Yes ECM actually shows snow for a time even down here next Tuesday. It soon turns back to rain of course.

There's almost certainly a correlation, but it's nothing like as strong as you're implying. There have certainly been cases in the past where it's been cold in the NE USA and in the UK at the same time.

To get this kind of correction at 51 hours is incredible. I don't think I've ever seen a cold spell come back from this close to the brink. Its a way to go, but the levels of correction needed now are much smaller. We are actually in a better position now than we were after the 12Z ECM yesterday.

https://modeles3.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf2/runs/2026012206/ecmwfeuw-0-69.png?6 

The ECM6Z has started running. The saviour is the greyish blob of low heights near that 985mb secondary low. Its dragging the whole lot further south. This feature wasn't on the 18Z set from yesterday. 

https://img.meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/cmc_gdps_eur_06/TD_PN_084_0000.gif 

We are one small update from this being completely back on. Where is everyone?

Also people do realize the low res models don't handle evap cooling well right? There is real snow potential here, where is everyone!

Is that the full picture, though?

Yes, the 'Scandi-ish' high is slightly weaker - but it ridges at least as far westwards (further!) on the current output than it did on the 12th Jan chart. And is the Atlantic that much stronger?

Seems to me that the change having the biggest impact is pressure over the Arctic.

On the 12th Jan chart, there is low pressure, reaching as far south as the area between Svalbaard and Greenland. The result is that there's a Scandy High ridging westwards on a latitude to reach the South Coast of the UK.

On the current chart, the high pressure is still there - but it's at a more northern latitude, with the westward-ridging at it's most extensive on that Svalbaard to Greenland latitude. That of course means that the CAA occurs on a much more northern latitude.

It's a pity you don't have the 'top down' view of each chart, as I think that would show the two situations even clearer.

Today's 'current situation' chart actually looks dripping with potential - a strong block to our N and NE, with energy from the Atlantic slipping SE'wards into a continent sitting under slack pressure. Yet if we skip through the run, the strength of blocking over North Africa/Southern Med and the [f***ing] AH joining to create a wall that acts as a roadblock to prevent the energy from properly sliding into mainland Europe and allowing the blocking to our N & NE to ridging SW'wards to both introduce the colder air to more/most of the UK, and divert the conveyor of further Atlantic lows on a more southerly path.

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https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2026012206/nmm-37-95-0.png?22-11 

It will take such a minor correction to get it over us in time for the frontal feature. Cold dry undercutting moist Atlantic air, there is disruptive snow potential here.

We're in a situation where the more south you are, the less likely you'll get the colder air and potential for snow.

A large majority of active MO thread posters live in the SE/S, and even the best options still out there don't show the mythical 'true midwinter easterly' synoptics that were widespread in the models several days ago.

This is in no way a criticism, by the way. We all look at charts with a heavy bias towards our own areas and to have tantalising charts dangled in front of you, only for them to be whipped away, is demoralising.

I do agree with you, though, that the general despondency is masking that some areas (I don't think MBY will be amongst them) will likely receive some good snowfall.

I think the SE has a good shot at this. Very dry cold air is moving on surface South easterly winds on monday morning. 850hpa winds at this point are more southerly, so while T850s are around -2C and rising slightly, temps in the lower layer are falling. If people are looking at T850 they are going to be very mislead. The colder air is about 150 miles further SW than the 850s imply because the surface winds are more backed than the upper winds.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm-eur/runs/2026012206/nmm-37-103-0.png?22-11 

This is the middle of Monday before the front has arrived, so this is pre evap cooling. I've seen things so much warmer than this and evap cooling is enough to bring it to snow, this is almost enough without evap cooling. 

The 6Z GEM is a good 2-4C colder at the surface on Sunday evening, with a much more backed wind profile. If the WRF was fed with the GEM I have no doubt snow would be around in the SE on Monday.

Model watching fatigue.

Even I have started looking for the first hints of spring in the models now, I can’t find much to give me hope here either, looks to me like average temps for most with copious amounts of rainfall for some. Unless of course you live above the border in Scotland and maybe parts of the northeast.

Edit: I had no looked at recent updates, there is a little more hope for the coldies as things flip flop around 😂

And the 06z GFS Ensembles for NYC have for colder which i guess is bad news for us. An ens upper mean of -23.2c on 24th. 🥶

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=131181&model=gfs&var=2&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1 

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Probably because people are giving it a break (as u should), as they have realised there is nothing other than a few random runs always a week or more away in the output suggesting a more settled colder spell - just more chilly rain. 

The promise of some transient sleet isn't going to help anyone push through  'the wall'. Most of us are currently carbo loading and resting up before the next inevitable chase!

I genuinely think you guys are suffering more from UTDS (upper temperature dependency syndrome)! The colder air is far closer to the SE than you think it is, it was literally only 50 miles away from the SE on the GFS run WRF and that wasn't even the best model. And this is without evaporational cooling enhancement.

I don't want to jynx it because obviously we can still get downgrades, but if the SE does end up with snow early next week; remember me!

Seriously guys, this is not a false chase or a straw chase; do I need to bump the short term snow potential thread early! 

https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/archives/2026012212/icon-10-126.png?12 

Look ^^

Snow as far south as Cambridge. And this is on the global model which we know will massively understate the crucial evaporation cooling factor. 

Today's low = British low

Next week's low = American low

Normal GFS probably also an upgrade. The blob of heights ahead of the American low enhances the decaying British low and pushes it further SE. GFS12Z is really quite different in this regard, quite a major change at such a short lead time.

EDIT: You even have the cold uppers back now on the GFS12Z. Surely that's enough to begin the chase again?

The GFS global model even has snow showers for your area prior to the front and its evaporational cooling.