Agree, although I understand the interest in SSWs and the potential correlation with ground conditions in our locality.

To be brutally honest after another ‘nearly but no’ winter season I’ll be glad when we get to early March now and forget the shenanigans of a disappointing chase for cold again and get into convection and warm sunshine.

The 18Z was a bit of a downgrade, and we haven't really seen it upgrade back.

That was always a possibility, but I probably did get a little bit overoptimistic which I think, in fairness, was because everyone else was being a little overlypessmistic.

The situation remains finely balanced, and we are still a few minor upgrades away from seeing quite alot of snow.

Any sign of Spanish plumes yet? 😊

Yes!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=348&lid=P06&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

There was a time when these forums were dominated by hopecasters and cold rampers, but now it seems to be the opposite with negativity and pessimism prevailing so it's good to have some more positive posts!

However, although a cold spell can't be ruled out the outlook is looking pretty grim at least for down here.

e.g. https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2026012306/nmm-26-120-0.png?23-12

one of the reasons why I'm so confident is that if the relatively low res models are picking this up (10km+) the high res models will show even more snow, because they are just better at resolving the effect of evaporational cooling. We aren't in range yet of models like the AROME or the higher res WRFs but we are already seeing the UKV show alot of snow for example.

Perhaps more importantly, the sort of upgrade that we need to make snow alot more widespread is really small; it really comes down to tiny variations in wind speed and direction on sunday evening and how well warmer (warmer as in high potential temperature) air aloft is mixing with colder air lower down (again referring to thetas here rather than temperatures). We don't need a big pattern shift that would now be almost impossible.

Also I follow American twitter, and those guys are going through a similar existential crisis trying to work out where their ice and snow is going to end up. The models will not handle snow and ice accumulations well, and in an environment with alot of ascent; the precip type and accumulation at the surface affects stuff higher up. So assuming the models are not going to accurately predict precip type and accumulation distributions in the state means they will also miss modifications to the boundary layer which will propagate out and cause minor changes early next week.

Also I should add despite being a clear cold ramper, I have become self aware in recent years. If its a fools errand I will caveat my posts strongly with phrases like 'a possible straw to grab is ...'. I don't think that this time, I think there is genuine potential here, and yes we might be talking about a wet cyclonic snow event rather than the arctic blast people want but I'm sure people would still have hunted for this with glee had it happened last month.

That is no surprise to me. In the couple of decades+ since the forum started there have been multiple false starts every year for the snow fans.

That’s fair - and personally I love your enthusiasm and we shall see very soon. Cold air about to our east is always better than an easterly with no cold air - which has been the case in recent years - and we have had a bit of snow already this year - which is rare enough these days. Hope too that the models have overcooked the strength of the Atlantic and the margins will shift enough to create an unexpected awakening to find a blizzard in the night has happened un- forecast  - even if it then drips. It has happened before - so won’t rule it out - even in the disappointment decade!!

Fair point - there was a brief period in the late noughties and 2010 where it was not unusual for cold weather to upgrade, but now it just seems to be the opposite.

Cold core American low does look marginally colder/stronger though. This might not be the best sign.

EDIT: The shape of the british low is more important it turns out. ICON12Z is substantially colder than the 6Z. 

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/archives/2026012312/iconeuw-2-96.png?12 

Again a fraction I'm sure evap cooling could make up when better resolved in the regional model.

I’d suggest checking the MetO social media feed. They’ve just released a video forecast entitled “Will it Snow?”

Plot spoiler alert - No

I can understand your enthusiasm for those further north, but down here in the SE the ICON delivers just what the other runs are, and have been showing since the big climbdown a few days back... 850s hovering around freezing, not going below -2 at any point, with lashings of rain. And not even cold rain, as T2Ms max out between 6 and 8.

And that'll be why there's limited enthusiasm. For us folks down here there's next to no chance of anything except average temperatures by day, mildish by night, and lots (and lots) of rain. It's interesting, I guess, that even with the jet far to the south and a slight easterly component, we're *still* seeing average conditions! (The Faversham 91-20 mean high is 7.9 in January, compared to 6.6 in the 61-90 period... shows how much it's warmed in just 30 years).

HARMONIE13Z is looking good though.

Rain

Rain

Rain

Windy with Rain

Rain

Rain

I see rather big differences between the high and low resolution models on this too, which is why HARMONIE seems consistently better than the global models. Its extremely marginal, that's partly what makes this somewhat ineresting.

It down to global warming that caused to rise in temperatures but I don't find the USA enjoying the -20C to -25c uppers are acceptable which they are not supposed to get with this global warming no matter where it came from it should be limited to -5C to -10C and -15C in Canada.  Really we should be blaming the models for their massive failiure lately as they did not pick up the deep cold in USA that ruined our chance get here.  The ensembles had been steady rising to near average now so that show a massive record breaking failure this time.  

I don't think the models handled the intense N. American cold that badly at all. It's been on the cards for a couple of weeks now. 

I would say the 12zs as a whole thus far show Cold air remaining entrenched over Scandinavia and the high rebuilding here , with the hint of incursions over the UK ( eg JMA +132)

Yes, the GFS is a bit of a shocker. UKMO has lots of snow potential next week for the North of England and Scotland. The other 12zs are all somewhere in between.