Agree with all of that R. Same here at 28m in the valley of the Wissey chalk stream in south Norfolk. I used to live  in High Suffolk at 106m - and that made a massive difference! 

The HARMONIE20z has the british LP weirdly far east. Not sure what the implication of this is, looks pretty different to anything I've seen before. 

It looks like P27 on the GFS, which is a very snowy run. 

I didn't look at the gfs 18z 850s for London . All I did was look at the 18z 850s for NYC to give me a guide and knowing their Ensembles trended colder tells the story for the UK to be honest...

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=131181&model=gfs&var=2&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=1 

once again the longer term outlook looks encouraging, but everyone is now totally shot after this failed chase.  Even on the other channel there are hardly any posts. 

It true we need them to warm up as I see they return to average if not some milder members in early Feb so hope this end this current less cold temperatures with cold rain to be replaced to real cold snowy or early spring mild dry and sunny set up.  Still surprisingly how they still get such low uppers in this global warming while we can’t even get to -10 at all.  Latest ensemble show just below 0C to -4 which no use at all. 

The Telegraph has an article today about the massive snowstorm in America:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2026/01/22/frostbite-five-minutes-half-us-snow-storm/ 

The model output part is halfway down, where there's a snow depth chart - it reaches all the way down to the Mexican border, cutting a swathe across Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas etc. This follows on from the snow in the Florida Panhandle a few days ago - yet another classic winter for our American friends. 

All that cold air has to go somewhere and it's no surprise to see such a fired-up jet in the forecast for the next week or so. It's just a shame that the models yet again underplayed the strength of the blocking to our NE, as just a few hundred miles southwards would have made all the difference. As it stands I continue to think flooding will be in the news by the middle of next week, with the rainfall total charts looking quite daunting - here's the GFS up to 144, but the other models are similar:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/26/24492/144_777UKfbk1.GIF 

The run is still coming out as I write this, but last night's 18z run just kept the rain coming ceaselessly - just look at these totals by the end of it! 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/95/3488/384_777UKbrq6.GIF 

With a possible SSW as well February could be very good with some luck.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=aifs&var=2&time=360&run=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24 

00Z GFS is rubbish! Huge Atlantic Low and milder SW flow

MetO app has 5 C and drizzle all next week 🤔

At 10 days ECM still not bad with the Low now to our East and a cold slack Northerly. GFS is rubbish! Huge Atlantic Low and an even milder SW flow

It's been fun but my resolve is weakening and I'm beginning to look for Spring 🌿🌱

Yeah, Tallyho83 mentioned something the other day about a potential SSW taking place further down the line. Might be something to keep our eyes on.

FWIW, some GFS op runs over the past couple of days have shown the jet stream calming down a bit as we head into February with some interesting synoptics shown for that time. Last night's ECM 12z ended with a Scandi High of sorts in place IIRC.

On the other hand - this was the dreaded 0z and the 06z-18z may well re-upgrade. My bet on the matter though is cold rain with sleet on hills from Derbyshire northwards - with a dollop on the highlands, above 300m. 

AI got the better of me - cyclogenesis !

GFS Op - takes the FAX scenario but with slower development of the LP at the end, 960mb Brittany Tue 27th not moving through the Channel until Wed 28th (and by then filling). The main Greenland depression gets closer with S-ly gales for Ireland Fri 30th but fades out over Rockall. By Mon 2nd LP 970mb Iceland and HP 1045mb Belarus create a broad and strong S-ly wind field for all of Britain. Both systems decrease in strength and by Sun 8th Britain is under weak SW-lies.

Strong jet running S of Britain throughout, mostly across France, and an even more southerly loop around Tue 3rd.

ECM - has a more active Atlantic, not only a Channel depression on Wed 28th but another 975mb Sat 31st translating into a N-S trough before filling Mon 2nd; then reviving 980mb Brittany Tue 3rd and hanging around C England for the rest of the week. No continental HP to be seen.

AIFS - London, maxima 5-7C, cooler Mon 2nd and Fri 6th, rain at times but less than the synoptics above imply, winds mainly S-ly but with brief N-lies 2nd and 6th. Edinburgh, similar temp profiles but a lot more rain. Differs in distribution of rainfall from charts posted by Retron above.

GEFS - mean temp and majority of ens members near or below norm a little below in S, more in N), a few outliers from Sun 1st all on the cold side, rain throughout, heavy in SW, not much in E Scotland/NE England. Chances of small amounts of snow high for Scotland in the first week.

"Still surprisingly how they still get such low uppers in this global warming..." It's all down to geography. Our prevailing westerlies have travelled over a mild Atlantic and have had lots of time to be warmed from below all the way up to 850mb and beyond, and the same applies to a lesser extent to our northerly winds.  But in the eastern half of the US, westerlies and northerlies have had a long overland track. The nearest comparison to our winter climate would be with Oregon and Washington state in the US and British Columbia in Canada. Look at the temperatures for places like Seattle and Vancouver rather than New York.

Latest ECM suggests not quite an SSW yet but these are going in the right direction.  A quick response would seem likely if we get one as well with the state of the Arctic atm.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind&ved=2ahUKEwjJ19eSqKGSAxWTTkEAHRqKMCAQFnoECCkQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0dZBbfCFNWSCwK1FfFg8jX 

And even those locations would be more like Denmark than us - as they have the whole land mass behind them to their east. We are surrounded by warm seas.

There is a warming in the strat forecast but from what I can see it isn’t forecast to be a SSW - there are signs of the zonal flow weakening.

Likelihood is March will be colder !

Best to check this link for a SSW and a reversal, the last one lasted I think 12 hours.

True. And I think the shape of that part of the US and Canadian coastline also means that a straight northerly would come from  just about overland rather than from over the sea. I've sometimes fantasised about reversing the direction of the Earth's rotation, which would presumably reverse the direction of the prevailing winds and make o ur prevailing wind an easterly..

I don't have a particular knowledge of SSWs although do occasionally check for them if the charts are really tedious for MBY. I don't think your hazy recollection is that wrong although the met office usually say there's a 70% of colder weather for the UK following a SSW, probably why they're a well clutched straw.

As you say though if the pieces fall 'wrongly' they can also cause unusual warmth, unsettled weather etc. so far from a magic bullet.

The time lag thing is probably most important bit if it's cold in Feb you're looking for. The ECM strat wind charts have an interesting signal for somewhere around mid Feb, but it's not currently showing a SSW AFAIK and winds stay positive. That signal has developed in terms of the strat winds reducing, hence the interesting bit if that signal strengthens but even if it did end up with a SSW it may not filter down to the trop, it may take 3 weeks or so to have an impact if it does and it may not lead to colder weather. Conversely you can I think have a quick tropospheric response, say 7-10 days although that's unusual I think. 

I'll probably keep a continued eye on the strat winds forecast whilst the models aren't too exciting IMBY (other areas interest will vary!) and because I find SSWs interesting as they're unusual and it's fun seeing if they have an impact and what that impact is. That said if the only thing that can 'save' my winter from a snowfall point of view is a SSW, I'm fairly sure I'll be disappointed 😂

In terms of the ground based modelling and no great change this morning IMO - for MBY wet and temps around average (wobbling around a touch) with a hint of potential for early Feb if the jet relents/angles favourably but average and wet remains the likely weather through most of the next 2 weeks. Further north of me the chances of some temporary snowfalls increase and I imagine the Scottish hills will end up white and stay that way for some time if the output verifies (I'm guessing unless it verifies at the colder end of the spread the coastal NE Scotland types will be getting even more cold rain than I will which will be 'unpleasant').

The deep FI part of the last 2 ECM runs has had a lot of blocking around, albeit on this mornings run it's not over us and LP is, albeit it's a chilly one. Suggests the current modelling is not universally backing a strong jet but as that didn't pan out well in the immediate pattern, I'll maintain a limited interest in it for now.