The WRF is obviously slaved to the GFS but there is some freedom away from the domain boundaries; clearly the high res models are picking onto something.

And this is the 10km WRF too which won't handle evap cooling all that well. 

As I keep saying, there is real snow potential here guys; yes it may not be the long lasting cold spell you want but surely we can chase some heavy, potentially disruptive snow events that could be widespread albeit finely balanced to possibly nothing but rain.

I’m just not seeing it Q. Lots of rain, and in northern parts away from the hills, lots of cold rain.

On the hills with decent elevation it will be wintry, elsewhere much much less likely to be so.

The thing is you might well be right and I'll look like a total fool; we are one small downgrade away from it being that. Equally we are one small upgrade against widespread, potentially disruptive snow at least for the S Midlands northwards.

No, you wouldn’t look like a fool, I just think it’s on the wrong side of marginal and would need a sustained shift to bring about the scenario you suggest, and if anything there has been a shift away from it over the last day or two. However you could still be right.

Where can I view the WRF?

WRF is open source so a bunch of places have their own versions of it. Meteociel is my goto though. They run 3 GFS initialized versions 10km, 5km and 2km with longer forecasts for the lower res versions. The interest is only available on the 10km version atm but will be on the 5km tommorow. 

Thanks, Quantum - found it on Meteociel 👍

As you say, it shows the band falling as snow from the Midlands north.

Yes - a very interesting scenario - quite plausible - and even the GFS shows an ominous Greenie - all that cold air will get unstable and spill down in Feb!  How remains unresolved. My guess is that the USA cold plunge will end and then the spill will begin and become a flood as if a dam had burst,  well that’s the script synopsis  written ! Lol  

Important to set all the IMBY tendencies aside, and look at the bigger picture. 

All model output this week to date, has shown cold air either over Scotland or very close to the NE of Scotland, throughout. 

The might of the Atlantic is not seen to be crashing through. 

Quantum has been spot on with analysis that it is a marginal set up and anything could happen. 

In the short term, the most recent trend across the MO is for Atlantic lows to take a more Southerly track.

Lets see how things develop into next week.

I’m sorry to be blunt, but he hasn’t. The MetO (pros) piece this evening doesn’t align at all. 

We’ve had various incarnations of this sort of rose-tinted ramper over the years. Some of the more original posters will recall Tom Presutti. Absolutely bonkers ramper that posted absolute tripe analysis most of the time, but because it was tripe that snow rampers wanted to read he was idolised. 

This isn’t personal. I read Q’s posts and they make me smile. It’s not Q - it’s those that buy in and then melt down when it doesn’t happen as if it was somehow a sure thing that went wrong. 

I've been on here for a long time too and remember Tom well. Loved his posts.

The current set up shows that the boundary between cold and less cold uppers over the UK AS A WHOLE, is very marginal and subject to change (either way).

Q's posts confirmed how marginal things are, which is correct when ignoring IMBY.

Agree entirely - there should be some pretty good snow totals on the highland hills and anywhere from the Black Isle to Perth should see plenty of pretty Christmas card scenes. Whether that spreads south will depend on one of Qs subtle changes. Plenty of interest in the days ahead.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&time=384&run=18&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6 

May be the Greenie - will one day be called a Trumpie (but lets hope not -eh?)!

Yes but then the USA will have another Arctic plunge into the Freezer ...blast up the jet and and we will end up milder and wetter with cyclogenisis??

+372 

The background signals do suggest the "jam tomorrow" will finally come, but we are so tired of model watching.  The pub run was interesting though. the blocking to the east does look stronger and trying to back west. and the Atlantic troughing gradually being forced south. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=1&run=0&time=264&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/Posts/t24393-Breakout-thread 

Interesting showing a potential colder February especially back end...

You are probably right -  judging from our current luck (or is it just the modern pattern at + 1.5 degrees and rising)?

Or is a window into what we would have seen at + 1 degree or less - as of 60s-2010? And what we’ve lost?