A very good summary.

If the GFS 00z and 06z have it right with Atlantic lows crashing into the UK next week, then somewhere is going to cop it with a shed load of snow.  Present projections are that could be anywhere between the midlands and Central Scotland, but that could easily change. All very messy.

Good luck to the professional weather forecasters. Looks like they'll need it.

Fast forward 12 hours and suddenly winter is “over”.

I’ll be honest: as someone who’s mostly lurked behind the scenes for nearly 12 years, I can see why newer members are reluctant to post.

Many don’t feel they have the same level of knowledge as others and don’t want to embarrass themselves.

The very negative — and sometimes over-the-top — reactions about winter being finished can put people off commenting further, as it gives the impression there’s no point engaging with the output anymore.

I do appreciate that posts are often based on individual locations, and conditions can vary hugely from one area to another.

What I take from the current output is that this isn’t our usual winter setup, and something does feel different this season. I still think we’ll lock into some notable cold from the upcoming spell. The 6z GFS, for example, looks odd to me — dropping northern blocking entirely in the space of 12 hours. The low pressure systems being wound up could yet track further south and be less potent, which may still allow an easterly to develop.

Fingers crossed we’re back on track this afternoon…

PS - this isn't aimed at anyone specific

Anyway — back to the shadows 🙂

Good post. I would add that we should all know by now not to put too much store in changes from run to run, nor should we be too concerned(if we're in the South) if the cold is only for the midlands northwards, there's plenty time for that dividing line to change. More run are always needed.

Probably the best post in this current run. 👍

Yes, last night's 12z GEFS seems a very long time ago!

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/67/11672/graphe_ens3dyw8.php.gif 

I’m calling this the ugly duckling of the pack… 🙂

More runs needed — I’m feeling a trip to the pub (run).

Agreed. It's not worth worrying about the orientation, timing and the track of the Atlantic LP heading towards us on ~Tuesday/Wednesday next week; it's difficult enough trying to figure out what's going to happen this weekend.

(For clarity given Beast’s comments below, it is colder in the more reliable medium term and more mobile later in the run, which was not available at the time I wrote the original comment).

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf_ctrl.php?&ech=120&mode=0&carte=1 

Is this after T120? Up until that point it looks OK to me.

Well, to sort of answer your question. At +168hr there is -10°C t850hPa air over parts of the south.

Despite the seesawing of the models the GEFS ensembles for here have been quite resolute on a prolonged cool/colder than average outlook and that continues on the 12z suite. As would be expected in these situations the picture is a bit different elsewhere. Nice for the hills, but as is probably known, I’m not a fan of easterlies.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25 

I have a pet theory that the models overplay signals and then moderate over the next 24-48 hours, so I'll keep a degree of optimism going for MBY on that basis and in general it wouldn't surprise me to see colder air more prevalent further north. (As per the 6z GEFS I guess). 

It's not a collapse to mild south westerlies yet, although undoubtedly not anywhere near as good as last nights runs were in terms of ops anyway, will check the ens for signs of life when they come out. (Amusingly you could argue it's where we were a week or so back, with it looking more likely the atlantic would have too much grunt and keep HP to the east and just bounce against the block and spin around the UK).