This climate of ours really is an exercise in patience. 

Hi Brian,

In my view, T+120 often seems to have been the edge of the realiable timeframe for much of the time ever since the unsettled spell that dominated the first half of December came to an end. I seem to recall that between Xmas and New Year, there were suggestions from the models for a while of a major build in pressure over Greenland which ultimately came to nothing as well. 

As is often said, we will just have to wait and see what happens.

Which 06z run, the ECM or GFS op run? Quite different to each other and I know which I would trust more.

00z’s were getting the slider lows absorbed back into the main PV vortex . If enough energy breaks off SE then the next low is reduced in energy and takes a more southerly route . Or something like that ! 

Yes indeed, it's making more of the ridging from the Arctic heights, forcing disruption further south

It has been so dreary, wet & windy  down here with few sunny spells this winter and it looks like more of the same for the South West.

Good to see a little snow on the Moors earlier this month and I think more than the Chilts got!

On a side note… where are people finding the ECM 6z charts please?

Meteociel, you can also find them on the ECMWF website as they are now freely available. I'd also guess Brian is working in the background to make them available to TWO. 

Looks like downgrades or sidegrades across the board including UKMO and GEM (yes this does have a 6Z). That's the bad news, but the good news is that the ECM is the best guy to have on our side, and the ensembles leave open the possibility too.  

Even at what has been quoted as the edge of reliable (ie T+120- and I'm not in disagreement with that) almost all the Ps in the ensembles put the 850mb -5°C therm down through the spine of the nation- including the mean, but even at that relatively brief timescale there are considerable variations.

For example, P11,15 and 18 have most of England except the far SW at sub -5; P12 covers the 4 provinces with it. And yet P14 has it practically absent from the UK and 17 far out in the N Sea. Now granted, these distances on even a regional scale are arguably small, only a few hundred km, but the persistent cold is only a few hundred further. A swing across all the members from a mean as low as -7 quite far out, to this 6z run in a short time, isn't necessarily convincing- slight adjustments from the Atlantic lows, a slight intensifying of the HP over Scandinavia, a shift in cell position but just a few hundred k could give more of us across the country another cold spell.

10 years ago when I joined TWO there were occasional comparisons posted by someone about the comparative reliability over a said timeframe of some of the big models- the GFS and ECM were among them and maybe MetO and the GEM- not sure. What I remember most was the ECM repeatedly tupped the others including the GFS. I wonder if that had anything to do with the GFS's temperament- Trump style swings in mood, memory or otherwise.

The EC 06z is actually an improvement  but we cannot see past 144.  

Generally speaking we see the effects of climate change and a powered up jetstream.  We were denied a white christmas because the block ended up too far south, Storm Goretti ended our recent cold spell by powering through and shortwaves north of scotland prevented a scandi ridge from building.  And now we see our coming cold spell downgraded to perhaps not even happening at all. 

 30 years ago we would have had our easterly, now it only happens after an SSW like 2018