If it stays dry for a few days I will be happy right now!  Sick of the dampness as i get older. it gets into the bones!

The latest ICON only goes out to 120 hours when the time period of interest is beyond 168 hours? That aside no op run should really be viewed in isolation in any situation nevermind one as fickle as this (especially not the 06z GFS op which more often than not does its own thing compared with the 00z or 12z). 

The timescale is and always has been from around the 25th to the 27th. Whether anything really interesting happens at or beyond then is very much to be determined!

Indeed, when one op throws this up:-

Then this a few hours later:-

It should suggest that maybe taking one ops charts in isolation and as 'correct' is a bit daft and the ens and cross model viewing is a better idea for the FI stuff. 

I'm not sure Brian would appreciate me pointing out the obvious re Ian Brown's style of contributions (and his various alter-egos) or the intent behind using him as a basis for chart 'analysis', so I'll avoid doing so 😇😜

That said the air is pretty cold to the east so there is plenty of opportunity for winter to bite back. 

One thing I note is the iPhone app has gone back to a steady decline of temperature to a max of 3C at day 10.

This is the t2m GEFS 00z data for London: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=49069&var=202&run=6&date=2026-01-17&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

T he trend is obvious.

A couple of days ago I posted a chart at t156 (I think it was) saying I can not believe ( law of dynamics/whatever) that we could get to such a point without the cold being able to back west towards and over the UK. Real time we are obviously not at that point, but in the nwp ( modelling) world that has been rectified. Now some of the modelling is showing to much energy to the west rather than disrupting and under cutting the high and the cold which is trying to back west. This I think is modelled wrong with the whole process taking far to long allowing the build of energy to the west. I think what we will see being modelled is the energy being disrupted with short waves and energy breaking off and under cutting the block, allowing for a very cold airflow and potentially snowy airflow over the country. 

That’s one run 

That is the full ensemble set from the 06z GFS so no it’s not one run. It is also backed up by the ECM and other models’ ensemble data. It was not cherry picked but posted to illustrate the overall picture

Is it?

Ensembles were decent on the 06z 

Easterly looks unlikely from the Op set up

General picture looks okay, broadly consistent with the cooler but not overly cold ens members and we have an easterly from D9/D10.

Not overly cold (850s, it's pretty cold at the surface) and not overly exciting and further on we end annoyingly close to cold upper air after that but potential for the HP to reorientate/build (or sink of course). 

Better than the 6z but not a 'stellar' run. 

There is such a fine line between us sitting under Atlantic low pressure, or being hit by cold easterlies.

Impossible to tell from the current output how this is going to play out.

UKMO isn't bad at T168 - some energy sliding SE, chilly air generally and colder upper air filtering in to the NE of the UK. 

GEM at T156 is 'stuck' with LP hitting the block to the east and filling over the UK. Could go either way from there but I suspect given previous ops it won't go particularly interesting!

(And GFS is trying to rebuild HP over Scandi towards the end of the run, albeit courtesy of an Azores ridge. It may not be overly exciting but I imagine that would bring a fairly prolonged period of cold temps at the surface for most). 

Point taken  

looking at the other models the temperature will probably trend downwards from next weekend  but I’m not convinced we are entering another proper cold spell of weather

the probable outcome will be a chilly set up that will become established with the Atlantic likely to keep the worse of the cold weather to the NE  however as ever more runs needed over the next few days 

Do mire runs imply lots of rain?

Talking to yourself is the first sign of madness!

😁