Is that different to the mean shown on the ensemble graphs? 

So my natural intelligence has known that fact for years!

Energy splitting off from the NW and running SE seems to be the key ( or part of it ) . More energy diving SE in conjunction with a better  build to our NE seems to promote a better outcome down the line .

Very finely balanced still 

The track isn't that different between ICON and GFS but it makes a big difference. The deep warm bubble in the ICON case gets swept to the south of Scandanavia, while in the GFS case it gets absorbed over Scandi and plumps the high up.

Ironically this is the exact reverse of what we saw with the 0Zs with the ICON favouring the warm bubble ending up over scandi, and the GFS flushing it to southern Europe. 

Also the warm bubble now has a little friend:

(https://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/archives/2026011612/iconnh-6-69.png?12)

See Shetland. Not sure how the baby bubble affects things, if it gets a bit stronger on the next few runs I can only see it being a positive, but it definitely makes things a bit more complicated.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/coupegfs/coupegfs_137_13_551_11_132_0_1000_250.png 

Notice the warm tongue of air in the far east; this is before the cold uppers have arrived, note how the cold arrives at the surface first. 

I feel sorry for the people at the Metoffice, they probably wished they'd waited a few more hours before publishing their week ahead forecast having de facto ruled out anything very cold next week.

I’d be surprised if this wasn’t one of those “earlier cold” options in the ensembles. If the 12z ECM and GEFS show the same timescale perhaps then it’s something to pay attention to.

I suspect it's got things wrong, just because it shows snow for your part of the world from an easterly 🤡

Bit daft looking too much at specifics but unless it's cold and dry weather you want, the 12z isn't a great run so far. It also looks more likely to slowly wander south from T240, with milder air pushing down from the NW. Entirely possible I'm wrong of course and it may hold on and/or move to somewhere more interesting later on.

Edit - and yup, my sinking pattern/comment was indeed incorrect! Holds on and rebuilds albeit with milder but still chilly uppers injected in to the mix along with more moisture and some more widespread precip/snow.

UKMO12z is closer than recent runs, much more similar to the GFS than the ICON. GEM is on team ICON.

I've not seen that forecast but they will almost certainly have sifted through the ensemble data, including MOGREPS-G which can be a steadier hand at the range we're looking at.

The ensemble graphs are what I used for my analysis. If you hover your mouse pointer over a particular X co-ordinate then it lists all the values for that date and time. (At least that's what happens on the Wetterzentrale version.)

I'll try to repeat the analysis later today using the 12Z runs to see whether prospects have got better or worse compared to the 0Z.

They’ll be looking at all model ens rather than a solitary operational output. I’d imagine they’ll be ok with their forecast unless the entire set has flipped and the other major models follow suit 

Edit: this forum is horrible to post on using mobile these days 

It never really brings any decently cold uppers in but for all that looks generally between average and chilly in the mid to long term. I suspect it'll be bouncing around the middle of the pack in the ens suites as seems fairly representative of the majority cluster in the longer term - i.e chilly and somewhat unsettled.  

Mostly upgrades all round this evening.

Whereas the GEFS ensemble mean is a degree or so less cold on the whole - just when the op run goes cold!

Very cold and severe cold look unlikely at the moment

However. There's a chance of an average CET month for January, possible slightly below which is basically the holy grail in the world as it is now. 

Brian said at the start of the winter, about the backgrounds as to why so many mid winter easterlies have disappeared,  so that virtually nailed on the chances we would end up with the beast making its first appearance since 2018 and that was a Spring easterly 

Ridiculous500  profile around  Greenland 1070mb it’s had problems for sometime with regard to that area unfortunately one for the bin