AI version is an upgrade, so the proper one should be too right?

Definitely an upgrade if you don't like cold weather. -1 in London at 850 at 108 compared with -7 at 114 on the 6z. Stonking!

Not quite the upgrade in terms of the pattern though, a little closer to the mush from the other models!

Did you notice the behaviour of this set up over USA? It seem everytime we will get deep cold to come here out of sudden USA go to the freezer then fire up jet on purpose to keep us away with 3000 miles LP to keep UK out from the cold?  12z ensembles really boring and mostly less cold temperatures.

For me, it is a marginal improvement at T+240 than the 00Z run was at the same stage. Emphasis on 'marginal', though. 

I pointed out a day or two ago that the models were showing a 1055 high centred over the North Pole which was causing all the easterlies. If that was a phantom then the whole spell was a phantom and sadly that seems to be the case. 

The high is still there on the GFS in the mid term but it is centred way over the other side of the pole over northern Siberia and too far away to do anything for us. 

iPhone app now up to double figures by day 10 and relentless rain. We’ve had close to an inch today and it’s not stopping. 

I’d suggest go and watch the MetO ten day trend and it’ll be clear what the issue is. It’s the cold air coming out of the northern US

Hopefully next time, more caution at difficult scenarios at such distance. 

I hate the cold as everyone knows, but I still find reading this thread interesting 

Is it too early to say there's an interesting signal showing up in the ECM strat winds forecast 🤪

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202601200000

 GFS has various bouts of warming at 10hPa - may as well clutch the straws before they float off!

I think IMBY we're essentially 'there' now, sadly it's a brief chilly waft followed by a lot of cold rain as the most likely solution in the near to mid term. There continues to be a small chance of some wintriness at times depending on low track etc. and (GEFS) a few colder members deeper in FI to hint at possible interest if the jet relents (rather more on ECMs 0z set). It's frustrating because we were tantalisingly close to getting enough model agreement for confidence in the colder outcome but ultimately absent a sudden shift back that's largely vanished for my neck of the woods. 

Judging by the GEFS I'd say the chances of something more interesting increase as you head north and the sets for Scotland still look pretty chilly with correspondingly high snow rows. As touched on, ECM 0z set was of some more interest down here particularly longer term and had a similarly more rosy glow as you headed further north as the GEFS - will see if the 12z set continues with that idea. 

Given this change in balance between the blocking and the atlantic has been driven by another shot of deeply cold air flooding south over the states, I guess there may be some room for amendment on how far south that drives, where the coldest air is etc. that would tweak the positioning of the jet and maybe allow something of a reversion to a more blocked and generally cold outlook.*

In any case, I'll reset expectations back to usual winter baselines for now and any improvements that are modelled will be a pleasant surprise. 

Edit* Should say I mostly stole that from the 10 day trend although it makes sense - the models are only projecting the cold shot, so any tweaks to that modelling as it gets closer to occurring will feed in to the jet.