Pretty sure that'll be low level continental cold on the edge of a proper cold pool although obviously it's rather on it's own in that.

In deep FI the ECM op does show an attempted push from the cold to the east although the UK is about 200 miles too far west, I guess if the Atlantic is being given a bit too much 'oomph' it suggests there's still opportunities for cold to get closer to the UK. 

On the aforementioned windy stuff, both ECM and GEM have vaguely similar and very windy weather around D9:-

FI obviously so will look different next run but with HP to the east and an active Atlantic the chances of further noticeable wind events are fairly high I'd have thought.  

If I am reading the models correctly, it doesn't look as it the HP towards Russia is going to get steamrollored or anything close to that. 

As long as that stays roughly where it is and does not let the atlantic systems blast their way right through Europe, then the return of the atlantic might not necessarily turn into a prolonged spell. 

I think Berlin is a good line marker for this...

GFS Op - As above and more LP Sat 17th  and Mon 19th with N Atlantic still dominated by LP. Then pressure higher over W Europe , still the SW-lies but drier. No sign of Scandi HP

ECM (to T+240) similar to GFS but local LPs from Sat 17th appear as shallow troughs rather than distinct LPs

AIFS - London, cold for the weekend then maxima 7-10C for the fortnight, rain at intervals, after the weekend wind consistently in the S, strong at times. Edinburgh, temps more amplified, cold for the weekend, 10C on Mon, dropping back to a consistent 5C, rain esp Sun 11th but small amounts at any time after that, winds more inclined to SW than in London

GEFS - still cold for the weekend then mild for a couple of days then mean temp spot on norm for two weeks with good ens support. Rain in in moderate amounts in most places from time to time. (more in the SW) Forget about snow row figures.

Once again the hope exceeds reality and we continue to wait for that elusive extended winter cold spell (down here anyway). Still a few months to go however.

Well, a retreat back to Ukraine or even further east is as good as disappearing altogether when it comes to influencing our weather. It just looks very wet and not even especially mild for the next couple of weeks.

The GFS 00z is perhaps what we have to look for. Otherwise its going to be 2 weeks at least for anything interesting. Shame after that ECM a few days ago. Just shows how models can sucker us.  

Or in my case we should just call it 'the cold', since this cold spell has been extremely disappointing in the end. 

I think we almost have too much information these days and in the plethora of charts and ensembles (sic. ‘look at P156 of the AI version of the 06z run’) you’ll always find something that fits in your bag.

That’s right, IMO. I think there is research into using AI to filter output that has, in part, been generated by AI. Whether or not this will result in significant improvements in accuracy remains to be seen.

At the present time, FWIW, I look for:

1. consistency across models

2. clustering of ensemble runs, on the latter, that’s either via the stamps or data tables on TWO (similar to Darren’s ensemble watch).

Most of the rest amounts to little more than waffle and techno-babble. As I’ve said before, if it were adding value, people wouldn’t be wasting their time posting it on social media and discussion forums.

OK one positive - a 97% snow chance for London this evening!

FWIW I am not saying that once this spell ends, we will definitely get another cold spell during the rest of this winter. However, for me it should never be completely discounted no matter how poor the model runs may look at any one point in time. As I said not long before Christmas, the one thing I learned about the models pretty quickly when I first started following the output some 20 years ago is that they are sometimes just as fickle as the weather itself is. For me, the many variations we have witnessed over the past 2-3 weeks has been a very good example of that. When it comes to what happens more than a handful of days ahead, nothing is ever set in stone, one way or another.

Agreed and nobody should be writing off the winter yet or even January. However, consistent below average temperatures look very unlikely for the next 2 weeks or so(after this weekend at least). After that, who knows? Even for the foreseeable, temperatures look like being around about the average which is always preferable for me as compared to a blowtorch South-Westerly.  

You could spend an eternity reviewing the models and procrastinating every element when ultimately climatology is not bound by computers. Until we start producing our own weather on a mass scale via a computer and the click of a button 

But hey, that might please some, press the button in 20 years and provide the UK with 6 feet of snow 

The tone generally has changed in recent days driven by the freak ECM run last week. Up to that point, the cold spell was due to end around the 7th and the ECM gave some thoughts that we may end up with a sub zero CET. 

And it was the ECM that was throwing out ice age charts by todays standards and that model often gets more attention.  Meto themselves reference the ECM all the time. Shows how much they use that model, did a whole 10 min video on it last week 

Once a pattern changes, we all know its up to 2 weeks often before another pattern emerges. Mild or cold 

Sometimes, things change but we are about to enter a different kind of pattern that will probably go on for a week or so before maybe another pattern is emerging 

To be fair the pattern is still fairly blocked on a NHem wide level, its not exactly roaring zonality with that awful archetype 500 height chart showing red brown in the azores and purple/black near greenland. And Europe remains pretty cold, so if we do catch a break the cold air isn't that far away.

28 January 1986 

Without knowing what happened next one could argue that the current 'forecast' output synoptically looks more promising than the chart from 40 years ago.

Just for fun!

06z NAVGEM 

And this is not entirely without support in the ensembles.

Fully believe there will be interest for the SE at some point for bitter cold 

Positioning of the PV is currently further west, over NE Canada, than the 1986 chart. This is not generally a positive for us to get colder weather, as the cyclogenesis bombards any attempt at westwards-ridging by any block to our east.

The AH has also grown, over the last 30-40 years, more and more likely to ridge/displace towards the UK, diverting the Jet more consistently towards the UK, thus not 'allowing' Atlantic lows to barrel into mainland Europe (with blocking from the east ridging over/to the north of them)

PS - I'm not in an optimistic mood today!!