The whole thing seems to be a difference in how that low over scotland is handeled, if the upper trough pulls it north and weakens it then the atlantic low takes a more southerly track.

Just embrace the mild. 😂

Yes very unusual as usually with an east QBO combined with la nina there is a 70% or more chance of an SSW. - Still time. The PV continues to look ragged and displaced though.

Don't forget we already had an SSW, back in November.

As for FW's comment, the EC46 picked out a good chance of a cold spell from well before the New Year, as I commented at the time:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512210000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202601120000 

It offers nothing for coldies on today's output, aside from next week.

I'm facing a real internal battle at the moment between my logical/skeptical side and my emotional side. The former tells me that the Met analysis is now completely outdated and came almost immediately after that ECM run. The later wants me to keep looking for straws. There are only 1 or 2 ensembles now that keep the dream just about alive. 

If we did come back from something like T+72h it would be truly unbelievable.

That was my point actually. It wasn't more than two weeks before it started showing in the other models though. What the models say now for 10 days time don't accurately predict the following 10 days and weeks. SO in 10 days time the odds are that it will be predicting mild because of where we are with the climate but winter is certainly not over yet - but maybe a six week big freeze is!

On the plus side MJO back in high amp phase 7 by the end of the month, so a cold end to january more likely than normal.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU06_144_1.png 

Let’s see if that has the equivalent effect on the outlook that yesterday’s “opposite” forecast did. 😂

I think I'd take 2 weeks of hairdryer southerlies at this point... Snow fatigue. Fairly hits the body too.

Its curious the weak low over Scotland is so difficult for the models compared to the main thing further south.

The badly handeled bit is CAA from scandanavia that generates an upper trough that then pulls the Scottish low apart to the east and north east. The more this happens the better for us, because it stops the atlantic low from phasing with the left over scottish cold core from the low later on. If the 12Z has suddenly upgraded that initial CAA then perhaps we can keep the hope alive for 6 more hours.

I mean definitely not, but still.

Never did get the fuss over the MJO - it's just a way of looking at the GEFS rainfall charts for the Indian Ocean. As you're using the GEFS, you may just as well look directly at the Atlantic charts as it's all factored in anyway! It'd be like trying to predict synoptics from looking at the NAO charts - a rough idea, but no more. 

I think meto were hasty with their detailed update which was a cold driven message (also unusual for them). Felt like one ECM run showing a mini ice cage sparked a quick video 

Always go Mild and you’ll have a decent chance of an outcome that’s fairly accurate 

Isn’t it like 1 in 20 months now below the 61-90 average? Something like that 

This month has a chance of coming in below all CET averages, if it did, then that’s the champagne out

It’s been a notable cold spell which started before Christmas. Christmas was bitter with that easterly wind. 

I’ve not recorded above 10C since December 18th , not bad going in this age. It is sad to think a celebration is now not getting over 10C in winter haha

Except there is little consistency run to run in the operational runs in the medium term nevermind the long term. I would check the short to medium term changes over the next few runs before focussing on what follows. I’d say the medium to longer term (from now) may only become clearer by Saturday or Sunday.

I think the models were chopping and changing until today’s storm was pinned down. It’s taken a northern track and that seems to be enough to ensure that the block to the east gets steamrollered flat.