14C and the mean which was zzzz earlier runs now dropping to -3C so another -9C to drop to -12C required to avoid less cold day temps.  I am after max subzero temperatures to enjoy with powdery snow cover.

It seem that WeatherFanatic123 in NW might had been very correct as he insisted that early Feb is the one we will get the deep cold not this week failed one as he never go for it due to USA in deep freeze which will abated next week.

It does all give a strong sense of deja vu - a mostly average ens suite (IMBY) with a few cold stragglers in the mid to long term and a pattern that's so very nearly decent and could go that way if the weather gods play nice and don't ramp the jet up or send it on the wrong angle. Now all we need is some growing cold scatter to appear in the suites, a few day after tomorrow op runs and we'll be ready for round 2🤪

The amusing thing for me with the about turn from the initial colder outlook (appreciating some colder air for some at times) is how well the models did with the initial set up for the 26th Jan, which is very, very close to what they picked out 4 days or so ago:-

Unfortunately where the various ops etc. toyed with modelling all our ducks in a row from that point, most of them fell off and ended up all over the shop. 

The MO over the last week has typically shown the block holding up the Atlantic onslaught. The cold air has been consistently projected to stay over Scotland or just to its NE across the MO.

What's changed in the GFS 12z op is that the Atlantic has lost its puff.

Over the past week many GFS ENS have showed a similar projection, when the GFS ops turbo charged the Atlantic repeatedly. 

Given the relative performance of the 0Z and the 12Z over the last week or ten days, I'd be more convinced if the 0Z had come up with it. Looking at the 12Z ensemble, though a few member come up with something similar to the Op the ensemble mean 850mb temperature remains stubbornly within a degree or two of the long-term mean. 

Looks possible but who knows if a random low will form over Scandi to spoil it and waft up some southerlies! Nice to see at the moment

GEFS down here not as interesting although the 4 sub -10c aren't without their charm (5 with the later one):-

MOGREPs is obviously shorter term but has a cooler signal at the end (London set). 

Not quite there yet and it's one set of runs, with a far from convincing signal but if it's present tomorrow maybe the merry go round is starting up again, even if somewhat haltingly. (I suspect though majority closer to the average will remain more likely but it is an interesting or irritatingly persistent signal depending on how full your glass is). 

This truly is the Rocky Balboa of cold blocks! Despite all those Atlantic uppercuts, it steadfastly refuses to go down! 

Let's hope the 'Eastern Assassins' punch resistance can hold out long enough to see it take down the Atlantic with a late round KO  (first week in February would do nicely!)

WRT to ECMs extended run earlier, it does again have weak blocking over Greenland - not in a countrywide cold way but cold for many, particularly Northern England and Scotland:-

It may be wrong or a mirage but it's consistently so for the time being. 

I've seen it commented onbefore that winter easterlies often show up suddenly in the short to medium term after being dismissed in the longer. Perhaps this is another case of that? Maybe, maybe not. But it is a pattern that could easily happen given the current state of play. 

Couldn’t resist lol. 

The five sixes analogy (as opposed to two sixes required in the 80s) holds true.

In the reliable period, though, no sign of anything of note other than lots of rain down here. The op runs from GEM, GFS and ECM all keep 850s around freezing, -2 at the lowest for those in the south, all the way out to 240. And as we all know, even 168 counts as FI! 

If I were in Scotland I'd be more interested, but as it is the rest of January is a write-off down here in terms of even seeing a frost. 

Yes was thinking about your dice analogy it's a good one. I think this February maybe we only have to throw 3 sixes. 🤞