I just think many of us are not enamoured by the prospect of a wet snow event. We want low dewpoints and the risk of sublimation, not a one morning wonder that turns into an afternoon slush fest!

Going by current outpoint, we may very soon have another chase on the cards, so I expect enthusiasm to return by the end of next week 😃

Even a wet snow event is a big upgrade, for northern areas we are looking at even better stuff.

Look here is a height profile showing why T850 is so misleading:

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/coupegfs/coupegfs_194_12_497_11_90_0_1000_250.png 

This is a line going west to east, left to right in Yorkshire on Monday. 

Do you see how weird that looks with a temperature inversion between T850 and T775?

There is a warm layer at the 850 level which is making everyone think its much warmer at lower levels than it actually is. 

If anything this is a profile you might expect in an absolute monster snow event because comparatively very warm air at ~700hpa-800hpa facilitates more snow crystal growth and aggregation and greater moisture storage. 

Love your enthusiasm Q, but I honestly don't care it there's a transient (ultra) wet snow event down here and I'm pretty sure the SE crew aren't overly enthused by the prospect of  a heavy fall of ice cold rain. 

Keep up the posts as they're entertaining if nothing else, just don't be shocked by the deafening chorus of southern shoulder shrugs 👍

Well, I'd say chilly rather than cold - 850s now get to the frozen depths of -3C in the middle of next week here, rather than the -2 of the earlier runs.

But wait, I hear you say, Q is all excited! Well, yes, you *can* get snow all the way up to zero 850s - I've seen it happen twice in the past 21 years - but it's darned rare here at least.

I can only speak about my local area on this, but here it only happens towards the end of a cold spell, when the boundary layer is thoroughly chilled and fronts "ride up" over the cold air. This happened frequently in the 80s and 90s, and gives the classic fine snow turning to think splodgy flakes [hence the old Kentish saying "when the snow is fine, there's more behind"], then it'll fizzle into drizzle as the front clears. The cold spell of 2005 - the last textbook easterly - was symptomatic of this, at the end it snowed right up until 850s reached zero, then turned to light drizzle, leaving behind a slowly thawing mass of snow. 

I can't remember this sort of thing happening *without* snow already on the ground, though, and the crucial thing to me is all the previous events started off with deep cold air aloft a few or several days prior, which is why I look for -10s before I get excited. I suspect it's due to the nearby sea (half a mile away to the NE, or 33 miles to the south) causing things to mix out a little. Even in the 80s we'd look for daytime highs in Calais of -2 or -3 to predict an ice day here. 

These current charts? I simply can't see that there's enough time for the boundary layer to cool enough - and become deep enough - to support snow down here. If I were a good way inland (think Reading) I might be more interested, but even then - I'd far rather see some proper deep cold air in place first. 

The other side of the coin is the complete lack of frosts in the forecast down here. For snow to not instantly melt on impact and to accumulate you need all sorts of things, and a frosty ground helps no end when temperatures are still above freezing.

I'd also mention that the ICON, at least the charts I can see, only has a rain or snow precip type field, it doesn't seem to show sleet in the way ECM does. As such it falls foul of the same thing that GFS has, i.e. a flake of snow in the rain shades the area as having snow.

While the output has been frustrating so far in 2026, it certainly hasn't been boring!

And it's been so lovely today!

Posts on the local FB group with the Blackwater River just about bursting its banks round here, it has barely stopped raining all week and there's plenty more to come. If only it had been a few degrees colder eh!

Looking at GFS into next week, rather than a Greenland-centred high it is further east, around Iceland/Jan Mayen, which allows more mild air into the mix unlike the end of the 00Z run which had a proper NE wind. Let's see how it plays out from there... the blocking is stronger, just in the wrong place!

To be fair though I'd say there is a big difference between -3C and 0C, look at my sig; its not that rare. 

And I'd also argue that a frigid but very thin surface layer isn't quite what I'm talking about.

So for example look at the GFS12Z around noon for the midlands. T850 is around -1C, but T925 is -2C. What we seem to have is a tongue of warm air that starts at the 700hpa level and extends down to 850hpa. A T925 of -2C usually corresponds to a T850 of around -6C

It may not be rare for you at those 850s, but down here it's a different world. As mentioned, due to the Channel and the North Sea, down here we'll only get snow - proper snow, rather than sleety stuff - at those 850s if there's already cold air in place and a snowcover on the ground. Being inland, being further north, having some altitude all help enormously, essentially you have the climate we enjoyed in the 80s but have now lost. 

In the 80s we only needed to roll a double six, these days we need to roll 6s on five dice!

I mean its literally the best UKV run of the winter so far and people still aren't interested?

Many locations will have zero interest

We are interested Q- just can’t believe our eyes after the last few days and it is still a short lived thing - but I hear you. The numb ice of acceptance that we’ll get cold rain and muck again is thawing and life is restoring to the cold weather loving - model watching cryogenics !! 

Generally I'd say wet, temps wobbling around the average for the next 10 days or so IMBY, with some tentative signs of maybe a couple of days of chillier weather early February although I suspect a continuation of average temps with rain is more likely. 

As other posters have mentioned the picture does improve (from a coldie POV) as you head north - looking at the GEFS the Aberdeen ens are interesting, at first glance there's a small milder cluster, with the majority firmly in the cold category from 25/25th Jan to 3rd/4th Feb where the scatter increases albeit still mostly below the LTA. There seems to be a reasonable chance of a few transient snow events after the weekend for quite a few areas, so not a boring outlook away from the far south maybe. 

Whether we get any breaks in the jet to allow something a touch more interesting for MBY is currently not looking likely but you never know. The charts are sometimes only a tweak away from being more resolutely interesting so some cause for optimism for me although it'll take a strong shift and cross model agreement before I take too much interest!

It's the UKV it will be completely different in 12hrs. Terrible model for snow.

Even it look good for the midlands but I cannot excited or hard to be interested because No 1 issue is the LESS COLD temperatures will not make snow good and will either melt or wet snow which no use to me or cold rain.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=48656&model=gfs&var=201&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1

Really poor ensembles which show nasty LESS COLD temperatures throughout so any snow will not last.  Like what Retron is after is deep cold and proper powdery snow with sunshine and hard frosts.  LESS COLD temperatures bring dull, wet and sunless, so really prefer to get mild zonality back as least we get sunshine and frosts after LP move away.

That's always the case with snow.

I think the charts look good, but if it’s cold and snow you’re after they are rubbish for many

Q, I'm interested!

I don't care whether its only few flakes falling or a slushy covering but I want to see snow! 

Ideally it'd be deep and crisp and even but this snow starved Southern Welsh man will take anything he can get right now!

Keep the analysis coming.

GFS 12z gives snow for many North of the M4 and especially those with a little elevation. 

GEM 12z does likewise 

UKV 15z is similar 

All at T+ 110 which starts to get us into the more sensible range.

I'm with Q - the chase is on!

I'm in 😅 one of the few charts i've seen this winter with snow over my patch 🙃